اثرات الگوی کشت بهینه بر وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی حوضه آبریز زاینده‌رود: کاربرد مدل هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیحدیث کاوند 1 , سامان ضیائی 2 , مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی 3
1 - دانشگاه زابل، دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی
2 - عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل
3 - استادیار گروه مهندسی ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان
کلید واژه: الگوی کشت, شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی, بازده برنامه‌ای, فناوری‌های نوین,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه و هدف: منابع آب در حوضه‌ی آبریز رودخانه زاینده‌رود به دلیل خشکسالی و اثرات تغییر اقلیم در دهه‌های اخیر به شدت کاهش یافته و معیشت کشاورزان در سطح حوضه را با چالش همراه ساخته است. از این‌رو ارائه یک الگوی کشت هدفمند در جهت افزایش رفاه کشاورزان با توجه به پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه می‌تواند نقش موثری در بهبود اوضاع هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی سطح حوضه ایفا نماید.
مواد و روشها: در این مطالعه مدل شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی (مدل WEAP) با مدل بهینه‌یابی اقتصادی با هدف بیشینه‌سازی بازده برنامه‌ای کشاورزان با یکدیگر تلفیق شده‌است. همچنین، جهت برآورد نیاز آبی و عملکرد محصولات تحت بررسی، از ماژول MABIA استفاده شد.
یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد که در با بکارگیری الگوی کشت بهینه اقتصادی نسبت به شرایط کنونی، بازده برنامه‌ای برای مناطق نجف‌آباد، مهیار شمالی، لنجانات، کوهپایه-سگزی، اصفهان-برخوار و بن-سامان به ترتیب 14، 5، 15، 18، 15 و 20 میلیون ریال در هکتار افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین، با افزایش سهم بکارگیری فناوری‌های نوین آبیاری در الگوی بهینه نسبت به الگوی کنونی، پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه از جمله مقدار تقاضای تأمین نشده آب حدود 14 درصد کاهش و درصد قابلیت اطمینان تأمین تقاضای آب حدود 2 درصد بهبود خواهد یافت.
بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که می‌توان با بکارگیری یک الگوی کشت بهینه، تضاد دو هدف اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی را مرتفع و بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه را ممکن ساخت.
Introduction: Water resources in the Zayandehrood River basin have decreased sharply in recent decades due to drought and the effects of climate change and have challenged the livelihood of farmers in the basin. Therefore, providing a purposeful cropping pattern to increase the welfare of farmers according to the hydrological parameters of the basin can play an effective role in improving the hydrological and economic situation of the basin.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the hydrological simulation model (WEAP model) is combined with the economic optimization model with the aim of maximizing the farmers' gross margins. Also, MABIA module was used to estimate the net water requarment and yield of the crops under study.
Findings: The results showed that by applying the optimal economic cultivation model compared to the current situation, the gross margin for Najafabad, Mahyar Shomali, Lenjanat, Kuhpayeh-Segzi, Isfahan-Borkhar and Ben-Saman regions are 14, 5, 15, 18, , 15 and 20 million rials per hectare will increase, respectively. Also, using the new irrigation technologies in the optimal model compared to the current model, the hydrological parameters of the basin, including the amount of unmet water demand will be reduced about 14% and the reliability of water demand will be improved about 2%.
Conclusion: The results of this study show that by using an optimal cultivation model, the conflict between the two economic and hydrological objectives can be resolved and it is possible to improve the economic and hydrological conditions of the basin.
Ghafari Moghadam Z, Keikha A, Sabuhi Sabuni MA. Game theory model for optimal allocation of water resources in semi-well reservoirs. Journal of Iran Water Resource Research. 2012; 8(3):12-23. [DOI:10.3390/w10091184]
Varela-Ortega C, Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Swartz CH, Downing TE. Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework. Global Environmental Change. 2011; 21(2):604-619. [DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.001]
Kahil MT, Dinar A, Albiac J. Modelling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions. Journal of Hydrology. 2015; 522:95-109. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.042]
4Kahil MT, Ward FA, Albiac J, Eggleston J, Sanz D. Hydro-economic modeling with aquifer–river interactions to guide sustainable basin management. Journal of Hydrology. 2016; 539:510-524. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.057]
Gohar AA, Amer SA, Ward FA. Irrigation infrastructure and water appropriation rules for food security. Journal of Hydrology. 2015; 520:85-100. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.036]
Salehi S, Chizari M, Sadighi H, Bijani M. Assessment of agricultural groundwater users in Iran a cultural environmental bias. Hydrogeology Journal. 2017; 26(1):258-295. [DOI:10.1007/s10040-017-1634-9]
Sanz D, Castaño S, Cassiraga E, Sahuquillo A, Gómez J, Peña S, Calera A. Modeling aquifer–river interactions under the influence of
groundwater abstractions in the Mancha Oriental System (SE Spain). Hydrogeology Journal. 2011; 19(2):475-487. [DOI:10.1007/s10040-010-0694-x]
Esteban E, Albiac J, The problem of sustainable groundwater management the case of La Mancha aquifers Spain. Hydrogeology Journal 2012; 20 (5):851–863. [DOI:10.1007/s10040-012-0853-3]
Harou JJ, Pulido-Velazquez M, Rosenberg DE, Medellín-Azuara J, Lund JR, Howitt RE. Hydro-economic models: concepts, design, applications, and future prospects. Journal of Hydrology. 2009; 375(3–4):627–643. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.037]
Booker J, Howitt R, Michelsen A, Young R. Economics and the modeling of water resources and policies. Natural Resource Modeling. 2012; 25 (1):168– 218. [DOI:10.1111/j.1939-7445.2011.00105.x]
Pulido-Velazquez M, andreu J, Sahuquillo A, Pulido-Valazquez D. Hydro-economic river basin modelling the application of a holistic surface-groundwater model to assess opportunity cost of water use in Spain. Ecological Economics. 2008; 66(1):51-65. [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.12.016]
Tanaka SK, Zhu T, Lund JR, Howitt RE, Jenkins MW, Pulido MA, Tauber M, Ritzema RS, Ferreira I.C. Climate warming and water management adaptation for California. Climate Change. 2006; 76, 361-387. [DOI:10.1007/s10584-006-9079-5]
Ward FA. Economic impacts on irrigated agriculture of water conservation programs in drought. Journal of Hydrology. 2014; 508, 114-127. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.024]
Nikouei A, Zibaei M, Ward FA. Incentives to adopt irrigation water saving measures for wetlands preservation, an integrated basin scale analysis. Journal of Hydrology. 2012; 464-465, 216-232. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.07.013]
Nikouei A, Ward FA. Pricing irrigation water for drought adaptation in Iran. Journal of Hydrology. 2013; 503:29-46. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.025]
Kahil MT, Ward FA, Albiac J, Eggleston J, Sanz D. Hydro-economic modeling with aquifer–river interactions to guide sustainable basin management. Journal of Hydrology. 2015; 539:510-524. [DOI:0.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.057]
Esteve P, Varela-Ortega C, Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Downing TE. A hydro economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture. Ecological Economics, 2015; 120:49–58. [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.09.017]
Soltani GH, Sabuhi M. Optimization of cropping patterns in the catchment area with emphasis on social benefits and pure import of virtual water Case study of Khorasan area. Journal of Hydrology and Soil Science. 2008; 12(43 a):297-313.
Asad Falsafizadeh N, Sabuhi M. Determination of optimal water harvesting from peripheral runoff in the drainage basin of the Khor River, Doroodzan dam. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2008; 24(4):415-424.
Nikouei A. Modeling economic-hydrological allocation water in Zayandehrud Basin with emphasis on environmental and drought policy assessment. DR. Thesis Agriculture Economic, School of Agriculture, University of Shiraz. 2012.
Tarazkar MH. Integrated water resources management at Doroodzan Dam Basin. DR. Thesis Agriculture Economic, School of Agriculture, University of Shiraz. 2015.
Yates D, Sieber J, Purkey D, Huber-Lee A. WEAP21—a demand, priority, and preference-driven water planning model. Water International. 2005; 30(4):487–500. [DOI:10.1080/02508060508691893]
Huber-Lee A, Purkey DR, Sieber J, Swartz C, Young C. Sustainable water supply planning for three US cities contrasts in climates and stakeholder issues. In Paper Presented at the Stockholm Water Symposium. 2004; 16-20. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.15625/2525-2518/58/3A/14370]
Groves DG, Yates D, Tebaldi C. Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning. Water Resource Research .2008; 44: W12413. [DOI:10.1029/2008WR006964]
Purkey DR, Joyce B, Vicuna S, Hanemann MW, Dale LL, Yates D, Dracup JA. Robust analysis of future climate change impacts on water for agriculture and other sectors: a case study in the Sacramento Valley. Climatic Change. 2008; 87(S1):109-122. [DOI:10.1007/s10584-007-9375-8]
Demertzi ΚА, Papamichail DМ, Georgiou PЕ, Karamouzis DN, Aschonitis VG. Assessment of rural and highly seasonal tourist activity plus drought effects on reservoir operation in a semi-arid region of Greece using the WEAP model. Water International. 2014; 39, (1):23-34. [DOI:10.1080/02508060.2013.848315]
Gaiser TH, Printz A, Schwarz-v.Raumer HG, Götzinger J. Development of a regional model for integrated management of wate resources at the basin scale. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C. 2008; 33(1-2):175-182. [DOI:10.1016/j.pce.2007.04.018]
Varela-Ortega C, Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Swartz CH, Downing TE. balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework. Global Environmental Change. 2011; 21(2):604-619. [DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.001]
Purkey DR, Huber-Lee A, Yates DN, Hanemann M, Herrod-Julius S. Integrating a climate change assessment tool into stakeholder-driven water management decision-making processes in California. Water Resource Management. 2007; 21(1): 315-329. [DOI:10.1007/s11269-006-9055-x]
Huber-Lee A, Purkey DR, Sieber J, Swartz C, Young, C. Decision Support System for Sustainable Water Supply Planning, Awwa Research Foundation, Denver, 2006; 16-20.
Vigerstol KL, Aukema JE. A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services. Journal of Environmental Management. 2001; 92(10):2403-2409. [DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.040]
Assaf H, Saadeh M. Assessing water quality management options in the Upper Litani Basin, Lebanon using an integrated GIS-based decision support system. Environmental Modeling & Software. 2008 23 (10-11):1327-1337. [DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.03.006]
Mehta VK, Rheinheimer DE, Yates D, Purkey DR, Viers JH, Young CA, Mount JF. Potential impacts on hydrology and hydropower production under climate warming of the Sierra Nevada. Journal Water Climate Change. 2011; 2(1):29-43. [DOI:10.2166/wcc.2011.054]
Hu L, Wang Z, Robin W, Liang Y. Application of improved WEAP model in water resources management. Modern Applied Science. 2009; 40(2):173-179.
Li Y, Li H. A WEAP-based model for the management of water quality and safety in Xitiaoxi watershed. Advances in Water Science. 2010; 21(5): 666-673.
Yazdanpanah T, Davari K, Khodashenas S, Ghahreman B. Increasing of irrigation efficiency and impact on groundwater. Third Conference on Water Resources Management, Tabriz, Iran Water Resources Science and Engineering Society. 2008.
Afzali Borujeni AS, Rahnam M, Goghari KS. Evaluation and simulation of the water transfer scheme between Koohrang 3 basins using the model WEAP. Third National Conference on Integrated Water Resources Management University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources Sari, Sari, Iran. 2012.
Amini A, Javan M, Eghbalzadeh A, Ghasemi MR. Evaluation of water resources management in Gamasiab basin of Kermanshah province using model WEAP. Journal of Water Resources Engineering. 2016; 10:13-18.
Zeinodini S. Anoori S. Zahmatkesh Z. Application of simulate optimization approache to assess the effect of climate and management scenarios on a water resource system. Iran-Wate Resources Research. 2018; 14(5): 295-310.
Yang L, Bai X, Zheng Khanna N, Yi S, Hu Y, Denga J, Gao H, Tuo L, Xianga SH, Zhoub N. Water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model application for exploring the water deficit at catchment level in Beijing. Desalination and Water Treatment. 2018; 118:12–25. [DOI:10.5004/dwt.2018.22332]
Regional Water Company of Isfahan. Comprehensive Reports on Water Resources in the Zayandehrud Watershed. Available online at: 2016. http://www.esrw.ir/.site.
Sieber J, Yates D, Huber Lee A, Purkey D. WEAP a demand, priority, and preference driven water planning model: Part 1, model characteristics, Water International. 2005; 30(4):487–500. [DOI:10.1080/02508060508691893]
Westerhoff L, Smit B. The Rains are disappointing us: Dynamic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Multiple Stressors in the Afram Plains, Ghana. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 2008; 14(4):317-337.
[DOI:10.1016/S0305750X(98)00136-3]
Reidsma P, Ewert F, Lansil A, Leemans R. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture. The importance of farm level responses. European Journal of Agronomy. 2010; 32: 91-102. [DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2009.06.003]
Kalbali E, Ziaee S, Mardani Najafabadi M, Zakerinia M. Approaches to adapting to impacts of climate change in northern Iran: The application of a Hydrogy-Economics model. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2021; 280: 124067. [DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124067]
Mardani Najafabadi M, Ziaee S, Nikouei A, Ahmadpour Borazjani M. Mathematical programming model (MMP) for optimization of regional cropping patterns decisions: A case study. Agricultural Systems. 2019; 173: 218-232.
Kavand H, Ziaee S, Mardani Najafabadi M. Assessing the Consequences of Internalization of the Side Effects of Water Pollution on the Quantitative and Qualitative Management of Zayandehroud Basin. Journal Of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2020; 34(3): 356-341.
_||_