تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری بر عرضه، تقاضای داخلی و میزان صادرات کشمش ایران
ابوالقاسم باقری
1
(
گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
)
حمید محمدی
2
(
گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
)
محمد مهدی پور
3
(
گروه حقوق، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
)
کلید واژه: آزادسازی تجاری, عرضه, تقاضا, صادرات, کشمش,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه و هدف: آزادسازی تجاری یکی از مؤلفه‌های زیربنایی جهانی‌شدن است که به معنای برداشت محدودیت‌های تجاری در زمینه صادرات و واردات کالاها است. ازآنجا که کشمش یکی از محصولات راهبردی بخش کشاورزی ایران محسوب می‌شود و از ظرفیت بالایی برای حضور در بازارهای صادراتی برخوردار است، این پژوهش، آثار آزادسازی تجاری در معادلات عرضه و تقاضای داخلی و همچنین عرضه صادرات کشمش را بررسي نموده است.
مواد و روشها: جهت بررسی روابط کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین متغیرهای تـوابع عرضه و تقاضای داخلی و عرضه صادرات کشمش، از الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده[1] طی دوره 1370 تا 1402 استفاده شد.
یافتهها: نتایج مطالعه نشان می‌دهد آزادسازی تجاری بر اساس شاخص سطح تجارت بين‌المللي، تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر ميزان عرضه داخلي كشمش در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت به ترتیب با ضریب 31/1 (در سطح 1درصد) و 37/3(در سطح 5درصد) داشته است. در مقابل، این سیاست موجب کاهش معنادار تقاضای داخلی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت به ترتیب با ضرایب 6/1- (در سطح 1درصد)و 53/2- (در سطح 5درصد) می‌شود. در الگوی عرضه صادرات کشمش نیز، نتایج نشان داد شاخص سطح تجارت بین‌المللی با ضریب 81/3 تأثير مثبت و معنی‌داری در سطح 1درصد بر عرضه صادرات كشمش داشته است. به‌طورکلی، آزادسازی و حذف موانع تجاری و در پی آن دسترسی بیشتر با بازارهای جهانی، افزایش تولید و صادرات کشمش را به همراه داشته است. نتایج همچنین نشان داد ضرایب مدل‌های برآوردی، از ثبات ساختاری لازم برخوردار بوده‌اند.
بحث و نتیجهگیری: نتایج کلی نشان داد، آزادسازی تجاری موجب افزایشِ عرضه داخلی و صادرات کشمش شده است. بااین‌حال، این فرآیند به‌طور هم‌زمان باعث کاهش تقاضای داخلی گردیده است. درواقع، افزایش صادرات کشمش در نتیجه آزادسازی، منجر به کاهش دسترسی و تقاضا برای این محصول در بازارِ داخلی شده است. بنابراین، سیاست‌گذاران باید ضمن تسهیل تجارت خارجی، با برنامه‌ریزی برای افزایش تولید، ارتقای بهره‌وری، آموزش بهره‌برداران، و بهبود زیرساخت‌های فرآوری، حمل‌ونقل و صادرات، از بروز اثرات منفی احتمالی بر بازار داخلی جلوگیری کنند. این یافتهها بر ضرورت همراهی آزادسازی تجاری با حمایت‌های هدفمند تولیدی تأکید دارند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
Introduction and Objective: Trade liberalization is a fundamental component of globalization, meaning the removal of trade restrictions on the export of goods. Since raisins are an important agricultural product in Iran with high export potential, this study examines the effects of trade liberalization on the supply, domestic demand, and export equations for raisins.
Materials and Methods: To examine the short-term and long-term relationships between the variables of domestic supply and demand functions and raisin export supply, an autoregressive distributed lag model was used over the period from 1991 to 2023.
Findings: The study results show that trade liberalization, based on the international trade level index, has a positive and significant impact on the domestic supply of raisins in the short and long term, with coefficients of 1.31 (at the 1% level) and 3.37 (at the 5% level), respectively. Increasing the level of trade liberalization through export facilitation provides an incentive for producers to increase production and supply more products. In contrast, this policy leads to a significant decrease in domestic demand in the short and long term, with coefficients of -1.6 (at the 1% level) and -2.53 (at the 5% level), respectively. In the export supply model for raisins, the results also showed that the international trade level index had a positive and significant effect of 3.81 on the export supply of raisins at the 1% level. Generally speaking, trade liberalization and the removal of trade barriers, followed by increased access to global markets, have led to higher production and export of raisins. The results also showed that the coefficients of the estimated models had the necessary structural stability.
Discussion and Conclusion: Overall results showed that trade liberalization led to an increase in domestic and export supply of raisins. However, at the same time, this index has led to a decrease in domestic demand. In fact, the increase in raisin exports as a result of liberalization leads to a decrease in access and demand for this product in the domestic market. Therefore, policymakers should, alongside facilitating foreign trade, prevent potential negative impacts on the domestic market by planning to increase production, improve productivity, train beneficiaries, and enhance processing, transportation, and export infrastructure. These findings emphasize that trade liberalization, if accompanied by targeted production support, can be beneficial.
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