ارزیابی اثر تاریخی تغییر اقلیم بر خطر بیابانزایی منطقه اسفراین-سبزوار (دوره مورد مطالعه: 2016-1979 میلادی)

محورهای موضوعی : منابع طبیعی

اسماعیل سیلاخوری ¹ , مجید اونق ² , عبدالرسول سلمان ماهینی ³ , ایمان بابائیان ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی بیابانزدایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.
2 - استاد، گروه مدیریت مناطق بیابانی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - استاد، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
4 - استادیار، گروه پژوهشی تغییر اقلیم، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور.

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/09/19 تاریخ پذیرش : 1397/05/01 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/09/01

کلید واژه: داده‌های بازتحلیل, مدل ESAs, ERA-Interim, NetCDF,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: در میان 37 چالش مهم جهانی؛ تغییر اقلیم، بیابانزایی و کمبود آب شیرین، سه چالش اصلی فَراروی بشر در قرن 21 محسوب می شوند. در این پژوهش از مدل ESAs در راستای ارزیابی اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر خطر بیابانزایی منطقه اسفراین- سبزوار در سه دوره 1992-1981، 2004- 1993 و 2016-2005 استفاده شد.روش بررسی: به دلیل آمار و پراکنش نامناسب ایستگاه های هواشناسی منطقه، از داده های بازتحلیل ERA-Interim و دوازده ایستگاه هواشناسی منطقه استفاده شد. داده های اقلیمی پروژه ERA-Interim برای منطقه اسفراینسبزوار به صورت 53 سلول به ابعاد 125/0×125/0 درجه در دسترس است. در گام اول با استفاده از رابط وب، کدهایPython و همچنینECMWF WebAPI، داده های اقلیمی روزانه برای دوره آماری 1979 تا 2016 دریافت و برای هر یک از سلول ها استخراج شد. داده های NetCDF دریافت شده با استفاده از نرم افزار ArcGIS برای 53 سلول به فرمت پایگاه داده خروجی گرفته شد و مورد طبقه بندی قرار گرفت. سپس تطابق داده های ERA-Interim با داده های دوازده ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره 2016-2007 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. اُریبی ماهانه به دست آمده به طور ماهانه به سال های فاقد آمار دیدبانی و سلول های فاقد ایستگاه هواشناسی اعمال شد و در نهایت با تصحیح اُریبی، داده های تلفیقی بارش برای 53 سلول استخراج شد. استمرار خشکسالی نیز با استفاده از نرم افزار R و شاخص SPI برای دوره مورد مطالعه محاسبه شد. پس از تهیه نقشه های پایه بارش، خشکی و خشکسالی برای سه دوره مورد مطالعه، با استفاده از ابزار مدل سازی GIS نقشه خطر بیابانزایی بر اساس مدل ESAs به دست آمد.یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد که استفاده از داده های تلفیقی (بازتحلیل و ایستگاهی) توانسته ضریب NSE را به 1 افزایش، bias را از 39/0 به 24/0 و RMSE را از 69/6 به 32/0 کاهش دهد. در دوره 36 ساله مورد مطالعه بارش به طور میانگین برای کل منطقه بیش از 10 میلی متر کاهش و دما نزدیک به دو درجه افزایش یافته است که اثرات این تغییر بر خطر بیابانزایی ارزیابی شد. به طوری که در دوره دوم کلاس F2 جای خود را به کلاس C1 و در دوره سوم کلاس C1 جای خود را به کلاس C3 داده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and objectives: Among the 37 important challenges of the world, climate change, desertification, and lack of fresh water are three main challenges against the human in the 21th century. In this research, the ESAs model was used to assess the impact of climate change on the desertification hazard in the Esfarayen-Sabzevar region in three periods of 1981-1992, 1993-2004, and 2005-2016.Material and Methodology: Due to the inappropriate data and distribution of the meteorological stations of the region, reanalyzed data of the ERA-Interim and 12 meteorological stations of the region were used. The climate data related to the Esfarayen -Sabzevar region are available as 53 cells with the dimensions of 0.125 × 0.125 degrees. At the first step, daily climate data for the period of 1979-2016 were received using the web interfaces, Python script, and also ECMWF WebAPI and then the data were extracted for each of the cells. ArcGIS software was used to export the received NetCDF data in the data base format (dbf) for 53 cells. Drought consistency for the study period was computed using R software through SPI index. After preparing base maps of precipitation, aridity, and drought for three study periods, desertification hazard was provided using the modeling tool of the ArcGIS software based on the ESAs model.Findings: Results indicated that use of the integrated (reanalyzed and observed) data led to increasing the NSE coefficient to the value of 1 as well as the values of bias and RMSE were decreased respectively from 0.39 to 0.24 and 6.69 to 0.32. In the 36- year study period, precipitation has decreased more than 10 mm in the entire region and the temperature has increased nearly 2 degrees that the impacts of these changes on the desertification hazard were assessed. So that, in the second period, C1 was replaced with F2 class and in the third period, C3 was replaced with C1.Discussion and conclusion: As a result, it can be said that climate change in three periods has led to increasing the desertification hazard in the Esfarayen-Sabzevar Region. 

منابع و مأخذ:

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18. Noghrekar, Abdolhamid, and Mohammadmanan Raeesi. 2011. “Semiological Analysis of Iranian Housing System Based on the Relationship between Text/Housing Layers.” Journal of Fine Arts, Architecture and Urban Planning. 46(2): 5‒14. (In Persian)


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1. Mohammad moradi, A and Bahmani oskouie, F (2010). The Traditional Bazaar of Crystallization of Contemporary Urban Idea, Designer Quarterly, Issue 2. (In Persian)


2. Biglari, E (1976). "Iranian Bazaars", in Art and People, 162, pp. 61-62. (In Persian)


3. Soltanzadeh, H (2004). Iranian Bazaars, Office of Cultural Research, Tehran. (In Persian)


4. Rajabi, A (2006). Bazaar morphology, Agah Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)


5. Abbas Zadegan, M. Azari, A (2009). Investigating the Spatial Role of the Bazaar in the Structure of Iranian Cities (Using Space Layout Method) Case Examples: Tehran, Tabriz, Kerman, Isfahan, Abadi, 64, 26-31. (In Persian)


6. Amirkhani, A. Baghai, P. Bemanian, MR (2009). A Study of the Transformation of Properties Ruling on Iranian Timachines in the Qajar Period, Fine Arts, 37, 39-48. (In Persian)


7. Sajadzadeh, H. Pirbabai, M.T (2012). The process of meaning occurrence in urban space, Armanshahr Architecture and Urban Development, 9, 177-186. (In Persian)


8. Soltanifard, H. et al. (2013). Analysis of metamorphosis of spatial physical structure of Iranian-Islamic city. Case study: Sabzevar city, Iranian-Islamic city studies, 14, 13-22. (In Persian)


9. Sajadzadeh, H. Haghi, MR (2014). A Comparative Comparison of Environmental Quality of Traditional Pavements and Traditional Bazaars, Case Study: Khordad Pavement and Old Tehran


10. Abbasi, Z. Habib, F. Mokhtab Amrii, M (2015). Developing Principles and Criteria for Spatial Perception in Iranian Traditional Bazaar Architecture, Urban Management, 39, 291-316. (In Persian)


11. Farsi Mohammadipour, A. Talebi, M (2015). Study of Sanandaj Traditional Bazaar Phenomenon from the Perspective of Phenomenology, Interdisciplinary Studies in Humanities, 7(3),27-61.


12. Dadvar, S. Danesh, F. Abbasi, Z (2016). Investigating the physical structure of the Bazaar as a vital element of the old urban context Case study: Kashan Bazaar, Urban Management, 44, 231-252.


13. Sadeghi, S. Saremi, H (2016). The Shape of Architecture of Iranian Bazaars from Qajar Period (From Yesterday's Traditional Bazaar to Today's Malls; Case Study of Tehran Mar Bazaars), Geography, Civil and Urban Management Studies, 2(4), 129-143. (In Persian)


14. Talai, A. Habib, F. Mokhtab Amrii, M (2017). Explaining the Semiotics of the Iranian Bazaar (Explaining and Developing a Method for Reading Architecture of the Bazaar), Urban Management, 9(3), 129-158. (In Persian)


15. Hakimian, P. Lak, A (1977). An Analysis of the Physical Integrity of the Historical Bazaar of the Iranian City, a Comparative Study of the Historical Bazaars of Kerman & Shiraz, Letter of Architecture and Urban Development, 23, 111-130. (In Persian)


16. Mehdi Nejad, J. Najari Nabari, R (2018). Evaluation of changes in the physical structure of traditional Bazaars based on Bazaar role in urban space Case study: Tabriz Bazaar, Andisheh Memari, 6,144-159. (In Persian)


17. Sojoodi, Farzan. 2008. Applied semiotics. Tehran: Nashr-e Elm. (In Persian)


18. Noghrekar, Abdolhamid, and Mohammadmanan Raeesi. 2011. “Semiological Analysis of Iranian Housing System Based on the Relationship between Text/Housing Layers.” Journal of Fine Arts, Architecture and Urban Planning. 46(2): 5‒14. (In Persian)


19. Namvar motlagh, Bahman (2016). Intertextuality from structuralism to postmodernism. Tehran: Sokhan Publishing. (In Persian)


20. Eco, Umberto (2003). Function and sign: The semiotics of architecture. In Rethinking Architecture – A reader in cultural theory, ed. N. Leach, 181‒202. London, New York: Routledge. (persian)


21. Chandler, D (2008). Fundamentals of Cinema Semiotics. Translated by Mehdi Parsa. Tehran: Surah Mehr Publications. (In Persian)


22. Pirnia, k (1993). Introduction to Islamic Architecture of Iran, Iran University of Science and Technology Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)


23. Habibi, Hassan (2010). The story of Tehran's big Bazaar, its Bazaar s and surrounding Bazaars in the last two hundred years, Project Manager: Shahram Yousefi far, Publisher of Iranology Foundation, Tehran. (In Persian)


24. Karimi, S (2008). Tehran Bazaar, Thought Publishing, Tehran. (In Persian)


25. Admate, Fereydoon (1969). Amir Kabir and Iran, Kharazmi, Tehran. (In Persian)


26. Haji Ghasemi, K (2004). Treasure Letter: The Culture of Islamic Architecture in Iran: Bazaar Buildings (Volume 2), Shahid Beheshti University Press. Tehran. (In Persian)