مدل تصمیم‌گیری راهبردی مبتنی بر توانایی‌های شناختی مدیران سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان اردبیل
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت دولتیداود شایقی 1 , حمیدرضا یزدانی 2 , حسن زارعی متین 3 , امین فرجی 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت دولتی پردیس ارس دانشگاه تهران، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه کسب و کار دانشکدگان فارابی دانشگاه تهران، ایران
3 - استاد گروه مدیریت دولتی دانشکدگان فارابی دانشگاه تهران، ایران
4 - استادیار گروه مدیریت و حسایداری دانشکدگان فارابی دانشگاه تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: تصمیم گیری, سازمان مدیریت و برنامه ریزی, توانایی های شناختی,
چکیده مقاله :
تصمیم‌گیری جزء مهم‌ترین و اصلی‌ترین وظیفه مدیران است. تلاش برای ارتقای این وظیفه همیشه در جریان بوده و شناخت و توسعه توانایی‌ها و قابلیت‌های مدیران نقش انکارناپذیری در بهبود تصمیمات دارد. ازآنجاکه سازمان‌های مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی کشور در صدر مهم‌ترین ارگان‌های تصمیم‌گیری قرار دارد، در این تحقیق، به تبیین تأثیر توانایی شناختی بر تصمیم‌گیری راهبردی مدیران خواهیم پرداخت که چگونه این توانایی‌ها می‌توانند در پیشبرد، تعلل یا تأخیر و به ثمر رساندن برنامه‌های کلان این نهاد تعیین‌کننده باشند. این تحقیق از حیث هدف کاربردی و از نوع مطالعه موردی است. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از مشارکت‌کنندگان این پژوهش که شامل مدیران سازمان مدیریت و برنامه استان اردبیل به تعداد 10 نفر بودند، از ابزار مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته انجام و تحلیل داده‌ها با کدگذاری باز به روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی انجام پذیرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهند مدیریت در تصمیم‌گیری از روی دادن چالش‌ها و بحران‌ها پیش از وقوع بحران پیشگیری می کند؛ در صورت بروز بحران بیش از آنکه اطاله یابد یا به بهمنی از مشکلات تبدیل شوند، رفع می‌شود. توانایی حل مسأله روند و نیل به اهداف به صورت نظام‌مند را تسریع می کند. با خلاقیت پیش از آنکه مسائل و بحران‌ها سازمان را از پای درآورند از مسیرهای آسان، کم‌هزینه و سریع حل و تفکر انتقادی کارشناسان مباحث خسارت‌بار یا مخاطره‌آمیز را طرح و بستری برای حل آن ایجاد می‌کنند.
Decision making is one of the most important duties of managers and there has been an ongoing effort to improve this. In fact, recognizing and developing managers’ abilities and capabilities have an undeniable role in improving decision making. Hence, in the present study, the researchers investigated the impact of managers’ cognitive abilities on their strategic decision making, and how these abilities can be decisive in advancing, procrastinating or delaying and scoring the institution's grand plans. This research is a practical study in terms of purpose. The participants of the study included 10 managers of the Management and Program Organization of Ardabil province. The data was collected through a semi-structured interview and categorized using open coding and qualitative content analysis. The results revealed that management in decision-making prevents challenges and crises, and in case they occur, it alleviates them before they become insoluble and long-lasting. It was also found that the ability to solve problems accelerates the process of achieving goals in a systematic way and that creativity can help solve problems and crises with easy, low-cost and fast solutions. It can be concluded that experts’ critical thinking can address challenging issues and provide a ground for their solutions.
Ahange , A,. Abedin ,A & Fathabadi ,J ., (2010). The relationship between personality types and problem solving styles in university staff. Journal of Applied Psychology, Volume 3, Number 4(12), 40-61. [Persian]
Alwani, S.M, (2015), General Management, Tehran, Ney Publishing, 1-524. [Persian]
Alwani, S.M, (2020), Decision Making and Determining Government Policy, Samat Publications, Third Edition, 1-248. [Persian]
Anderson KB, Graham LM (2020). Hostile Attribution Bias. Encyclopedia of Social Psychology. SAGE Publications, Inc. pp. 446–447
Beck, C.T.(1993). Qualitative research: The evaluation of its credibility, fittingness, and auditability. Western journal of nursing research, 15(2), 263-266.
Beh Mehr, M., (2018). A Study of Personality Factors with Managers' Styles, Ferdowsi University Publishers.
Berg, A. R. Smith (2018). The feeling of what happens: Body and emotion in the making of consciousness. Houghton Mifflin, 1-400.
Blake, Reid .(2012), Classification of Concepts in Communication, Social Sciences, 3(1), 85-89
Bizerman, M., Danae, M.,(2017). Managers and Decision Challenges, Translate by Sarzeim, A., Tehran, Rhino Publishing, 1-532. [In Persian]
Bolden, G., (2006). Creative Thinking, Transelate By Alimirzaei, S., Tehran, Sargol Publishing, 1-70.
Cervone, D.(1991).The two disciplines of personality psychology. Psychological Science, 2, 371–377.
Damasio, A. R. (1999). The feeling of what happens: Body and emotion in the making of consciousness. Houghton Mifflin, 1-400.
Duron, R., Limbach, B., & Waugh, W. (2006). Critical thinking framework for any discipline. International Journal of Teaching and Learning in Higher Education, 17(2), 160-166.
Elo, Satu & Kyngas, Helvi (2007). The Qualitative Content Analysis Process. Journal of a Advanced Nursing. 2008. Wiley online liberary Process, 62(1), 107-115.
Fischer, T. B. (2007). The Theory and Practice of Strategic Environmental Assessment; Towards a More Systematic Approach, earth scan, 1-208.
Goodarzi, M.A.,(2017). Problem Solving and Decision Making Skills, Tehran, University Publishing Center, 1-177. [Persian]
Guba, E.G.(1981). Criteria for assessing the trustworthiness of naturalistic inquiries. Educational Communication and TechnologyJournal,29(2),75-91
Gul, R., Cassum, S., Ahmad, A., Khan, S., Saeed, T., & Parpio, Y. (2010). Enhancement of critical thinking in curriculum design and delivery: A randomized controlled trial for educators. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2(2), 3219-3225.
Halpern.DF.,Roediger.HL., and Sternberg. RJ.(2007). Critical thinking in psychology. Camberidge University Press. New York.
Hemmati Nadoost Gilani, M., Peymani, S. A.,(2017) Knowledge Management in Organizations, First International Conference on Management, Accounting, Educational Sciences and Resistance Economics; Action and practice. [Persian]
Hontalla.Roediger. and Flatt. RJ.(2013). Critical thinking in psychology. Camberidge University Press. New York.
Huber, G. P. (1980). Managerial decision making. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman and Company. A. Vbri, J. Vecsenyi/Designing decision support methods, 151, 140-158.
Hsiu-Fang, Hsieh & Shannon, Sarah. E. (2005). Three Approaches To Qualitative Content Analysis. Qualitative Health Research,15(9), 1277-1288.
Jokar, Bahram, and Rahimi, Mehdi. (2012). The effect of anger emotion and cognitive styles on the decision-making process with the mediation of metacognitive tendencies: presenting an integrated model in decision-making. Educational Psychology (Psychology and Educational Sciences), 9(27), 67-95. [Persian]
Kahneman, D.(2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Random House Audio
Kharazi K.(2017). The impact of cognitive sciences on contemporary psychology, Cognitive science news. 34: 77-82 [Persian]
Khorami A., Mohammadzadeh, ,A.,(2013). Noro Marketing and Decision Making, Tehran, Shakib Publications, 1-145. [Persian]
Kim Hyunji, Stolte1 Moritz, Humphreys, Glyn W., (2020), The relations between temporal and social perceptual biases: Evidence from perceptual matching, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, 81(3), 599– 606
Kim Hyunji, Stolte1 Moritz, Humphreys, Glyn W., (2020), The relations between temporal and social perceptual biases: Evidence from perceptual matching, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, 81(3), 599–606
Kummar, A.(1998), “The influence of meta cognition on managerial hiring Decision making”, Dissertation submitted to the faculty of the Virginia polytechnic instituted and state university for the degree of doctor of philosophy in Education and human development, 1-156.
Lincoln, Y.S.(1995). Emerging criteria for quality in qualitative and interpretive research. Qualitative inquiry, 1(3), 275-289.
LuisAmador-Hidalgo, Pablo Brañas-Garza (2021) Cognitive abilities and risk-taking: Errors, not preferences. European Economic Review.Volume 134,1-32.
Mansoorian, S.,(2017). Conceptual Model of Decision Making with Cognitive Approach, New Cognitive Science Quarterly, Volume 21, Number 1.
Martin, L. B.and Bandali, F.and Lamoureux, T.(2005), “ survey of literature pertaining to decision making styles and individual factors”, Project manager, Department of national defence,DRDC-Toronto scientific Authority.
Mazloomy Mahmoodabad, S.S., , Nadrian, N., Nahangi, H., (2012). Critical thinking ability and its associated factors among preclinical students in Yazd Shaheed Sadoughi University of Medical Science, University of Medical Sciences, 26(2), 50-57.
Miller,G (2003), The cognitive revolution: A historical perspective, Trends in cognitive science, 7(3), 141-144.
Mitchell, T. R. & L. R. Beach; (1990). Do I Love Thee? Let me Count, Toward an Understanding of Intuitive and Automatic Decision Making, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 47(1), 1-20
Mobaraki M., Mohammad Colabi, A., Mehrab, R. (2012). Entrepreneurs' decision making models (methods, frameworks and mind maps). Samt Publications. Tehran, 1-332. [Persian]
Motedayen, M.M., & Akbari Moghadam, N.,(2019). Problem-solving and decision-making skills, Tehran, Aha Publishing, 1-180. [Persian]
Mueller, CA.(2009), “Influence of transformational leader ship style on decision making style and technology readiness ”,Proquest dissertation and thesis,For degree Doctor of management in organizational leader ship.
Patalano, Roberta (2003). ”Beyond rationality: Images as guide-lines to choice”, Working paper series, University of Torino, (5).
Padilla, L. M., Creem-Regehr, S. H., Hegarty, M., & Stefanucci, J. K. (2018). Decision making with visualizations: a cognitive framework across disciplines. Cognitive research: principles and implications, 3(1), 1-25.
Rezaeian, S.,(2019). Conceptual Model of Decision Making with Cognitive Approach, New Cognitive Sciences Quarterly, 21(1), 1-20. [Persian]
Roshini, R., (2012). Management Skills and job Satisfaction in Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Journal of Educational leader ship, 1(3). 143-162.
Sarfarazi, Mehrzad, Sephernia, Rosita, & Kaousi, Ismail. (1389). The effect of creativity on improving the decision-making of managers "case study". Innovation and creativity in humanities, 1(1), 85-98. [Persian]
Salehodejio, sh,.(2018), “Individual differences in compensatory decision-making style and need for closure as correlate of subjective decision complexity and difficulty”, Personality and Individual differences,30,(699-710).
Santrak, J.,(2014). Background of Santrak Psychology, Firoozbakht, M., Tehran, Rasa Publishing.
Sarfarazi, M., Gholamreza M., and Gholamabbas V.,(2008). Evaluation of the effectiveness of decision-making style of innovative managers in comparison with compatible managers, 3rd International Management Conference, Tehran, Ariana Research Group. [Persian]
Shaari Nejad, A.A,.(2002). General Psychology, Tehran: Toos, 1-1059. [Persian]
Simon, H. A., (2008), Making Management Decisions: The role of Intuition and Emotion; Academy of Management Executive; No. 1, Pp. 57-64
Skagerlund, Kenny(2022). Decision-making competence and cognitive abilities: Which abilities matter?Behavioral decision making, Volume35, Issue1
Soleimani, GA.,(2011). Psychology of Cognition, and Decision Making in Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy Quarterly, 25(4).975-994. [Persian]
Solso, R,AL.,(2012). Cognitive Psychology, Farhad, M., Tehran, Roshd Publications, 1-712.
Sternberg, J., (2011). Applied Intelligence, Babazadeh, M., ، Tehran: Savalan Publishing, 1-536.
Tabrizi, Mansoura, (2013), "Analysis of qualitative content from the perspective of analogical and inductive approaches", Social Sciences Quarterly, 21(64), 105-138. [Persian]
Thomas O, (2021) "Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?". Management Review Quarterly. 68 (2): 107 143.
Weaver, E. A., & Stewart, T. R. (2012). Dimensions of judgment: Factor analysis of individual differences. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(4), 402-413.
Weinstein, N. and Brow, K.and Ryan, R.(2009) , “A multi- method of the effects of mindfulness on stress attribution coping and emotional well-being”, Journal of research in personality, 43,(374-385).
Yarmohammadi, Wasel, M., Zoghi Paydar, M.R., and Mohammadi, Abbas. (2017). The effect of exploration training on the cognitive processes of critical thinking; Analysis, inference, evaluation, deductive and inductive reasoning, Biquarterly Journal of Cognitive Strategies in Learnin, 5(8), 79-92. [Persian
_||_Ahange , A,. Abedin ,A & Fathabadi ,J ., (2010). The relationship between personality types and problem solving styles in university staff. Journal of Applied Psychology, Volume 3, Number 4(12), 40-61. [Persian]
Alwani, S.M, (2015), General Management, Tehran, Ney Publishing, 1-524. [Persian]
Alwani, S.M, (2020), Decision Making and Determining Government Policy, Samat Publications, Third Edition, 1-248. [Persian]
Anderson KB, Graham LM (2020). Hostile Attribution Bias. Encyclopedia of Social Psychology. SAGE Publications, Inc. pp. 446–447
Beck, C.T.(1993). Qualitative research: The evaluation of its credibility, fittingness, and auditability. Western journal of nursing research, 15(2), 263-266.
Beh Mehr, M., (2018). A Study of Personality Factors with Managers' Styles, Ferdowsi University Publishers.
Berg, A. R. Smith (2018). The feeling of what happens: Body and emotion in the making of consciousness. Houghton Mifflin, 1-400.
Blake, Reid .(2012), Classification of Concepts in Communication, Social Sciences, 3(1), 85-89
Bizerman, M., Danae, M.,(2017). Managers and Decision Challenges, Translate by Sarzeim, A., Tehran, Rhino Publishing, 1-532. [In Persian]
Bolden, G., (2006). Creative Thinking, Transelate By Alimirzaei, S., Tehran, Sargol Publishing, 1-70.
Cervone, D.(1991).The two disciplines of personality psychology. Psychological Science, 2, 371–377.
Damasio, A. R. (1999). The feeling of what happens: Body and emotion in the making of consciousness. Houghton Mifflin, 1-400.
Duron, R., Limbach, B., & Waugh, W. (2006). Critical thinking framework for any discipline. International Journal of Teaching and Learning in Higher Education, 17(2), 160-166.
Elo, Satu & Kyngas, Helvi (2007). The Qualitative Content Analysis Process. Journal of a Advanced Nursing. 2008. Wiley online liberary Process, 62(1), 107-115.
Fischer, T. B. (2007). The Theory and Practice of Strategic Environmental Assessment; Towards a More Systematic Approach, earth scan, 1-208.
Goodarzi, M.A.,(2017). Problem Solving and Decision Making Skills, Tehran, University Publishing Center, 1-177. [Persian]
Guba, E.G.(1981). Criteria for assessing the trustworthiness of naturalistic inquiries. Educational Communication and TechnologyJournal,29(2),75-91
Gul, R., Cassum, S., Ahmad, A., Khan, S., Saeed, T., & Parpio, Y. (2010). Enhancement of critical thinking in curriculum design and delivery: A randomized controlled trial for educators. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2(2), 3219-3225.
Halpern.DF.,Roediger.HL., and Sternberg. RJ.(2007). Critical thinking in psychology. Camberidge University Press. New York.
Hemmati Nadoost Gilani, M., Peymani, S. A.,(2017) Knowledge Management in Organizations, First International Conference on Management, Accounting, Educational Sciences and Resistance Economics; Action and practice. [Persian]
Hontalla.Roediger. and Flatt. RJ.(2013). Critical thinking in psychology. Camberidge University Press. New York.
Huber, G. P. (1980). Managerial decision making. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman and Company. A. Vbri, J. Vecsenyi/Designing decision support methods, 151, 140-158.
Hsiu-Fang, Hsieh & Shannon, Sarah. E. (2005). Three Approaches To Qualitative Content Analysis. Qualitative Health Research,15(9), 1277-1288.
Jokar, Bahram, and Rahimi, Mehdi. (2012). The effect of anger emotion and cognitive styles on the decision-making process with the mediation of metacognitive tendencies: presenting an integrated model in decision-making. Educational Psychology (Psychology and Educational Sciences), 9(27), 67-95. [Persian]
Kahneman, D.(2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Random House Audio
Kharazi K.(2017). The impact of cognitive sciences on contemporary psychology, Cognitive science news. 34: 77-82 [Persian]
Khorami A., Mohammadzadeh, ,A.,(2013). Noro Marketing and Decision Making, Tehran, Shakib Publications, 1-145. [Persian]
Kim Hyunji, Stolte1 Moritz, Humphreys, Glyn W., (2020), The relations between temporal and social perceptual biases: Evidence from perceptual matching, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, 81(3), 599– 606
Kim Hyunji, Stolte1 Moritz, Humphreys, Glyn W., (2020), The relations between temporal and social perceptual biases: Evidence from perceptual matching, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, 81(3), 599–606
Kummar, A.(1998), “The influence of meta cognition on managerial hiring Decision making”, Dissertation submitted to the faculty of the Virginia polytechnic instituted and state university for the degree of doctor of philosophy in Education and human development, 1-156.
Lincoln, Y.S.(1995). Emerging criteria for quality in qualitative and interpretive research. Qualitative inquiry, 1(3), 275-289.
LuisAmador-Hidalgo, Pablo Brañas-Garza (2021) Cognitive abilities and risk-taking: Errors, not preferences. European Economic Review.Volume 134,1-32.
Mansoorian, S.,(2017). Conceptual Model of Decision Making with Cognitive Approach, New Cognitive Science Quarterly, Volume 21, Number 1.
Martin, L. B.and Bandali, F.and Lamoureux, T.(2005), “ survey of literature pertaining to decision making styles and individual factors”, Project manager, Department of national defence,DRDC-Toronto scientific Authority.
Mazloomy Mahmoodabad, S.S., , Nadrian, N., Nahangi, H., (2012). Critical thinking ability and its associated factors among preclinical students in Yazd Shaheed Sadoughi University of Medical Science, University of Medical Sciences, 26(2), 50-57.
Miller,G (2003), The cognitive revolution: A historical perspective, Trends in cognitive science, 7(3), 141-144.
Mitchell, T. R. & L. R. Beach; (1990). Do I Love Thee? Let me Count, Toward an Understanding of Intuitive and Automatic Decision Making, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 47(1), 1-20
Mobaraki M., Mohammad Colabi, A., Mehrab, R. (2012). Entrepreneurs' decision making models (methods, frameworks and mind maps). Samt Publications. Tehran, 1-332. [Persian]
Motedayen, M.M., & Akbari Moghadam, N.,(2019). Problem-solving and decision-making skills, Tehran, Aha Publishing, 1-180. [Persian]
Mueller, CA.(2009), “Influence of transformational leader ship style on decision making style and technology readiness ”,Proquest dissertation and thesis,For degree Doctor of management in organizational leader ship.
Patalano, Roberta (2003). ”Beyond rationality: Images as guide-lines to choice”, Working paper series, University of Torino, (5).
Padilla, L. M., Creem-Regehr, S. H., Hegarty, M., & Stefanucci, J. K. (2018). Decision making with visualizations: a cognitive framework across disciplines. Cognitive research: principles and implications, 3(1), 1-25.
Rezaeian, S.,(2019). Conceptual Model of Decision Making with Cognitive Approach, New Cognitive Sciences Quarterly, 21(1), 1-20. [Persian]
Roshini, R., (2012). Management Skills and job Satisfaction in Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Journal of Educational leader ship, 1(3). 143-162.
Sarfarazi, Mehrzad, Sephernia, Rosita, & Kaousi, Ismail. (1389). The effect of creativity on improving the decision-making of managers "case study". Innovation and creativity in humanities, 1(1), 85-98. [Persian]
Salehodejio, sh,.(2018), “Individual differences in compensatory decision-making style and need for closure as correlate of subjective decision complexity and difficulty”, Personality and Individual differences,30,(699-710).
Santrak, J.,(2014). Background of Santrak Psychology, Firoozbakht, M., Tehran, Rasa Publishing.
Sarfarazi, M., Gholamreza M., and Gholamabbas V.,(2008). Evaluation of the effectiveness of decision-making style of innovative managers in comparison with compatible managers, 3rd International Management Conference, Tehran, Ariana Research Group. [Persian]
Shaari Nejad, A.A,.(2002). General Psychology, Tehran: Toos, 1-1059. [Persian]
Simon, H. A., (2008), Making Management Decisions: The role of Intuition and Emotion; Academy of Management Executive; No. 1, Pp. 57-64
Skagerlund, Kenny(2022). Decision-making competence and cognitive abilities: Which abilities matter?Behavioral decision making, Volume35, Issue1
Soleimani, GA.,(2011). Psychology of Cognition, and Decision Making in Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy Quarterly, 25(4).975-994. [Persian]
Solso, R,AL.,(2012). Cognitive Psychology, Farhad, M., Tehran, Roshd Publications, 1-712.
Sternberg, J., (2011). Applied Intelligence, Babazadeh, M., ، Tehran: Savalan Publishing, 1-536.
Tabrizi, Mansoura, (2013), "Analysis of qualitative content from the perspective of analogical and inductive approaches", Social Sciences Quarterly, 21(64), 105-138. [Persian]
Thomas O, (2021) "Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?". Management Review Quarterly. 68 (2): 107 143.
Weaver, E. A., & Stewart, T. R. (2012). Dimensions of judgment: Factor analysis of individual differences. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(4), 402-413.
Weinstein, N. and Brow, K.and Ryan, R.(2009) , “A multi- method of the effects of mindfulness on stress attribution coping and emotional well-being”, Journal of research in personality, 43,(374-385).
Yarmohammadi, Wasel, M., Zoghi Paydar, M.R., and Mohammadi, Abbas. (2017). The effect of exploration training on the cognitive processes of critical thinking; Analysis, inference, evaluation, deductive and inductive reasoning, Biquarterly Journal of Cognitive Strategies in Learnin, 5(8), 79-92. [Persian