بررسی آثار تغییر نرخ ارز بر ارزش افزوده‌ی بخش‌کشاورزی ایران و ارائه سیاست‌های حمایتی لازم در شرایط فرارو

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

کوهسار خالدی ¹

1 - استادیار پژوهشی مؤسسه‌ پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه‌ روستایی، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/07/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/01/30 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/02/01

کلید واژه: ایران, بخش کشاورزی, نرخ ارز, سیاست‌های حمایتی جبرانی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: تغییر نرخ ارز از طریق تغییر قیمت‌های تمام شده و اثرگذاری بر تجارت نهاده‌ها و محصولات کشاورزی، باعث بروز آثار مثبت و منفی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی این بخش از جمله تراز تجاری و ارزش افزوده‌ی آن خواهد شد. این مطالعه به دنبال بررسی اثرگذاری نرخ ارز بر ارزش افزوده‌ی کشاورزی ایران و ارائه‌ی سیاست‌های حمایتی لازم می‌باشد. مواد و روش‌ها: در مطالعه‌ی حاضر، با استفاده از آمارهای 96-1357، آثار تغییرات نرخ ارز آزاد بر ارزش افزوده‌ی بخش کشاورزی ایران در قالب یک مدل‌ رگرسیونی ARDL، برآورد و مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. یافته‌ها: نتایج حاکی از اثر مثبت معنی‌دار اما باوقفه‌ی افزایش نرخ ارز آزاد و اثر منفی معنی‌دار اما باوقفه‌ی بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز آزاد بر میزان ارزش افزوده‌ی کشاورزی در کوتاه‌مدت است. در بلندمدت، نرخ ارز آزاد و بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز آزاد، تاثیر معنی‌داری بر ارزش افزوده‌ی کشاورزی ایران ندارند و رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی در بلندمدت، تابع سرمایه‌گذاری است. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: برای حمایت از کشاورزی در شرایط فرارو و در راستای حفظ رشد اقتصادی آن، مدیریت هدفمند تامین نهاده‌های کشاورزی، افزایش قیمت خرید تضمینی محصولات، پرداخت یارانه‌های نهاده‌ای، تزریق سرمایه‌ی دولتی در کشاورزی و حمایت از سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی در کشاورزی پیشنهاد می‌شوند. طبقه‌بندی JEL: F13, M38, Q13, Q17, Q28

چکیده انگلیسی:

Changes in the exchange rate through changing prices and affecting the trade of inputs and agricultural products will have positive and negative effects on economic variables such as trade balance and its added value. The effect of the exchange rate (its rate and instability) on Iran's agricultural value-added as a study objective was studied using 1977-2018 statistics. results showed a significant positive effect of free exchange rate lag and significant negative effect of free exchange rate volatility on agricultural value added in the short-run; in long run, free exchange rate and free exchange rate volatility had no significant effect on value-added of Iran,s agriculture. The long-term economic growth of the agricultural sector depends on investment. to support agriculture in the forward conditions and in order to maintain its economic growth, targeted management of agricultural inputs, increased guaranteed purchase prices of products, payment of institutional subsidies, injection of public capital into agriculture, and support for private investment in agriculture are proposed.

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