تحلیل و رتبه بندی راهکارهای معیشتی مقابله روستائیان با اثرات خشکسالی مطالعه موردی: شهرستان زنجان

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

زهرا آربونی ¹ , بهروز محمدی یگانه ² , جمشید عینالی ³ , حسین فراهانی ⁴ , مهدی چراغی ⁵

1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنا‌مه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
2 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
3 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
4 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
5 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/10/06 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/03/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/10/01

کلید واژه: استان زنجان, توسعه روستایی, مخاطرات محیطی, تنوع معیشتی,

چکیده مقاله :

بلایای طبیعی غالبا با از بین بردن منایع معیشتی اساسی و جابه جائی افراد از محل کار ، معیشت مردم را مختل می کنند. خشکسالی به عنوان پرهزینه ترین و مخرب ترین مخاطرات طبیعی در اکثر مناطق جهان روی معیشت مردم تاثیر می گذارد.که در این میان خانوارهای ماطق روستایی به علت وابستگی نزدیکی که اقتصاد و معیشت ساکنان این مناطق با محیط طبیعی خود دارند به صورت مستقیم تحت تاثیر پیامدهای ناشی از این پدیده قرار گیرند و موجب افزایش آسیب پذیری آنها می گردد. در بسیاری از مناطق روستایی ، بقاء و یا بهبود زندگی مردم ، تنها با نکیه بر کشاورزی امکان پذیر نیست بلکه اتخاذ طیف وسیعی از راهکارهای معیشتی لازم است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل و رتبه بندی راهکارهای معیشتی روستاییان در مقابله با خشکسالی با استفاده از روش رتبه بندی فریدمن، رتبه بندی ORESTEو آزمون کروسکال والیس پرداخته است . نتایج حاصل از آزمون فریدمن بیانگر ان است که تفاوت معناداری بین راهکارهای معیشتی در دهستان های منطقه مورد مطالعه وجود دارد . و در این میان راهکار انجام فعالیت های غیر از بخش کشاورزی با رتبه ( 83/8) و استفاده از فاضلاب صنعتی تصفیه شده جهت آبیاری زمین های زراعی و باغات با رتبه( 81/5) ، بالاترین و پائین ترین میانگین رتبه ای را به خود اختصاص داده اند. نتایج حاصل از مدل ORESTEنشان می دهد که روستاهای چایپاره پائین ، غنی بیگلو و قره پشتلو به ترتیب با رتبه های ( 3/626)، (871)و(4/889) به دلیل داشتن منابع آب ناپایدار مثل قنات و چشمه همچنین دارا بودن وضعیت مطلوب دارایی های مالی ، طبیعی و انسانی در به کار گیری راهکارهای معیشتی در رتبه بالاتری نسبت به دهستان های دیگر قرار دارند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Natural disasters often disrupt people's livelihoods by destroying basic livelihoods and displacing people from the workplace. Drought, as the most costly and destructive natural hazards in most parts of the world, affects people's livelihoods. Among them, rural households are directly affected by the consequences due to the close dependence of the economy and livelihood of the inhabitants of these areas with their natural environment. Caused by this phenomenon and increase their vulnerability. In many rural areas, the survival or improvement of people's lives is not only possible through agriculture, but also the adoption of a wide range of livelihood strategies. The aim of this study was to analyze and rank the livelihood strategies of villagers in response to drought using Friedman ranking method, ORESTE ranking and Kruskal-Wallis test. The results of Friedman test indicate that there is a significant difference between livelihood strategies in rural areas of the study area. In the meantime, the solution for carrying out activities other than the agricultural sector with a rank (8.83) and the use of treated industrial wastewater to irrigate agricultural lands and gardens with a rank (5.81), to the highest and lowest average rank to Have dedicated themselves. The results of ORESTE model show that the villages of Chaypareh Pa'in, Ghani Bigloo and Qara Pashtloo with ranks (626.3), (871) and (889.4) respectively due to having unstable water sources such as aqueducts and springs also have The favorable situation of financial, natural and human assets in the application of livelihood strategies are in a higher rank than other rural areas.

منابع و مأخذ:

• Agrawal, A. (2008).The role of local institutions in adaptation to climate change International Forestry Research and Institutions Program (IFRI) Working Paper (W08I- 3


• Antwi -Agyei Philip; Evan D.G. Fraser; Andrew J. Dougill; Lindsay C. Stringer; Elisabeth Simelton(2012) Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data, Applied Geography volume 32, issue 2


• Apata T.G., Samuel K.D., Adeola A.O., 2009, Analysis of Climate Change Perception and Adaptation among Arable Food Crop Farmers in South Western Nigeria, Paper presented at the conference of International Association of Agricultural Economics, PP. 2–9.


• Arunrat, N., Wang, C., Pumijumnong, N., Sereenonchai, S., Cai, W., (2017). Farmers' intention and decision to adapt to climate change: A case study in the Yom and Nan basins, Phichit province of Thailand, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol 143, Elsevier, Pp 672-685.


• Ashraf, M., and Routray, J.K. (2013). Perception and understanding of drought and coping strategies of farming households in north-west Balochistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5, 49-60.


• Ayeb-Karlsson S, van der Geest K, Ahmed I, Huq S, Warner K (2016) A people-centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh, Sustain Sci ,11:679–694


• Bekele Shiferawa, , Kindie Tesfaye, Menale Kassie, Tsedeke Abate, B.M. Prasanna, Abebe Menkir(2014) Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options, WeatherandClimateExtremes3(2014)67–79


• Bryan, E., Deressa, T.T., Gbetibouo, G.A., and Ringler, C. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environmental Science and Policy, 12 (4), 413-426.


• Campbell, D., Barker, D., McGeregor, D. (2011) Dealing with Drought: Small Farmers and Environmental Hazards in Southern St. Elizabeth, Jamaica, Applied Geography, 31 (1), pp. 146-158.


• Chambers, R., & Conway, G. (1992). Sustainable rural livelihoods: Practical concepts for the 21st Century, IDS Discussion Paper 296. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies.


• Dumitraşcu, M., Mocanu, I., Mitrică, B., Dragotă, C., Grigorescu, I. and Dumitrică, C., 2018.The assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to drought in Southern Romania(Oltenia Plain). International journal of disaster risk reduction, 27: 142-154.


• Evans, J., & Geerken, R. (2004). Discrimination betweenclimate and human-induced dryland degradation. Journal of Arid Environment, 57, 535-554.


• Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Abdrabo, M. K., Adger, N., & Burkett, V. R. (2014). Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1-32.


• Flannigan, M. D., & Harrington, J. B. (1988). A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-1980). Journal of Applied Meteorology, 27, 441-452.


• GentlePopular; MaraseniNarayan(2012) Climate change, poverty and livelihoods: adaptation practices by rural mountain communities in Nepal, Environmental Science & Policy,volume 21, issue none (2012)


• German L, and G, Schoneveld a review  of social sustainability considerations among EU- provedap- voluntary schemes for biofuels with plicationsim for rural Livelihoods,. Policy Energy. 765-778


• Guo X, Kapucu N (2018) Examining the impacts of disaster resettlement from a livelihood perspective:


• Habiba, U., Shaw, R., and Takeuchi, Y. (2012). Farmer’s perception and adaptation practices to cope with


• Hoque, M.A.-A., Tasfia, S., Ahmed, N. and Pradhan, B., 2019b. Assessing Spatial FloodVulnerability at Kalapara Upazila in Bangladesh Using an Analytic Hierarchy Process. Sensors, 19(6): 1302 ,https ://doi.org/10.1787/97892 64201 392-en


• Islam, M.T., Nursey-Bray, M., (2017). Adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh: the role of formal institutions, Journal of environmental management, Vol 200, Elsevier, Pp 347-358


• Jiao,W., Tian, C., Chang, Q., Novick, K.A. and Wang, L., 2019. A new multi-sensoKao S-C, Govindaraju SR (2010) A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts. J Hydrol 380:121–134


• Keshavarz, M., Karami, A. And Zamani (2010) Vulnerability of farming households to drought: A case study. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Sciences, Volume 6, Number 2, pp. 15


• Kim, H., Park, J., Yoo, J. and Kim, T.-W., 2015. Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk: A case study for administrative districts in South Korea. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 9(1): 28-


• Kumar Harish, Pandey B.W., Subhash Anand,(2019), Analyzing the Impacts of forest Ecosystem -


• Kurukulasuriya, Mendelssohn, 2008, A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland, African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2 (1), PP. 1–23.


• Le Dé L, Rey T, Leone F, Gilbert D (2018) Sustainable livelihoods and effectiveness of disaster


• Lilleør Helene Bie ; Katleen Van den Broeck(2011) Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs, Global Environmental Change ,volume 21, issue supp-S1


• Liu, X., Guo, P., Tan, Q., Xin, J., Li, Y. and Tang, Y., 2019. Drought risk evaluation model with interval number ranking and its application. Science of The Total Environment, 685: 1042-1057


• Maddison, D., 2006, The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (4308).


• Maponya, Ph., & Mpandeli, S. (2012). Climate Change and Agricultural Production in South Africa: Impacts and Adaptation options. Journal of Agricultural Science, 4(10), 48-60.


• Masoud, M.M., Azam, M.N., Mohiuddin, M., Banna, H., Akhtar, R., Alam, A.F., & Begum, H., (2017). Adaptation barriers and strategies towards climate change: Challenges in the agricultural sector. Journal of cleaner production, Vol 156, Elsevier, Pp 698-706


• Mbaiwaa, J.E. and Stronzab, A. (2010). “The effects of tourism development on rural livelihoods in the Okavango Delta”, Botswana, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(5):pp 635-656


• Meteorological Organization of Zanjan Province,2014


• Meteorological Organization of Zanjan Province,2017


• Mohammad Reza Pudineh, Mehrshad Toulabinejad, Meysam Toulabinejad (1399) The effects of drought on the activities and livelihood of rural households (Case study: Mir Javah city) Geographical studies of arid areas, Volume 10, Number 37,


• Molua, E.L., 2008, Turning up the Heat on African Agriculture: the impact of climate change on Cameroon’s agriculture, African Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics 2008; 2(1), PP.45–64.


• Ngo, Q.T. (2016). Farmers’ adaptive measures to climate change induced natural shocks through past climate experiences in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 11(15),


• Nhemachena, C., Hassan, R., 2007, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change in Southern Africa, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 00714. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.


• Nouri, Morteza; Nouripour, Mehdi (1398), Strategies for Exposing Farmers in Mehr, Fars Province to Drought: From Perception to Practice, Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Sciences, Volume 15, Number 1


• (2013). How’s Life? 2013: OECD Publishing. Retrieved from /content/book/9789264201392-


• Olsson P, Folke C, Hahn T (2004). Social–ecological transformation for ecosystem management: the development of adaptive co-management of a wetland landscape in southern Sweden. EcolSoc 9(4):2.


• PARDON P JACK)2017), An Assessment of the impacts of drought on rural livelihoods: Ward 23, Muzarabani District, BINDURA UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE EDUCATION  DEPARTMENT GEOGRAPHY.


• Pasteur, K. (2001) Changing organisations for sustainable livelihoods. Brighton, UK: Institute for Development Studies.


• Pei, W., Fu, Q., Liu, D., Li, T., Cheng, K. and Cui, S., 2019. A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment. Water Resources Management, 33(6): 2033- 2047.


• Pu Gujun , Alice Chang‑Richards, Suzanne Wilkinson, Regan Potangaroa (2020), What makes a successful livelihood recovery? a study of China’s Lushan earthquake, Natural Hazards,


• Quant Amy,(2018),Measuring livelihood resilience: The Household Livelihood Resilience Approach (HLRA), World Development 107 (2018) 253–263


• Rahman, M.R. and Lateh, H., 2016. Meteorological drought in Bangladesh: assessing, analysing and hazard mapping using SPI, GIS and monthly rainfall data. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(12): 1-20


• Régnier P, Gaillard JC, Neri B, Scuteri S, Miniati S (2008) From emergency relief to livelihood recovery.


• Rezaei, Ruhollah; Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud; Sharifi, Omid (2010) Analysis and explanation of the impact of drought on rural areas of Zanjan city Case study of Haj Arash village, Rural Research, 3, pp. 129


• Riahi, Vahid, Pashazadeh, Asghar (2013) Economic and Social Effects of Drought on Rural Areas of Garmi Count Azadloo village, Geographical perspective in rural studies, 8th year, No. 25, pp. 37


• Rudolf W., Hermann W., 2009, Climate Risk and Farming Systems in Rural Cameroon, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, University of Hannover, Germany, PP. 4-21.


• Sam, Anu Susan, Subash Surendran Padmaja, Harald K€achele, Ranjit Kumar, Klaus Müller(2020) Climate change, drought and rural communities: Understanding people’s perceptions and adaptations in rural eastern India, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 44 ,101436


• Sanchis Fernando Mestre& Feijoo-Bello Maria(2009) Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture, Ecological Economics volume 68, issue 3


• Savari Moslem, Shaban Ali Fami Hossein, Irvani Houshang, Asadi Ali (2015), Development of Strategies for Sustainability of Small-Scale Farmers' Livelihood and Training of Common Strategies for Drought Stability and Vulnerability, Quarterly Journal of Environmental Education and Sustainable Development, Volume 6, Number 3,


• Scoones I (2015) Sustainable livelihoods and rural development. Practical Action Publishing, UK


• Services on Livelihood Security and Sustainability: A Case Study of Jim Corbett National Park in Uttarakhand, International Journal of Geoheritage and Parks ,Volume 7, Issue 2, June 2019, Pages 45-55


• Shaw R, Alexander B, Chan-Halbrendt C, Salim W (2006) Sustainable livelihood considerations for disaster, volume 21, issue none (2012)


• Shaw, R., Mallick, F., & Islam, A. (2013). Climate change: global perspectives. In Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Bangladesh (pp. 3-14). Springer Japan


• Shewmake, Sh., 2008, Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin, International food policy research Institute.


• Thomas, T., Jaiswal, R., Galkate, R., Nayak, P. and Ghosh, N., 2016. Drought indicators based integrated assessment of drought vulnerability: a case study of Bundelkhand droughts in central India. Natural Hazards, 81(3): 1627-1652


• Vento, J.Ph., Reddy, V.R. & Umapathy, D., 2010, Coping with Drought in Irrigated South India: Farmers’ adjustments in NagarjunaSagar, Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, PP. 1434-1442.


• Vulnerability at Kalapara Upazila in Bangladesh Using an Analytic Hierarchy Process. Sensors, 19(6)


• Wang, Y., Yang, J., Chang, J. and Zhang, R., 2019. Assessing the drought mitigation ability of the reservoir in the downstream of the Yellow River. Science of The Total Environment, 646: 1327-1335.


• Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Li, J., Xiao, M. and Singh, V.P., 2015. Assessment of drought vulnerability of the Tarim River basin, Xinjiang, China. Theoretical and applied climatology, 121(1-2): 337-347.


• Zoljoodi Mojtaba , Didevarasl Ali. (2013). Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal Variability of Drought Events in Iran Using Palmer Drought Severity Index and Its Principal Factors (through 1951-2005). Atmospheric and Climate Sciences