اثر سیاست‌های پولی بر تورم مواد غذایی در ایران: رویکرد رگرسیون کوانتایل
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیعباس علوی راد 1 , حسین حاتمی 2 , جلیل توتونچی 3
1 - ریاست دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد ابرکوه
2 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد ابرکوه
3 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد یزد
کلید واژه: ایران, سیاست پولی, رگرسیون کوانتایل, تورم مواد غذایی,
چکیده مقاله :
در این مطالعه یک مدل مبتنی بر روش کوانتایل با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی دوره زمانی 1380 تا 1399 برآورد شد. متغیر نشان‌دهنده سیاست پولی در این مطالعه نرخ سود تسهیلات بانکی و نرخ ذخیره قانونی بوده و متغیرهای وابسته نیز نرخ رشد شاخص قیمت خوراکی‌ها، آشامیدنی و دخانیات است. نتایج مبتنی بر برآورد مدل‌های کوانتایل نشان داد که در همه کوانتایل‌ها نرخ بهره اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر تورم مواد غذایی داشته است. بنابراین می‌توان نتیجه گرفت با افزایش نرخ بهره، هزینه سرمایه و همچنین ذخیره‌سازی با افزایش مواجه خواهد شد؛ همین امر بر قیمت مواد غذایی اثر مثبت گذاشته و در نتیجه آن تورم مواد غذایی را تحت تاثیر قرار خواهد داد و زمانی‌که در تورم بالا، نرخ بهره افزایش پیدا کند، به دلیل افزایش هزینه سرمایه و علاوه بر آن تقاضای سود بیشتر سوداگران (به دلیل افزایش هزینه فرصت) اثر آن بر تورم بیشتر خواهد بود.
In this study, a model based on quantile regresion was estimated using seasonal data from 2001 to 2021. The variables representing monetary policy are the interest rate of banking facilities and the legal reserve rate, and the dependent variables are the growth rate of food, price index. The results based on the estimation of quantile models showed that in all quantiles interest rates had a positive and significant effect on food inflation. Therefore, it can be concluded that with the increase of interest rates, the cost of capital as well as storage will increase; This will have a positive effect on food prices and will affect food inflation, and when interest rates rise in high inflation, due to increased capital costs (due to Increased opportunity cost) will have a greater effect on inflation.
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