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  • ارزیابی اثرات سناریوهای SSP از بروندادهای اقلیمی مدل‌های جفت شده میان مقایسه‌ای فاز ششم (CMIP6) بر منابع آب و کشاورزی منطقه هشتگرد با رویکرد اعمال راهبرد تطبیقی

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آدرس مقاله


کد مقاله : JEST-2201-5606 (R2) بازدید : 150 صفحه: 93 - 107

10.30495/jest.2023.65251.5606

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

ارزیابی اثرات سناریوهای SSP از بروندادهای اقلیمی مدل‌های جفت شده میان مقایسه‌ای فاز ششم (CMIP6) بر منابع آب و کشاورزی منطقه هشتگرد با رویکرد اعمال راهبرد تطبیقی

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت محیط زیست

مصطفی رضایی زمان 1 , علیرضا مساح بوانی 2 , سامان جوادی 3

1 - دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب گروه مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان تهران، پاکدشت.
2 - دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران، پاکدشت، ایران. * (مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران، پاکدشت، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/10/14 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/06/22 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/12/01

کلید واژه: تغییر اقلیم, مدل SWAT, سناریوهای SSP, تنش آبی, راهبرد تطبیقی, هشتگرد,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: با توجه به وضعیت نه‌چندان مناسب شرایط منابع آب کشور و نیز پدیده تغییراقلیم و تأثیرات آن، شبیه سازی وضعیت تغییر اقلیم در آینده و ارزیابی اثرات آن به‌منظور کاهش آسیب‌پذیری و مقابله با آن می‌تواند اهمیت بسزایی در تصمیم‌گیری‌های آینده داشته باشد. در این راستا به‌منظور کاهش اثرات منفی تغییر اقلیم و سود جستن از اثرات احتمالی مثبت آن در حوضه‌های آبریز، راهبرهای مختلف سازگاری ارائه می‌شود. در این تحقیق تطبیق با تغییر اقلیم در بخش کشاورزی تحت جدیدترین سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم CMIP6-SSP مورد بررسی و ارزیابی قرارگرفته و با توجه به ویژگی‌های منطقه هشتگرد و مخاطراتی که کشاورزی منطقه را تهدید می‌کند، تلاش ‌دارد تا نگاه جامعی به این سیستم داشته باشد. بدین منظور راهبردهای سازگاری برای کاهش اثرات منفی تغییر اقلیم در بخش کشاورزی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. روش بررسی: بدین منظور از مدل SWAT برای شبیه‌سازی و ارزیابی راهبرد تطبیقی در منطقه هشتگرد در سال 1398 استفاده شد. برای مدل‌سازی شرایط تغییر اقلیم در منطقه از مدل‌ اقلیمی NorESM2-MM مربوط به گزارش ششم IPCC و سناریوهای مختلف SSP (SSP1.26, SSP2.54, SSP3.70. SSP 5.85) بهره گرفته شد و با ریزمقیاس، داده‌های دمای حداقل، حداکثر و بارش برای سال‌های 2020 تا 2049 تولید گردید. پس از محاسبه تغییرات دما و بارندگی نسبت به شرایط حاضر، مقادیر این تغییرات به‌منظور بررسی تأثیر آن بر منابع آب منطقه هشتگرد، به مدل SWAT اعمال گردید و مقادیر تنش آبی، عملکرد محصولات در شرایط اعمال تغییر اقلیم برآورد گردید. یافته‌ها: نتایج حاکی از افزایش متوسط تنش آبی و همچنین کاهش عملکرد محصولات به‌غیراز محصول ذرت در همه سناریوهایSSP بود. پس از ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم در منطقه، به‌منظور تطبیق با این تغییرات در بخش کشاورزی، راهبرد تغییر الگوی کشت از محصولات گوجه‌فرنگی و یونجه با نیاز آبی بالا با محصولات گندم و جو که قابلیت سازگاری بالاتر و نیاز آبی کمتر دارند و همچنین در تغییر الگوی کشت دوم، به ذرت خوشه‌ای به‌عنوان محصول مقاوم‌به‌گرمایش زمین، پیشنهاد و با معیارهای چون تغییرات تنش آبی و عملکرد محصولات نسبت به شرایط ادامه وضع موجود (BAU[1]) ارزیابی شد. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج نشان داد، تغییر الگوی کشت به گندم و جو موجب کاهش تنش آبی محصولات منطقه شده‌است. به‌طورکلی در راهبرد تغییر الگوی کشت، افزایش عملکرد هر سه محصول گندم ، جو و ذرت نسبت به راهبرد BAU را در پی داشت. در راهبرد تغییر الگوی کشت به ذرت خوشه‌ای کاهش قابل‌توجه تنش آبی و به‌تبع آن عملکرد قابل‌قبول این محصول برآورد شد. که این افزایش عملکرد به دلیل کاهش تنش‌های آبی ناشی از افزایش آب قابل‌دسترس می‌باشد. 1- Bussines As Usual

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: Considering the not very suitable state of the country's water resources as well as the phenomenon of climate change and its effects, simulating the state of climate change in the future and evaluating its effects in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it can be very important in future decisions. In this regard, in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change and benefit from its possible positive effects in watersheds, various adaptation strategies are presented. In this research, adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector under the CMIP6-SSP climate change scenarios has been investigated and evaluated. Considering the characteristics of the Hashtgerd region and the risks that threaten agriculture in the region, this research tries to have a comprehensive view of this system. For this purpose, adaptation strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change in the agricultural sector were evaluated. Material and Methodology:  In this research, the SWAT model was used to simulate and evaluate the adaptive strategy in Hashtgerd region in 2018. To model climate change conditions in the region, the NorESM2-MM climate model related to the 6th IPCC report and different SSP scenarios (SSP1.26, SSP2.54, SSP3.70, SSP 5.85) were used and minimum and maximum temperature data and the precipitation were downscaled for the years 2020 to 2049. After calculating the changes in temperature and rainfall compared to the current conditions, the values ​​of these changes were applied to the SWAT model in order to investigate its effect on the water resources of Hashtgerd region. Finally, the values ​​of water stress and crop performance were estimated under the conditions of climate change. Findings: The results indicated an average increase in water stress and also a decrease in yield of crops other than corn in all SSP scenarios. After evaluating the effects of climate change in the region, in order to adapt to these changes in the agricultural sector, two adaptation strategies were used 1) The strategy of changing the cultivation pattern from tomato and alfalfa crops to wheat and barley and 2) Changing the cultivation pattern from tomato and alfalfa to corn. These strategies were evaluated with criteria such as changes in water stress and yield of crops compared to BAU conditions. Discussion and Conclusion: The results showed that changing the cultivation pattern to wheat and barley has reduced the water stress of regional crops. In general, in the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern, the yield of all three crops, wheat, barley and corn, was increased compared to the BAU strategy. In the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern to corn, a significant reduction in water stress was estimated and, accordingly, the yield of this product was acceptable. This increase in performance is due to the reduction of water stress caused by the increase in available water.

منابع و مأخذ:


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_||_

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    2.
  2. Aryal JP, Sapkota TB, Khurana R, Khatri-Chhetri A, Rahut DB, Jat ML. Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: Adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2020 Aug;22(6):5045-75.
    3.
  3. Shukla PR, Skea J, Calvo Buendia E, Masson-Delmotte V, Pörtner HO, Roberts DC, Zhai P, Slade R, Connors S, Van Diemen R, Ferrat M. IPCC, 2019: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.
    4.
  4. Richardson KJ, Lewis KH, Krishnamurthy PK, Kent C, Wiltshire AJ, Hanlon HM. Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity. Climatic change. 2018 Mar;147(1):327-41.
    5.
  5. Boyer JS. Plant productivity and environment. Science. 1982 Oct 29;218(4571):443-8.
    6.
  6. 6 . Rogelj J, Den Elzen M, Höhne N, Fransen T, Fekete H, Winkler H, Schaeffer R, Sha F, Riahi K, Meinshausen M. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 C. Nature. 2016 Jun;534(7609):631-
    7.
  7. Anderson R, Bayer PE, Edwards D. Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation. Current opinion in plant biology. 2020 Aug 1;56:197-202.
    8.
  8. Statistical yearbook alborz agriculture organization. plan and budget organization.2015 [Persian].
    9.
  9. Water resource balance report hashtger region 4105. iran water resource company.2013. (In Persian)
    10.
  10. Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 1998 Feb;34(1):73-89.
    11.
  11. Naseri E, Masah B A, Saadi T. Evaluating the efficiency of GCM models in estimating the average temperature of Alborz province during the statistical period of 1985-2015. 6th Regional Conference on Climate Change, Tehran. 2018. (In Persian)
    12.
  12. Frame B, Lawrence J, Ausseil AG, Reisinger A, Daigneault A. Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios. Climate Risk Management. 2018 Jan 1;21:39-51.
    13.
  13. Riahi K, Van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, Edmonds J, O’neill BC, Fujimori S, Bauer N, Calvin K, Dellink R, Fricko O, Lutz W. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global environmental change. 2017 Jan 1;42:153-68.
    14.
  14. Singh PK, Chudasama H. Pathways for climate resilient development: Human well-being within a safe and just space in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2021 May 1;68:102277.
    15.
  15. Klink K, Wiersma JJ, Crawford CJ, Stuthman DD. Impacts of temperature and precipitation variability in the Northern Plains of the United States and Canada on the productivity of spring barley and oat. International Journal of Climatology. 2014 Jun;34(8):2805-18.
    16.
  16. Luo Q. Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review. Climatic change. 2011 Dec;109(3):583-98.
    17.
  17. Talwar HS, Elangovan M, Patil JV. Sorghum-A potential crop to adapt to future climate change scenario.
    18.
  18. Corwin DL. Climate change impacts on soil salinity in agricultural areas. European Journal of Soil Science. 2021 Mar;72(2):842-62.
    19.
  19. Kukal MS, Irmak S. Climate-driven crop yield and yield variability and climate change impacts on the US Great Plains agricultural production. Scientific reports. 2018 Feb 22;8(1):1-8.
    20.
  20. Aryal JP, Sapkota TB, Khurana R, Khatri-Chhetri A, Rahut DB, Jat ML. Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: Adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2020 Aug;22(6):5045-75.
    21.
  21. Boonwichai S, Shrestha S, Babel MS, Weesakul S, Datta A. Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed rice production in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. Science of the Total Environment. 2019 Feb 20;652:189-201.
    22.
  22. Ministry of Energy.Development of national strategies and programs for adapting to climate change in the water sector, departmental studies Second: Studies of national approaches and high-level laws effective on adaptation to climate change. Deputy Water and Water Resources Department Office Water and wastewater macro planning. , 2019.
    23.
  23. Kogo BK, Kumar L, Koech Climate change and variability in Kenya: a review of impacts on agriculture and food security. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2021 Jan;23(1):23-43.
    24.
  24. Babaeian F, Delavar M, Morid S, Srinivasan R. Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management. Agricultural Water Manage.
    25.

 

 

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