خسارت خاموشی برق در بخش دامداری صنعتی: یک مطالعه موردی برای استان اصفهان

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سعید راسخی ¹ , مریم یگدانه ² , یوسف محنت فر ³

1 - استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.
2 - کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه مازندران ، بابلسر، ایران.
3 - دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1401/01/20 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/04/26 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/08/01

کلید واژه: اصفهان, تمایل به پرداخت, قابلیت اطمینان, هزینه خاموشی برق, دامداری صنعتی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: بکارگیری تکنولوژی‌های جدید در بخش دامپروری برای تأمین نیازهای پروتئینی موجب اهمیت بیشتر حامل‌های انرژی به ویژه برق در صنعت دامپروری شده است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی هزینه‌های ناشی از قطع برق برای دامداری صنعتی می‌باشد. مواد و روش­ها: برای این منظور، 43 مشترک دامداری صنعتی استان اصفهان در سال 1399 انتخاب و با پرسش‌نامه محقق ساخته، داده‌های مورد نیاز برای روش تمایل به پرداخت و روش ارزش مستقیم جمع‌آوری شده است. یافته­ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که WTP برای هر کیلووات ساعت برق عرضه نشده، بدون اطلاع قبلی در کمترین حالت 13,264 ریال و در بیشترین حالت 78,988 ریال می‌باشد؛ داده‌های بدست آمده برای روش ارزش مستقیم نشان می‌دهد که با افزایش مدت زمان وقفه میزان خسارت بابت هر کیلووات ساعت برق عرضه نشده کاهش می‌یابد. بحث و نتیجه­گیری: از آن‌جایی‌که، خسارات ناشی از قطع برق در این بخش حتی پس از بازگشت برق نیز ادامه دارد؛ با اعلام زمان و مدت خاموشی، می‌توان میزان خسارات احتمالی در این بخش را به حداقل رساند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Employing new technologiesin animal husbandry to meet the needs for protein has increased the importance of energy carriers especially electricityas well asthe negative and often irrecoverable effects of the qualityreduction of electricity and power outages impacts on the animal industry.The purpose of this study is to evaluate the costs of power outages for industrial animal husbandry; for this purpose, 43 subscribers of industrial animal husbandry in Isfahan province in 1399 were selected and with a researcher-made questionnaire, the required data for the willingness to pay method and direct value method were collected.The results of this study show that the Willingness to pay for each kilowatt of electricity not supplied, without prior notice, is at least 13,264 Rials and at most 78,988 Rials; The data obtained for the direct value method show that with increasing the duration of the interruption, the amount of damage caused per kilowatt-hour of unsupplied electricity decreases.The recommendation of this study is to increase reliability, declare shutdown in advance, reduce interruptions, and protect the industry-specific renewable energy production.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Mansouri Z. Analysis of milk production and consumption in Iran. Agricultural Economics Statistics; 2020. https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/0/News/1399/tolid&masshir.pdf.

2. Danshi A. Environmental Impacts of Water Consumption, Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Pasteurized Milk Life Cycle. Trabiat Modares University; 2014. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/#/articles/55bddfdc9ab44c887c2c22ca82673ecb.

3. Beldman A., Van Berkum S., Kortstee H. J. Z. Dairy farming and dairy industry in Iran. Wageningen Economic Research; 2017. https://edepot.wur.nl/417175.

4. Huitu H., Kaustell K. M. P. The effect of storms on Finnish dairy farms. electrical outage statistics and the effect on milk production. Natural Hazards. 2020; 104:1695-704. [https://doi.org/10.007/s11069-020-04240-0].

5. Abrate G., Bruno C., Erbetta F., Fraquelli G., Lorite-Espejo A. A choice experiment on the willingness of households to accept power outages. Utilities Policy. 2016; 43:151-64. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2016.09.004].

6. Küfeoğlu S., Gündüz N., Chen H., Lehtonen M. Shadow pricing of electric power interruptions for distribution system operators in Finland. Energies. 2018; 11(7):1831. [https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071831].

7. Faryadras V., Jiran A., Reza. J. Economic analysis and effectiveness of guaranteed milk purchase policy. Tehran; of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Planning Research Institute, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 2015. https://b2n.ir/e02681.

8. Zachariadis T., Andreas P. The costs of power outages: A case study from Cyprus. Energy Policy. 2012; 51:630-41. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.015].

9. Stern DI. Energy and economic growth.  Routledge handbook of Energy economics. Routledge; 2019. p. 28-46. https://b2n.ir/h35222.

10. Linares P., Rey L. The costs of electricity interruptions in Spain. Are we sending the right signals?. Energy Policy. 2013. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.083];61:751-60].

11. Wangenstein I. Power System Economics. The Nordic Electricity Market. Tehran Padina; 2018. https://b2n.ir/h24286.

12. Munasinghe M. The economics of power system reliability and planning. Baltimore; 1979. https://b2n.ir/m11556.

13. Amini F., Khosravi N. Results of calculation of blackout cost in selected industrial and mining groups. 18th International Conference on Electricity; Tehran; Power Research Institute; 2003. https://sid.ir/paper/812738/fa.

14. Khatabi Rudi N. Evaluation of power outage costs in the home sector: a case study of Torbat-e Heydarieh city. University of Water and Power Industry; 2009. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/#/articles/202ac4cdf0cf575aeeadda1b302eaf9b.

15. Shariati Dehaghan H., Marousti V., Mohammad Fathabadi A., Sharif Yazdi A. Optimal plan to apply blackouts in Yazd regional electricity network to reduce costs imposed on consumers.  Twenty-fourth International Conference on Electricity; Tehran; Power Research Institute; 2009. https://civilica.com/doc/89392.

16. Ghofrani P. Economic evaluation of power outages due to power outages with conditional valuation technique in the industrial sector: A case study of Sabzevar city (2013).  The first national conference on the development of civil engineering, architecture, electricity and mechanics in Iran; Gorgan2014. https://civilica.com/doc/325632/.

17. Yousefi K., Vesal M. The effect of blackout on industry: Evidence from Iranian industrial workshops. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies. 2020; 27:69-88.  http://qjerp.ir/article-1-2339-fa.html.

18. Manzoor D., Rezaei H. Calculating Electricity Shadow Price In Iranian Power Market. Journal Of Economic Modeling Research. 2012 2:155-72.

https://sid.ir/paper/208880/fa.

19. Molaei M.A., Manzour D., Rezaee H. Process of Determining Market Equilibrium Price of Electricity. System Dynamics Approach. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics. 2012 9(2):71-86.

[https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2012.10566].

20. Hashemlou B., Masaeli A., Sadeghi H., Nasseri A.R., Hajian M. Determination of Shadow Price of Iran Electricity Market Using the Fuzzy Electricity Generation Planning. Current World Environment. 2015; 10: 76-83 . [http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CWE.10.1.09].

21. Ghadari J., Estedlal S. Investigating the effect of rising electricity prices on the net welfare of different income groups in Iran (2004-2005). Sustainable growth and development research (economic research). 2009; 9:101-20.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-10550-fa.html.

22. Pajhwian J., Mohammadi T. Optimal cryptographic pricing for Iran's electricity industry. Allameh Tabataba’i University. 2000; 6:39-61. https://sid.ir/paper/2739/fa.

23. Green R. Electricity Transmission Pricing: How much does it cost to get it wrong?. A Joint Center of the Department of Economics, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, and Sloan School of Management. 2004; 1-24. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/45028.

24. Coelli T.J., Gautier A., Perelman S., Saplacan-Pop R. Estimating the cost of improving quality in electricity distribution: A parametric distance function approach. Energy Policy. 2013; 53:287-97.

[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.060].

25. Bose R.K., Shukla M., Srivastava L., Yaron G. Cost of unserved power in Karnataka, India. Energy Policy. 2006;34(12):1434–47. [https://doi.org/10.016/j.enpol.2005.09.017].

26. Kaseke N., Hosking S. Cost of power outages in the Zimbabwean agriculture sector. Journal of Strategic Studies; A Journal of the Southern Bureau of Strategic Studies Trust. 2011; 2(1):1-31.

https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC51210.

27. Pasha H., Ghaus-Pasha A., Saleem W. Cost of Loadshedding to Agriculture Sector. Institute Of Public Policy Beaconhouse National University; 2012. http://sjbipp.org/publications/PR/projectreport/PR-27-16.pdf.

28. Taale F., Kyeremeh C. Households׳ willingness to pay for reliable electricity services in Ghana. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2016; 62:280-8.

[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.04.046].

29. Amadi H.N., Okafor E.N. The Direct Assessment and Captive Costs Methods for Estimating the Economic Costs of Power Outages among Selected Industries in Nigeria. American Journal of Engineering Research (AJER). 2015; 4(5):239-44. https://b2n.ir/u77721.

30. Ghafouri A. Estimation of reduced milk production due to clinical and subclinical mastitis in Iranian Holstein dairy cows. Isfahan University of Technology; 2016. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/#/articles/7086980acee45b9f85afa3d326e6cddd.

31. Hosseini Nejad M., Mashak Z. Effects of somatic cell count in subclinical mastitis on raw milk quality in dairy farms of Khuzestan province. Veterinary clinical pathology. 2016; 9(4):335-63. https://jvcp.tabriz.iau.ir/article_520294.html?lang=fa.

32. Daqiq Kia H., Badraghe H., Moghadam G.A., Alijani S., Najafi A. Effect of an increasing the somatic cells on milk yield and its composition in Holstein dairy cows. Ruminant Research. 2015; 9(4):335-63. https://sid.ir/paper/243997/fa.

33. Safarzadeh Baghal F. Measurment of blood trace elemnts and antioxidants in cattle with clinical and subclinical mycoplasma mastitis. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad; 2018. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/viewer/f1d0dab7dae970c1c95410673cefce20?sample=1.

34. Kor K. Effects of heat stress on milk production and reproductive efficiency of dairy cows in industrial farms in Golestan province. Gonbad Kavous University; 2013. https://ganj.irandoc.ac.ir/#/articles/299e2059dbe60a1be7d9483261199362.

35. Khamirchi R., Saqi M., Ahmadiyya Asour A., Waziri T, Rastegar A. Investigation of physical and chemical characteristics of fertilizer obtained from the combination of animal and poultry waste in the biogas system. Journal of Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences. 2013:209-20. https://sid.ir/paper/82447/fa.