ایجاد نهاد ساختاری بازار آب محلی در شبکه آبیاری استان تهران با رویکرد مدل تولیدات کشاورزی منطقه‌ای

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

ابوذر پرهیزکاری ¹ , غلامرضا یاوری ² , ابوالفضل محمودی ³ , غلامرضا بخشی خانیکی ⁴

1 - دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
3 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
4 - استاد گروه علوم کشاورزی (بیوتکنولوژی)، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/04/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/05/25 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/11/01

کلید واژه: بازار آب, کم آبی, مدل هیدرواقتصادی, تشکل‌های آب بران, الگوی SWAP,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: بازار آب ابزاری مؤثر و کارآمد جهت تخصیص آب کشاورزی بین فعالیت­های مختلف زراعی است. نبود نهاد ساختاری تعدیل­کننده آب آبیاری و عدم مشارکت کشاورزان جهت استقرار آن از جمله مهم­ترین مسائل پیش­روی بخش کشاورزی در استان تهران می­باشد. بررسی آثار بالقوه این رویداد که بیش از پیش مورد توجه جوامع بین­المللی قرار گرفته­ است، گامی مهم در زمینه توسعه فعالیت­های کشاورزی استان تهران به شمار می­رود. مواد و روش ها: در مطالعه حاضر با بهره­مندی از رویکرد مدل تولیدات کشاورزی ایالتی یا منطقه­ای (SWAP) رفتار اقتصادی کشاورزان تهرانی پس از ایجاد نهاد ساختاری بازار آب محلی مدلسازی شد. برای تحقق این هدف از داده­های آماری مربوط به سال­های زراعی 1397-1392 استفاده شد. واسنجی سیستم مدل­سازی هیدرولوژی- اقتصادی ارائه شده نیز در محیط نرم­افزاری GAMS صورت گرفت. یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد که با استقرار بازار آب محلی در استان تهران، افزون بر تعادل‌بخشی پایدار منابع آب، امکان توسعه سطح زیرکشت محصولات آب‌بر و سودده در الگوی زراعی مناطق کم­آب­تر (دشت شهرری و ورامین) فراهم می­شود و با متعادل شدن بازده ناخالص کشاورزان، پیامدهای منفی پدیده خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی تا حدود 35/3 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش می­یابد. بحث و نتیجه گیری: ایجاد بازار آب محلی در سطح استان تهران می­تواند علی­رغم دارا بودن قابلیت انتقال منابع آبی مازاد در سطح مناطق مطالعاتی جنوب غرب استان تهران، سبب افزایش ضریب اطمینان دسترسی کشاورزان به آب آبیاری و کاهش ریسک تولید در الگوهای زراعی شود و همچنین، به نحو مطلوبی مسأله تخصیص و مدیریت بهینه منابع آب را بین فعالیت مختلف زراعی منعکس نماید. طبقه­بندی JEL:Q25, L22, C61.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Examining the potential effects of this event, which has received more and more attention from the international community, is an important step in the development of agricultural activities in Tehran province.

Methods: In the present study, using the approach of state or regional agricultural production model (SWAP), the economic behavior of Tehran farmers after participating in the structural institution of the local water market was modeled.

Findings: The results showed that with the establishment of local water market in Tehran province, in addition to sustainable balancing of water resources, it is possible to develop the acreage of irrigated products, albeit profitable in the cropping pattern of less water regions (Shahrerey and Varamin plains) and by balancing farmers’ gross profit, the negative consequences of the hydrological drought phenomenon are reduced to about 35.3% compared to the base period.

Conclusion: Establishing a local water market as a structural institution with private property rights in Tehran province can transfer surplus water resources in the study areas of southwestern Tehran province (regions C, D and E).

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