اثر سال‌خوردگی جمعیت بر آلودگی زیست محیطی در ایران
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت محیط زیست
نوید کارگر ده بیدی
1
,
محمدحسن طرازکار
2
1 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران *(مسوول مکاتبات).
2 - استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.
تاریخ دریافت : 1348/10/11
تاریخ پذیرش : 1348/10/11
تاریخ انتشار : 1348/10/11
کلید واژه:
سال‌خوردگی جمعیت,
انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن,
شهرنشینی,
ARDL,
ایران,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: جمعیت جهان در حال پیر شدن است و تقریباً تمام کشورها با روند افزایش تعداد و نسبت افراد مسن به کل جمعیت مواجه هستند. پیش‌بینی می شود که از سال 2015 تا 2030 جمعیت افراد مسن در ایران دو برابر خواهد شد. همچنین بیش از نیمی از جمعیت جهان در مناطق شهری زندگی می کنند، اما این نرخ در ایران بیش از 70 درصد است. بر این اساس هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اثر سال‌خوردگی جمعیت و گسترش شهرنشینی بر انتشار آلودگی در ایران طی دوره 1350 تا 1392 است. روش بررسی: در این پژوهش با توجه به نتایج ایستایی متغیرها از روش هم جمعی در قالب رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد که رابطه سال‌خوردگی جمعیت با آلودگی هوا در ایران به صورت U- وارون است و با افزایش نسبت افراد مسن به کل جمعیت، در ابتدا سرانه انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن افزایش می یابد، اما در ادامه مقدار انتشار آن روندی نزولی پیدا می‌کند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که افزایش نسبی شهرنشینی در کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت منجر به افزایش انتشار آلودگی می‌شود. علاوه بر موارد فوق، تولید ناخالص داخلی و مصرف انرژی سرانه در هر دو حالت کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت رابطه مثبت و معنی‌داری با سرانه انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربندارند. پیشرفت تکنولوژی نیز تنها در بلندمدت رابطه ای مثبت و معنی‌داری با انتشار آلودگیدارد. بحث و نتیجه گیری: در این مطالعه با توجه به این که ضریب شهرنشینی دارای بیش‌ترین اثرگذاری برانتشار آلودگی است (06/3 در بلندمدت)، می بایست تمهیداتی از جانب سیاست‌گزاران اتخاذ شود تا رشد شهرها کم‌ترین آسیب را به محیط زیست وارد نماید. به عبارتی برنامه های توسعه شهرها هماهنگ با مباحث زیست محیطی تدوین شود.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Abstract Background and Objective: The world’s population is ageing and virtually every country in the world is experiencing growth in the number and proportion of older persons in its population. It is predicted that old population will double from 2015 to 2030 in Iran. Actually, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and urbanization rate is over 70% in Iran. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of population ageing and urbanization on air pollution over the period of 1971 to 2013 in Iran. Method: In this study, based on the results of variables stationary, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was applied. Findings: The results revealed that the relationship between old population and CO2 emission per capita is inverted U-shaped and statistically significant, and CO2 emission initially increases with the increase of old population and then drops with the increase of old population. Moreover, the results imply that a relative increase in urbanization in the short and long terms is associated with the increase of CO2 emissions per capita. It was also found that gross domestic production and energy consumption per capita positively affect CO2 emissions per capita in the short and long terms. Technological advances have a significant positive effect on per capita CO2 emissions in the long term. Discussion and Conclusion: In this study, according to the urbanization coefficient which has the greatest influence on pollution emissions (3.63 in the long term), the measures should be taken by policymakers to minimize the damage of urbanization growth to the environment. In other words, urban development plans should be designed in harmony with the environmental issues.
منابع و مأخذ:
Reference
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Yavari, K. & Ahmadzadeh, K. (2010). Investigating the relationship between energy consumption and population structure (case study: Southwest Asia). Energy Economics Studies, 7(25): 33–62. (In Persian).
Dalton, M., B. O'Neill, A. Prskawetz, L. Jiang & J. Pitkin. (2008). Population Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States, Energy Economics , 30: 642–675.
Liddle, B. (2011). Consumption-driven environmental impact and age-structure change in OECD countries: A cointegration-STIRPAT analysis. Demographic Research, 24, 749–770.
Liddle, B. (2004). Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: Using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport. Population and Environment, 26(1), 23–39.
York, R. (2007). Demographic Trends and Energy Consumption in European Union Nations (1960–2025), Social Science Research, Vol. 36, PP. 855–872 .
Okada, A. (2012). Is an increased elderly population related to decreased CO2 emissions from road transportation? Energy Policy, 45, 286–292.
Liddle, B., & Lung, S. (2010). Age structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption–related environmental impacts. Population and Environment, 31, 317–343.
Liddle, B. (2014). Impact of Population, Age Structure and Urbanization on Carbon Emissions/Energy Consumption: Evidence From Macro- Level, Cross-Country Analyses; Population and Environment, 35: 286- 304.
Hassan, K., & Salim, R. (2015). Population ageing, income growth and CO2 emission: Empirical evidence from high income OECD countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(1), 54-67.
Falahati, F., & Hekmatifarid, S. (2014). Investigating the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in the provinces of Iran (Panel data approach). Environmental and Energy of Economics Studies, 2(6), 129-150.
Martínez- Zarzoso, I., & Maruotti, A. (2011). The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecological Economics, 70(7), 1344-1353.
Shahbaz, M., Sbia, R., Hamdi, H., & Ozturk, I. (2014). Economic growth, electricity consumption, urbanization and environmental degradation relationship in United Arab Emirates. Ecological Indicators, 45, 622-631.
Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103.
Destek, M. A., Balli, E., & Manga, M. (2016). The Relationship between CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption, Urbanization and Trade Openness for Selected CEECs. Research in World Economy, 7(1), 52.
Rafiq, S., Salim, R., & Nielsen, I. (2016). Urbanization, openness, emissions, and energy intensity: A study of increasingly urbanized emerging economies. Energy Economics, 56, 20-28.
Hossain, M. S. (2011). Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries. Energy Policy, 39(11), 6991-6999.
He, Z., Xu, S., Shen, W., Long, R., & Chen, H. (2017). Impact of urbanization on energy related CO 2 emission at different development levels: Regional difference in China based on panel estimation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 140, 1719-1730.
Poumanyvong, P., & Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Economics, 70(2), 434-444.
Gojarati, D. (2004). Basics of econometrics. Translation Dr. Hamid Abrishami. Vol(2). Tehran: Tehran University. (In Persian).
Noferesti, M. (2000). Unit root and cointegration in econometrics. Rasa Cultural Services Institute, First Printing, Tehran. (In Persian).
Siddiki, J. U. (2000). Demand for money in Bangladesh: a cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 32(15), 1977-1984.
Pesaran, H.M. and B. pesaran (1997), Working With Microfit 4.0: An Introduction to Econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Pesaran, H.M. and Y. shin (1998), An Autoregressive Distributed lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, In (Ed) S. Storm. The Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Chapter II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Shrestha, M. B., & Chowdhury, K. (2005). ARDL modelling approach to testing the financial liberalisation hypothesis. Research Online: University of Wollongong.
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Reference
Fetros, M. (2007). Issues of the Environmental Economics (Proceedings). Bu-Ali Sina University Press. Hamedan. (In Persian).
Statistical Center of Iran. (2015). Journal Information Database. http://amar.sci.org.ir. (In Persian).
Fetros, M. & Mahboodi, R. (2011). The causal relationship between energy consumption, urban population and environmental pollution in Iran. Energy Economics Studies, 7(27), 1-17. (In Persian).
Jones, D. W. (1991). How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries. Energy Policy, 19(7), 621-630.
Alam, S. Fatima, A. & Butt, M. S. (2007). Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation. Journal of Asian Economics, 18(5), 825-837.
Shakoori, M. (2010). The effects of changes in the age structure of Iran's population on the country's pension fund. Insurance Studies and Research Unit of the Audit Institute of the State Pension Fund. (In Persian).
United Nations. (2015). Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Ageing 2015 (ST/ESA/SER.A/390).
Yavari, K. & Ahmadzadeh, K. (2010). Investigating the relationship between energy consumption and population structure (case study: Southwest Asia). Energy Economics Studies, 7(25): 33–62. (In Persian).
Dalton, M., B. O'Neill, A. Prskawetz, L. Jiang & J. Pitkin. (2008). Population Aging and Future Carbon Emissions in the United States, Energy Economics , 30: 642–675.
Liddle, B. (2011). Consumption-driven environmental impact and age-structure change in OECD countries: A cointegration-STIRPAT analysis. Demographic Research, 24, 749–770.
Liddle, B. (2004). Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: Using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport. Population and Environment, 26(1), 23–39.
York, R. (2007). Demographic Trends and Energy Consumption in European Union Nations (1960–2025), Social Science Research, Vol. 36, PP. 855–872 .
Okada, A. (2012). Is an increased elderly population related to decreased CO2 emissions from road transportation? Energy Policy, 45, 286–292.
Liddle, B., & Lung, S. (2010). Age structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption–related environmental impacts. Population and Environment, 31, 317–343.
Liddle, B. (2014). Impact of Population, Age Structure and Urbanization on Carbon Emissions/Energy Consumption: Evidence From Macro- Level, Cross-Country Analyses; Population and Environment, 35: 286- 304.
Hassan, K., & Salim, R. (2015). Population ageing, income growth and CO2 emission: Empirical evidence from high income OECD countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(1), 54-67.
Falahati, F., & Hekmatifarid, S. (2014). Investigating the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in the provinces of Iran (Panel data approach). Environmental and Energy of Economics Studies, 2(6), 129-150.
Martínez- Zarzoso, I., & Maruotti, A. (2011). The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecological Economics, 70(7), 1344-1353.
Shahbaz, M., Sbia, R., Hamdi, H., & Ozturk, I. (2014). Economic growth, electricity consumption, urbanization and environmental degradation relationship in United Arab Emirates. Ecological Indicators, 45, 622-631.
Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103.
Destek, M. A., Balli, E., & Manga, M. (2016). The Relationship between CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption, Urbanization and Trade Openness for Selected CEECs. Research in World Economy, 7(1), 52.
Rafiq, S., Salim, R., & Nielsen, I. (2016). Urbanization, openness, emissions, and energy intensity: A study of increasingly urbanized emerging economies. Energy Economics, 56, 20-28.
Hossain, M. S. (2011). Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries. Energy Policy, 39(11), 6991-6999.
He, Z., Xu, S., Shen, W., Long, R., & Chen, H. (2017). Impact of urbanization on energy related CO 2 emission at different development levels: Regional difference in China based on panel estimation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 140, 1719-1730.
Poumanyvong, P., & Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Economics, 70(2), 434-444.
Gojarati, D. (2004). Basics of econometrics. Translation Dr. Hamid Abrishami. Vol(2). Tehran: Tehran University. (In Persian).
Noferesti, M. (2000). Unit root and cointegration in econometrics. Rasa Cultural Services Institute, First Printing, Tehran. (In Persian).
Siddiki, J. U. (2000). Demand for money in Bangladesh: a cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 32(15), 1977-1984.
Pesaran, H.M. and B. pesaran (1997), Working With Microfit 4.0: An Introduction to Econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Pesaran, H.M. and Y. shin (1998), An Autoregressive Distributed lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, In (Ed) S. Storm. The Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Chapter II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Shrestha, M. B., & Chowdhury, K. (2005). ARDL modelling approach to testing the financial liberalisation hypothesis. Research Online: University of Wollongong.
