سنجش آسیب پذیری استان‌های ایران از تغییرات اقلیمی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

فاطمه عساکره ¹ , زکریا فرج زاده ²

1 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، ایران.
2 - دانشیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/05/21 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/03/07 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/02/01

کلید واژه: تغییر اقلیم, آسیب‌پذیری, سازگاری, آمادگی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه: تغییر اقلیم و آسیب­پذیری ناشی از آن بویژه در کشورهای درحال­توسعه مورد تأکید قرار گرفته است. این پدیده در مورد ایران با توجه به شرایط اقلیمی آن می­تواند زمینه آسیب­پذیری بیش‌تری را فرآهم کند. در مورد ایران تنوع بالای استان­ها و تفاوت در مقدار برخورداری از امکان مقابله با پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم نیازمند ارزیابی بیش‌تر می­باشد. هدف: این مطالعه با هدف سنجش آسیب­پذیری استان­های ایران و ارزیابی مقدار آمادگی آن­ها برای مقابله با آسیب­ها صورت گرفت. مواد و روش‌ها: سنجش آسیب­پذیری از راه محاسبه سه بعد شامل مواجهه، حساسیت و ظرفیت تطبیقی و با استفاده از دو روش وزن­دهی ساده و فازی انجام شد. برای هر یک از ابعاد، متغیرهای متعددی بکار گرفته شد. هم‌چنین، از تفاضل شاخص آسیب­پذیری و شاخص آمادگی، نمره نهایی یا شاخص سازگاری محاسبه شد. برای محاسبه شاخص­ها از آخرین داده­های موجود استفاده شد. یافته‌ها: بر اساس یافته­ها مشخص شد تمام استان­ها آسیب­پذیر هستند و از نگاه آسیب­پذیری تفاوت زیادی میان آن­ها مشاهده نمی­شود، اما از نظر آمادگی تفاوتی بیش‌تر مشاهده می­شود. استان­های بوشهر، چهارمحال­وبختیاری و البرز با مقدار شاخص 65/0-55/0 بیش‌ترین آسیب­پذیری را نشان دادند و استان­های ایلام، قزوین و اصفهان با مقدار عددی 45/0-35/0 دارای کم‌ترین آسیب­پذیری ارزیابی شدند. بر اساس مقادیر بدست­آمده از روش فازی، شاخص آمادگی تهران حدود 84/0 بدست آمد در حالی­که این رقم برای سایر استان­ها کم‌تر از 45/0 می­باشد. هم‌چنین، مقدار نمره نهایی یا شاخص سازگاری برای تهران 65/0 بدست­ آمد و استان­های سمنان، قزوین و اصفهان با مقدار شاخص 48/0-45/0 در رتبه های بعد قرار گرفتند. 

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Climate change and the resulting vulnerability has been emphasized in developing nations increasingly. Regarding the vulnerable situation of Iran, this phenomenon may cause more adverse effects. There is a great divergence among the Iranian provinces in terms of their ability and capability to cope with the climate change effects, needing for more deeply investigation. Aim: The objective of this study is to measure the vulnerability of the Iranian provinces and to examine their readiness to cope with the damages. Materials and Methods: Vulnerability measurement includes measuring three components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Different variables were used to measure these components. The compatibility index was measured by subtracting the vulnerability score from the readiness score for each province. The most recent data was applied to calculate the indices. Findings: The results showed that all provinces, to some extent, are vulnerable to climate change and there is an insignificant difference among them in terms of vulnerability; however, they may be clearly distinguished in terms of their readiness. Boushehr, Charmahal and Bakhtiari and Alborz were found to be more vulnerable with scores ranging from 0.55 to 0.65 while Ilam, Isfahan and Qazvin with scores of 0.35-0.45 were classified as provinces with lowest vulnerability. Based on the readiness scores, Tehran ranked as the first one with score of 0.84 while the corresponding value for other provinces were obtained less than 0.45. The final score or compatibility index of Tehran was obtained 0.65 followed by Semnan, Qazvin and Isfahan with corresponding values of 0.45-0.48. 

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