Probability Distribution Fitting to Maternal Mortality in Nigeria.

Subject Areas : International Journal of Mathematical Modelling & Computations

Isqeel Ogunsola ¹ , Jeremiah Akinpeloye ² , Lawal Dada ³

1 - Department of Statistics, College of Physical Sciences, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State
2 - Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Publich Health, University of Ibadan
3 - Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Received: 2020-02-29 Accepted : 2020-06-07 Published : 2020-06-20

Keywords: EDA, Maternal mortality (MM), MMR, Probability distribution, BIC,

Abstract :

The consequences of Maternal Mortality (MM) cannot be overemphasized. It inhibits population growth resulting into loss of lives among others. This work tends to obtain the maternal mortality rates (MMR) in Nigeria, identify some fitted distributions to MMR and determine which of the distributions best fits the data. A comprehensive Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) was carried on MM and the MMRs were obtained. Two parameters Gamma distribution, Weibull and Exponential distributions were fitted for MM. Both BIC and AIC selection criteria were adopted in selecting the most fitted distribution. The AIC for Gamma, Weibull and Exponential distributions fitted for MMR were 1339.396, 1340.161 and 370.5244 respectively. Also, the BIC for Gamma, Weibull and Exponential distributions fitted for MM were 1344.971, 1345.736 and 373.3119 respectively. It can be observed that Exponential distribution has the least AIC (370.5244) and least BIC (373.3119), therefore, it is the most fitted distribution for MM. The estimate (standard error) of exponential distribution on MM is 0.5853 indicating the fitness of the distribution being the one with the least error. Conclusively, the model obtained from this study can be used to study and monitor MM in Nigeria to achieve a better economy and thus brings about local and national development.