عوامل موثر بر احتمال طلاق در ایران با استفاده از روش داده های شبه تابلویی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه زن و جامعه
زهرا میلا علمی
1
(استاد/دانشگاه مازندران)
کلید واژه: طلاق, مدل لاجیت, استانهای ایران, دادههای شبهتابلویی, ریز دادههای طرح هزینه درآمد خانوار,
چکیده مقاله :
طلاق، زنگ خطر جدی است که هزینه بهسامان سازی آن بیش از هزینههای مقابله با پیامدهای اجتماعی- اقتصادی و سیاسی آن است. از اینرو، بررسی علل و پیامد آن و راههای برونرفت از آن باید در برنامههای سیاستگذاران کلان کشور باشد. در این مقاله صرفا با هدف درک بهتر از ارتباط میان آموزش و اشتغال زنان با طلاق، عوامل اقتصادی اجتماعی موثر بر طلاق در سطح استانهای ایران با استفاده از ریزدادههای طرح هزینه-درآمد خانوار شهری در سال ۱۳۹۳ و کاربرد روش دادههای شبهتابلویی بررسی شدهاست. دادههای اولیه شامل 18885 خانوار شهری بودهاست که در مرحله اول زیر بخشی از دادهها شامل سرپرستان خانوار مرد و زنِ مطلقه و متاهل (۱۶۵۰۳ مشاهده) انتخاب و در سطح استانها دستهبندی شدند. براساس دادههای اولیه و دستهبندی شده، توصیف دادهای صورت گرفت. در مرحله بعد با روش دادههای شبهتابلویی دیتون(۱۹۸۵) و قزوانی و گواید(2001)، مدل تحقیق با لحاظ سن و سواد سرپرست خانوار با تاکید بر آموزش و اشتغال زنان، اندازه و درآمد خانوار، شاغل بودن سرپرست خانوار، به روش حداکثر درستنمایی برآورد گردید. براساس نتایج حاصل از برآورد، اندازه خانوار، اشتغال سرپرست خانوار و با سوادی او و درآمد خانوار احتمال طلاق را کاهش میدهد در حالیکه اثر تحصیلات عالی برای زنان و اشتغال آنان بر احتمال طلاق مثبت بودهاست. همچنن رابطه سن و طلاق U وارونه است. یعنی در سالهای اولیه زندگی مشترک و سالهای انتهایی آن، احتمال طلاق کمتر از سالهای میانی زندگی سرپرست خانوار است.
In this paper, with the purpose of better understanding of the relationship between education and the employment of women with their divorce, the socio-economic factors which affect on divorce are investigated in the provinces of Iran by using the micro data of Household Expenditure and Income Survey in 2014 which covers 18885 households and the application of pseudo-panel data method. At first step, a subset of the data was collected include male and female who were divorced or married (16503 breadwinner) and categorized them on the base of the provinces. Data was analyzed based on the initial classification. Then On the base of Deaton(1985), and Goaed and Ghazouani (2001) the logit model of this research with pseudo-panel data and including explanatory variables; household size, the occupation of the head and his/her literacy and household income, age and age square of head, with emphasis of female education and occupation; was regressed by using the Maximum Likelihood method.
On the base of results, household size, the occupation of the head and his/her literacy and household income reduces the probability of divorce, while the effect of women's higher education on the probability of divorce is positive. Also, the relationship between age and divorce is U inverted. It means in the early years of their household common life, and in the latter years, the probability of divorce is less than the average age of the head of household.
-Kalantari , A. , Roshanfekr,P. & Javaheri, J. (2012). Consequences of Divorce A Systematic Review of Current Literature with an Emphasis on Gender-Related Issues (1997-2011). Women in Development and Politics .9(3). 111-131. (in Persian)
-Amato, P. R., & Beattie, B. (2011). Does the unemployment rate affect the divorce rate? An analysis of state data 1960–2005. Social Science Research, 40(3), 705-715.
-Boheim, R., & Ermisch, J. (2001). Partnership dissolution in the UK–the role of economic circumstances. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(2), 197-208.
-Boertien, D., & Härkönen, J. (2014). Less education, more divorce: Explaining the inverse relationship between women’s education and divorce. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, 11.
-Becker, G S., Landers, E. M., & Michael, R. T. (1977). An economic analysis of martial hnstability, Journal of political Economy, Vol 85(6), page 1141-1187.
-Becker, O.A. (2015). Determinanten und Konsequenzen von Trennung und Scheidung. In: Hill, P. B. and Kopp, J. (ed.). Handbuch Familiensoziologie. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden: 527-561.
-Bernardi, F. (1999). Does the husband matter? Married women and employment in Italy. European Sociological Review 15(3): 285-300.
-Blossfeld, H.-P. and Drobnic, S. (2001). Careers of couples in contemporary society: From male breadwinner to dual-earner families: From male breadwinner to dual-earner families. New York: Oxford University Press.
-Cherlin, Andrew (1977). The Effect of Children on Marital Dissolution. Demography, 14(3), 265-272.
-Cherlin, A.J. (2000). Toward a new home socioeconomics of union formation. In: Waite, L. J., Bachrach, C., Hindin, M., Thomson, E., and Thornton, A. (ed.). The Ties that Bind - Perspectives on Marriage and Cohabitation. Hawthorne, New York: Aldine De Gruyter: 126-144.
-Coltrane, S. (2000). Research on household labor: modeling and measuring the social embeddedness of routine family work. Journal of Marriage and Family 62(4): 1208-1233.
-Cooke, L.P. (2004). The gendered division of labor and family outcomes in Germany. Journal of Marriage and Family 66(5): 1246-1259.
-Cooke, L.P. (2006). "Doing" Gender in Context: Household Bargaining and Risk of Divorce in Germany and the United States. American Journal of Sociology 112(2): 442-472.
-Cooke, L.P. and Gash, V. (2010). Wives' Part-time Employment and Marital Stability in Great Britain, West Germany and the United States. Sociology 44(6): 1091-1108. 33
-Cooke, L.P., Erola, J., Evertsson, M., Gähler, M., Härkönen, J., Hewitt, B., Jalovaara, M., Kan, M.-Y., Lyngstad, T.H., Mencarini, L., Mignot, J.-F., Mortelmans, D., Poortman, A.-R., Schmitt, C., and Trappe, H. (2013). Labor and Love: Wives' Employment and Divorce Risk in its Socio-Political Context. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society 20(4): 482-509.
-De Graaf, P. M., & Kalmijn, M. (2006). Change and stability in the social determinants of divorce: A comparison of marriage cohorts in the Netherlands. European sociological review, 22(5), 561-572.
-Fallahi,M.A. & Deldar,F. (2016). Investigating the Factors Affecting Divorce in Iranian Provinces with Emphasis on Economic Factors. Journal of Women and Family Education, 10 (34), 1۳۵-1۵۴.(in Persian).
-Ghavami, S. (2014). The effect of income fluctuations on divorce rates. Master thesis at University of Mazandaran. (in Persian).
-Ghazouani, S. and M. Goaied (2001) Determinants of Urban and Rural Poverty in Tunisia, Economic research Forum, working paper series, No.2001/126.
-González-Val, R., & Marcén, M. (2017). Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis. Review of Economics of the Household, 15(3), 879-904
-Glick, Paul C. (1984). Marriage, Divorce, and Living Arrangements. Journal of Family
Issues, 5(1), 7-26.
-Goldstein, J.R. (1999). The Leveling of Divorce in the United States. Demography, 36 (3),
409-414.
-Goldscheider, F.K. (2000). Men, children and the future of the family in the third millennium. Futures 32(6): 525-538.
-Greenstein, T.N. (2000). Economic dependence, gender, and the division of labor in the home: A replication and extension. Journal of Marriage and Family 62(2): 322-335.
-Goaed, S., &Ghazouani, M. (2001). The determinants of urban and rural poverty in Tunisia. discussion paper, Laboratoired’EconométrieAppliquée (LEA), Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Tunis, Tunisia.
-Härkönen, J. (2013). Divorce: Trends, Patterns, Causes, Consequences. Stockholm: Stockholm University (Stockholm Research Report in Demography).
-Heaton, Tim B., Cammack, Mark, and Young, Larry (2001). Why is the Divorce Rate
Declining in Indonesia? Journal of Marriage and Family, 63 (May), 480-490.
-Heaton, Tim B. (2002). Factors Contributing to Increasing Marital Stability in the United
States. Journal of Family Issues, 23(3), 392-409.
-Hobson, B. (1990). No Exit, No Voice: Women's Economic Dependency and the Welfare State. Acta Sociologica 33(3): 235-250.
-Johnson, W. R., & Skinner, J. (1986). Labor supply and marital separation. The American Economic Review, 455-469.
-Jalovaara, M. (2001). Socio-economic Status and Divorce in First Marriage in Finland
1991-93. Population Studies, 55(2), 119-133.
-Jalovaara, M. (2003). The joint effects of marriage partners’ socioeconomic positions on the risk of divorce. Demography 40(1): 67–81.
-Kalmijn, M., De Graaf, P. M., & Poortman, A. R. (2004). Interactions between cultural and economic determinants of divorce in the Netherlands. Journal of Marriage and Family, 66(1), 75-89.
-Kalmijn, M. and Poortman, A.-R. (2006). His or her divorce? The gendered nature of divorce and its determinants. European Sociological Review 22(2): 201-214.
-Kaplan, A. and Stier, H. (2010). Political Economy of Family Life: Welfare Regimes, Economic Resources and Divorce. Paper presented at European Population Conference, Wien, Austria, September 1-4 2010.
-Kunzel, Renate (1974). The Connection between the Family Cycle and Divorce Rates, An
Analysis Based on European Data. Journal of Marriage and Family, 36(2), 379-388.
-Lee, Y. J. (2006). Risk factors in the rapidly rising incidence of divorce in Korea. Asian Population Studies, 2(2), 113-131.
-Lyngstad, T.H. and Jalovaara, M. (2010). A review of the antecedents of union dissolution. Demographic Research 23(10): 257-291.
-Lyngstad, T. H. (2011). Does community context have an important impact on divorce risk? A fixed-effects study of twenty Norwegian first-marriage cohorts. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 27(1), 57-77.
-Lester, D. (1996). The impact of unemployment on marriage and divorce. Journal of divorce & remarriage, 25(3-4), 151-154.
-Lombard, K. V. (1999). Women's rising market opportunities and increased labor force participation. Economic Inquiry, 37(2), 195-212.
-Mahmoudian, H & Khodradi, H.(2000). Investigating the Relationship between Divorce and Socioeconomic Development in Iranian Cities Journal of Social Security Studies in 1995, 1 (23), 13-41. (in Persian).
-Mencarini, L. and Vignoli, D. (2014). Women's employment makes unions more stable, if the male partners contribute to the unpaid household work. Florence: university of Florence (DiSIA Working Paper 2014/06).
- Mosaie ,M. , Mehrgan,N. & Garshasbi-fakhr, S. (2002). The impact of literacy, urbanization, household expenditure and income and its distribution in the divorce rate in Iran (A time series analysis). Iranian Sociological Association. 10(4). 3-21.( in Persian).
-Nasrollahi, Z. , GhafariGolak, M. & Parva, A.A.(2014). Divorce and its Determinants: Emphasizing on Economic Factors. Quarterly Journal of Women's Studies Sociological and Psychological .11(4). 165-186. (in Persian).
-Nowruzi, L. (2016). Analyzing the Divorce Process in Iran: Factors and Consequences. Management and Planning Organization. Macroeconomic Affairs. (in Persian)
-Oppenheimer, Valerie Kincade (1997) “Women’s employment and the gain to marriage: the specialization and trading model”. Annual Review of Sociology 23, 431–453.
-Poortman, A.-R. (2005). How Work Affects Divorce The Mediating Role of Financial and Time Pressures. Journal of Family Issues 26(2): 168-195.
-Rahimi, H. (2000). Causes of Divorce in Khorasan Province. Population Journals, 33- 34, 100-112. (in Persian).
-Raz-Yurovich, L. (2012). Economic determinants of divorce among dual-earner couples: Jews in Israel. European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie 28(2): 177-203.
-Ruggles, S. (1997). The rise of divorce and separation in the United States, 1880–1990. Demography, 34(4), 455-466.
-Ross, Heather L., & Isabel V. Sawhill (1975). Time of Transition: The Growth of Families
Headed by Women, Washington, DC: the Urban Institute
-Sasaki, Masahito & Wilson, Terry L. (1997). Marriage and Divorce in Japan. Journal of
Divorce & Remarriage, 26(3-4), 125-135.
-Sandrtrom, G. (2011). Time-space Trends in Swedish Divorce Behavior 1911-1974.
Scandinavian Journal of History, 36(1), 65-90.
-Soroosh, M. (2014). The Economic Factors of Divorce with Emphasis on Women Unemployment. Master thesis at University of Mazandaran. (in Persian).
-Spitze, Glenna & South, Scott J. (1985). Women’s Employment, Time Expenditure,and Divorce. Journal of Family Issues, 6 (3), 307-329.
-Sayer, L.C. and Bianchi, S.M. (2000). Women's Economic Independence and the Probability of Divorce: A Review and Reexamination. Journal of Family Issues 21(7): 906-943.
-Schoen, R., Astone, N.M., Kim, Y.J., Rothert, K., and Standish, N.J. (2002). Women's employment, marital happiness, and divorce. Social Forces 81(2): 643-662.
-Sigle-Rushton, W. (2010). Men's unpaid work and divorce: Reassessing specialization and trade in British families. Feminist economics 16(2): 1-26.
-Simpson, I.H. and England, P. (1981). Conjugal work roles and marital solidarity. Journal of Family Issues 2(2): 180-204. 36
-Stevenson, B. and Wolfers, J. (2007). Marriage and divorce: Changes and their driving forces. Journal of Economic Perspectives 21(2): 27-52.
-Waite, Linda J., & Lillard, Lee A. (1991). Children and Marital Disruption. American
Journal of Sociology, 96 (4), 930-953.
-Wang, Q. & Zhou, Q. (2010). China’s Divorce and Remarriage Rates: Trends and Regional
Disparities. Journal of Divorce & Remarriage, 51, 257-267.
-zcan, B. and Breen, R. (2012). Marital instability and female labor supply. Annual Review of Sociology 38: 463-481.
_||_