حباب‌های سفته‌بازی در بازار ارز دیجیتالی بیت‌کوین
محورهای موضوعی : دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادارمجید هاتفی مجومرد 1 , ام البنین جلالی 2 , محمد رحیمی قاسم‌آبادی 3
1 - پژوهشگر پسا دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 - دانشجوی دوره دکتری یزد، ایران
3 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
کلید واژه: بیت‌کوین, ارز دیجیتالی, حباب‌های یگانه و چندگانه, رفتار انفجاری ملایم, دیکی فولر پنجره غلتان, سوپریمم دیکی‌فولر تعمیم یافته,
چکیده مقاله :
در سال‌های اخیر، ارزهای دیجیتالی توجه سرمایه‌گذاران زیادی را به خود جلب کرده‌اند. یکی از این ارزهای دیجیتالی که بیش از سایر ارزها مورد توجه قرار گرفته و در معاملات استفاده می‌شود، بیت‌کوین است. بررسی قیمت‌های بیت‌کوین حاکی از نوسانات شدید در این بازار است که احتمال حبابی بودن آن را افزایش می‌دهد. در این راستا با استفاده از داده‌های ماهانه در دوره زمانی 08/2013 تا 01/2018 حبابی بودن این بازار و نوع حباب‌های موجود از حیث یگانه یا چندگانه بودن مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. روش مورد استفاده در این مطالعه ریشه واحد بازگشتی چوله به راست است که در قالب روش‌های SADF، RADF و GSADF مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. آزمونRADFچهار دوره حبابی (03/ 2015- 04/ 2015، 12/ 2015 03/ 2016، 07/ 2016- 01/ 2017، 09/ 2017 محو نشده است) را نشان داد که دارای ساختار یگانه بودند.همچنینآزمونSADF نیز یک دوره حبابی بلندمدت پیوسته (08/ 2016- محو نشده است) که دارای ساختار یگانه را نشان داد. بر مبنای آزمونGSADFسه دوره حبابی (03/ 2015- 05/ 2015، 12/ 2015- 03/ 2016، 07/ 2016- محو نشده است) وجود داشت که دو دوره دارای ساختار یگانه (03/ 2015- 05/ 2015، 12/ 2015- 03/ 2016) و دوره سوم دارای ساختار چندگانه (07/ 2016- محو نشده است) بودند
In recent years, digital currencies have attracted many investors. Bitcoin is one of those digital currencies that are considered to be trading more than other currencies. A review of Bitcoin prices is indicative of fluctuations in this market, which increases probability of existing bubble. In this regard, using the monthly data for the period from 08/2013 to 01/2018, the bubble of this market and the single or multiple type of bubbles were investigated. The method used in this study is A recursive unit root test, which was used in the form of SADF, RADF and GSADF tests. Based on the RADF test, there were four bubble periods (March 2015- April 2015, Decembar 2015- March 2016, July 2016- January 2017, September 2017- not disappeared) that had single structures. Based on the SADF test, there was a continuous long bubble period (August 2016- not disappeared), which has a single structure and has not yet exploded. Finally, based on the GSADF test, there were three bubble periods (March 2015- May 2015, Decembar 2015- March 2016, July 2016- not disappeared), that two first bubbles have same structure (March 2015- May 2015, Decembar 2015- March 2016) and the third one has multiple structure (July 2016- not disappeared).
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