نقش عوامل ریسکی اخلال (نویز) و عمق بازار در تبیین بازده آتی سهام

محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی مالی

سپیده عرب ¹ , مجید زنجیردار ² , حسن زارعی ³

1 - گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
2 - گروه مدیریت مالی، دانشکده مدیریت، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
3 - گروه مهندسی مالی، دانشکده مدیریت، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/10/07 تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/11/13 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/04/01

کلید واژه: "اخلال", "عمق بازار", "بازده آتی", "عوامل ریسکی اخلال",

چکیده مقاله :

هدف این تحقیق بررسی نقش عوامل ریسکی اخلال (نویز) و عمق بازار در تبیین بازده آتی سهام در شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است. قلمرو مکانی، شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار و قلمرو زمانی، بین 1392 تا 1396 می‌باشد. عوامل ریسکی اخلال و عمق بازار متغیرهای مستقل و بازده آتی سهام متغیر وابسته در نظر گرفته شد. تحقیق حاضر توصیفی (همبستگی) و از نوع کاربردی می‌باشد. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها، از روش کتابخانه‌ای و با مراجعه به صورت‌های مالی، یادداشت‌های توضیحی و ماهنامه بورس اوراق بهادار شرکت‌های نمونه انجام پذیرفت. تحلیل داده‌های توصیفی و استنباطی (‌آزمون‌های ناهمسانی واریانس، F لیمر، هاسمن و جارک – برا و آزمون رگرسیون چند متغیره) با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ایویوز انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد تغییرات عامل ریسکی اخلال به‌صورت یک صرف ریسک خود را در بازده آتی و عامل‌های ریسکی تغییرات عمق بازار مشتمل بر میانگین تغییرات موزون حجم سفارشات و تغییرات توازن بین سفارشات خرید و فروش به‌صورت یک صرف ریسک خود را در بازده آتی نشان می‌دهد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده در این پژوهش با تئوری بازار دارای اخلال مطابقت دارد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of noise risk factors and market depth in explaining future stock returns in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. The locative domain, the companies listed in the Stock Exchange and the time period, is between 2013 and 2017. noisy risk factors and the depth of the market are independent variables and future stock return is dependent variable. The research is descriptive (correlation) and applied. Data collection was done by library method and by referring to financial statements, explanatory notes and stock exchange monthly of sample companies. Descriptive and inferential data analysis (pre-test variance analysis, F Limer, Hassman & Jark-Bra test and multivariate regression test) were performed using Eviews software. The results showed that the changes of noisy risk factor indicate itself as a risk premium in future returns and risky factors of market depth changes, including the average variation in the volume of orders and the balancing changes between sales orders indicate itself as a risk premium in the future returns. The results obtained in this study are consistent with the Market theory of Noise.

منابع و مأخذ:

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1) Ahmadi, Gholam Ali. Imam Juma, Seyyed Mohammad Reza. Alizadeh, Leila. (2014). Investigating the amount of attention paid to the components of financial and economic literacy in the content of elementary school textbooks, research in curriculum planning, 179-192.
2) Message, Adel. Torani, Haider. (1390). The role of the economics curriculum in the world's official and public education program, providing an action plan for a neglected curriculum. Educational Innovation, No. 37.
3) Taftian, Akram. Hoshiarzadeh, Mohammad. (2016). The necessity of financial education and financial and economic literacy in the educational system: empirical results in the educational system of the Czech Republic. The third international conference on management, accounting and knowledge-based economics.
4) Jalilund, Abul Hassan. Rostami Norouzabad, Mojtabi. (2017). Interactions of financial literacy, investors' emotions, risk perception and willingness to invest: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange. Investment Knowledge, 7(27): 141-170.
5) Dianti, Zahra. Hanifazadeh, Mohammad. (2014). Investigating the level of financial literacy of Tehrani families and related factors. Financial knowledge of securities analysis. 26: 115-139.
6) Delawar, Ali. (1383). Research method in psychology and educational sciences. Edit.
7) Rahimi, Hossein. Tavakoli, Najma. (2017). Investigating the relationship between financial and demographic literacy levels. The first national conference on management, economy and resistance economy.
8) Sajadi, Ibrahim. (2016). Examining the relationship between financial literacy, investors' feelings, risk perception and willingness to invest; Explanation of the optimal model (evidence from individual and institutional investors in Tehran Stock Exchange). Master's thesis. Islamic Azad University of Safadasht
9) Saberi, Hossein. (2016). Investigating the relationship between managers' financial literacy and non-financial performance of state-owned banks in Ilam city, considering the mediating role of moral intelligence. Master's thesis. Bakhtar Ilam Institute of Higher Education.
10) Qalmaq, Karim. Yaqubnejad, Ahmed. Fallah Shams, Faiz. (2015). The effect of financial literacy on the behavioral patterns of Tehran Stock Exchange investors. Financial management perspective. 6(16).
11) Moradi, Javad. Yazidi, Mansoura. (2013). Investigating the effect of investors' financial literacy on the decision to invest in securities. Investment Knowledge, 4(13): 127-150.
12) Moinuddin, Mahmoud. Hirani, Forough. Hamedinia, Hadi. (2012). Examining the financial literacy of government employees and its effect on their financial well-being and financial strategies. Master's thesis of Islamic Azad University, Yazd branch.
13) Yaqub Nejad, Ahmed. Nikumram, Hashem, Moinuddin, Mahmoud. (1390). Presenting a model to measure the financial literacy of Iranian students using the Delphi-Fuzzy method. Financial Engineering and Securities Management, 2(8): 1-49.
14) Allgood, Sam & Walstad, William B, (2011), The Effect of Perceived and Actual Financial Knowledge on Credit Card Behavior, Networks Financial Institute.
15) Amagir, A. Groot, W. Wilschut, A. (2017). A review of financial-literacy education programs for children and adolescents. Citizenship, Social and Economic Education.
16) Bayer, P. J., Bernheim, B. D., & Scholz, J. K. (2018). The Effects of Financial Education in the Workplace: Evidence from a Survey of Employers. Working paper.
17) Blue, L., Grootenboer, P., & Brimble, M. (2014). Financial literacy education in the curriculum: Making the grade or missing the mark? International Review of Economics Education, 16, Part A, 51-62
18) Brabazon, Tony, (2015), Behavioral Finance: A Vew Auririse or A False Down? Coll Sumer School, University of Limerick.
19) Calcagno, R., & Monticone, C. (2015). Financial literacy and the demand for financial advice. Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 363-380.
20) Creswell, J. (2005). Designing and conducting mixed method research. Thousand oak.
21) Cole, Sampson, & Zia (2010), Price or Knowledge? What Drives Demand for Financial Services in Emerging Markets? HBS Working Papers 09-11 forthcoming in the Journal of Finance http://www.csicr.cz/getattachment/af0099dc-1653-4f68-b01a-83a38b71d801.
22) Chang, C.-H., & Lin, S.-J. (2015). The effects of national culture and behavioral pitfalls on investors' decision-making: Herding behavior in international stock markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 37, 380-392.
23) Devlin, J. F. (2003) 'Monitoring the success of policy initiatives to increase consumer understanding of financial services', Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance,11,2151-163.
24) Deacon, S., & Ennew, C. (2001). Consumer Perceptions of Financial Risk. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance. Issues and Practice, 26(3), 389-409.
25) Driver, C., & Dowrick, S. (1997). INVESTMENT INTENTIONS AS AN INDICATOR OF ACTUAL INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING*. Australian Economic Papers, 36(68), 90-105
26) Flores, S. A. M., & Vieira, K. M. (2014). Propensity towards indebtedness: An analysis using behavioral factors. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 3, 1-10.
27) Grohmann, A. (2018). Financial literacy and financial behavior: Evidence from the emerging Asian middle class. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. 48: 129-143.
28) 28)‌ Hastings, J. S., & Tejeda-Ashton, L. (2016). Financial Literacy, Information, and Demand Elasticity: Survey and Experimental Evidence from Mexico. NBER Working Paper.
29) Xiao, Nilton Porto, (2017) "Financial education and financial satisfaction: Financial literacy, behavior, and capability as mediators", International Journal of Bank Marketing, Vol. 35 Issue: 5, pp. 8

05-817
30) Klapper, L., A. Lusardi, and G. A. Panos (2013). Financial literacy and its consequences: Evidence from Russia during the financial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 37 (10), 3904–3923.
31) Lerman, R. (2006). Financial Literacy Strategies: Where Do We Go From Here? Networks Financial Institute Policy Brief. 10.
32) Lopus, Jane S, and Lăcătuş, Maria Liana, (2002), "Economic Education in the High Schools: Post-communist Romania and United States", the Journal of Private Enterprise 17.2.
33) Lusardi, A. (2019). Financial literacy and the need for financial education: evidence and implications. Lusardi Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 155:1.
34) Lusardi, A. (2015). Financial literacy: Do people know the ABCs of finance? : Journal of Public Understanding of Science, Vol. 24(3) 260–271.
35) Mohammadpour, Ahmad (2013) Qualitative research method, anti-method 1 (logic and design in qualitative methodology), sociologists' publication. [Persian]
36) Mouna, A. Anis, J. (2017). Financial literacy in Tunisia: Its determinants and its implications on investment behavior. Research in International Business and finance. 39: 568-577.
37) Paiella, M. (2016). Financial literacy and subjective expectations questions: A validation exercise. Research in Economics, 70(2), 360-374.
38) PISA (2012), Financial Literacy Assessment Framework, OECD
39) Ramagir, P. Samantho, G. (2017). Financial literacy education for adults. Basic theory and Education, 5(2).
40) Scott Wolla, (2017) "Evaluating the effectiveness of an online module for increasing financial literacy", Social Studies Research and Practice, Vol. 12 Issue: 2, pp. 154-167.
41) Shen, C.-H., Lin, S.-J., Tang, D.-P., & Hsiao, Y.-J. (2016). The relationship between financial disputes and financial literacy. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 36, 46-65.
42) Speziale HS, Streubert HJ, Carpenter DR. Qualitative research in nursing: Advancing the humanistic imperative. 5th ed. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2011.
43) Strauss, Anselm L.; Corbin, Juliet M (1990) "Basics of qualitative research: Grounded theory procedures and techniques" 1st Edition.
44) Strauss, Anselm and Corbin, Juliet (2006); Principles and Methods of Qualitative Research, Basic Theory and Practices, Translation by Biouk Mohammadi, Tehran, Institute of Humanities and Cultural Studies
45) U.S. Department of Treasury. (2008). Financial literacy and education commission. Retrieved June 15, 2008, from www.MyMoney.gov.
46) (46Van Rooij, M., A. Lusardi, and R. Alessie (2018). Financial literacy and stock market participation. Journal of Financial Economics 101 (2), 449-472.
47) Waweru, N. M., Munyoki, E., & Uliana, E. (2008). The effects of behavioral factors in investment decision-making: a survey of institutional investors operating at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, 1(1), 24-4
Total
Hamdi, Gholam Ali. Imam Juma, Seyyed Mohammad Reza. Alizadeh, Leila. (2014). Investigating the amount of attention paid to the components of financial and economic literacy in the content of elementary school textbooks, research in curriculum planning, 179-192.
2) Message, Adel. Torani, Haider. (1390). The role of the economics curriculum in the world's official and public education program, providing an action plan for a neglected curriculum. Educational Innovation, No. 37.
3) Taftian, Akram. Hoshiarzadeh, Mohammad. (2016). The necessity of financial education and financial and economic literacy in the educational system: empirical results in the educational system of the Czech Republic. The third international conference on management, accounting and knowledge-based economics.
4) Jalilund, Abul Hassan. Rostami Norouzabad, Mojtabi. (2017). Interactions of financial literacy, investors' emotions, risk perception and willingness to invest: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange. Investment Knowledge, 7(27): 141-170.
5) Dianti, Zahra. Hanifazadeh, Mohammad. (2014). Investigating the level of financial literacy of Tehrani families and related factors. Financial knowledge of securities analysis. 26: 115-139.
6) Delawar, Ali. (1383). Research method in psychology and educational sciences. Edit.
7) Rahimi, Hossein. Tavakoli, Najma. (2017). Investigating the relationship between financial and demographic literacy levels. The first national conference on management, economy and resistance economy.
8) Sajadi, Ibrahim. (2016). Examining the relationship between financial literacy, investors' feelings, risk perception and willingness to invest; Explanation of the optimal model (evidence from individual and institutional investors in Tehran Stock Exchange). Master's thesis. Islamic Azad University of Safadasht
9) Saberi, Hossein. (2016). Investigating the relationship between managers' financial literacy and non-financial performance of state-owned banks in Ilam city, considering the mediating role of moral intelligence. Master's thesis. Bakhtar Ilam Institute of Higher E

ducation.
10) Qalmaq, Karim. Yaqubnejad, Ahmed. Fallah Shams, Faiz. (2015). The effect of financial literacy on the behavioral patterns of Tehran Stock Exchange investors. Financial management perspective. 6(16).
11) Moradi, Javad. Yazidi, Mansoura. (2013). Investigating the effect of investors' financial literacy on the decision to invest in securities. Investment Knowledge, 4(13): 127-150.
12) Moinuddin, Mahmoud. Hirani, Forough. Hamedinia, Hadi. (2012). Examining the financial literacy of government employees and its effect on their financial well-being and financial strategies. Master's thesis of Islamic Azad University, Yazd branch.
13) Yaqub Nejad, Ahmed. Nikumram, Hashem, Moinuddin, Mahmoud. (1390). Presenting a model to measure the financial literacy of Iranian students using the Delphi-Fuzzy method. Financial Engineering and Securities Management, 2(8): 1-49.
14) Allgood, Sam & Walstad, William B, (2011), The Effect of Perceived and Actual Financial Knowledge on Credit Card Behavior, Networks Financial Institute.
15) Amagir, A. Groot, W. Wilschut, A. (2017). A review of financial-literacy education programs for children and adolescents. Citizenship, Social and Economic Education.
16) Bayer, P. J., Bernheim, B. D., & Scholz, J. K. (2018). The Effects of Financial Education in the Workplace: Evidence from a Survey of Employers. Working paper.
17) Blue, L., Grootenboer, P., & Brimble, M. (2014). Financial literacy education in the curriculum: Making the grade or missing the mark? International Review of Economics Education, 16, Part A, 51-62
18) Brabazon, Tony, (2015), Behavioral Finance: A Vew Auririse or A False Down? Coll Sumer School, University of Limerick.
19) Calcagno, R., & Monticone, C. (2015). Financial literacy and the demand for financial advice. Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 363-380.
20) Creswell, J. (2005). Designing and conducting mixed method research. Thousand oak.
21) Cole, Sampson, & Zia (2010), Price or Knowledge? What Drives Demand for Financial Services in Emerging Markets? HBS Working Papers 09-11 forthcoming in the Journal of Finance http://www.csicr.cz/getattachment/af0099dc-1653-4f68-b01a-83a38b71d801.
22) Chang, C.-H., & Lin, S.-J. (2015). The effects of national culture and behavioral pitfalls on investors' decision-making: Herding behavior in international stock markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 37, 380-392.
23) Devlin, J. F. (2003) 'Monitoring the success of policy initiatives to increase consumer understanding of financial services', Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance,11,2151-163.
24) Deacon, S., & Ennew, C. (2001). Consumer Perceptions of Financial Risk. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance. Issues and Practice, 26(3), 389-409.
25) Driver, C., & Dowrick, S. (1997). INVESTMENT INTENTIONS AS AN INDICATOR OF ACTUAL INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING*. Australian Economic Papers, 36(68), 90-105
26) Flores, S. A. M., & Vieira, K. M. (2014). Propensity towards indebtedness: An analysis using behavioral factors. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 3, 1-10.
27) Grohmann, A. (2018). Financial literacy and financial behavior: Evidence from the emerging Asian middle class. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. 48: 129-143.
28) 28)‌ Hastings, J. S., & Tejeda-Ashton, L. (2016). Financial Literacy, Information, and Demand Elasticity: Survey and Experimental Evidence from Mexico. NBER Working Paper.
29) Xiao, Nilton Porto, (2017) "Financial education and financial satisfaction: Financial literacy, behavior, and capability as mediators", International Journal of Bank Marketing, Vol. 35 Issue: 5, pp.805-81
7
30) Klapper, L., A. Lusardi, and G. A. Panos (2013). Financial literacy and its consequences: Evidence from Russia during the financial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 37 (10), 3904–3923.
31) Lerman, R. (2006). Financial Literacy Strategies: Where Do We Go From Here? Networks Financial Institute Policy Brief. 10.
32) Lopus, Jane S, and Lăcătuş, Maria Liana, (2002), "Economic Education in the High Schools: Post-communist Romania and United States", the Journal of Private Enterprise 17.2.
33) Lusardi, A. (2019). Financial literacy and the need for financial education: evidence and implications. Lusardi Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 155:1.
34) Lusardi, A. (2015). Financial literacy: Do people know the ABCs of finance? : Journal of Public Understanding of Science, Vol. 24(3) 260–271.
35) Mohammadpour, Ahmad (2013) Qualitative research method, anti-method 1 (logic and design in qualitative methodology), sociologists' publication. [Persian]
36) Mouna, A. Anis, J. (2017). Financial literacy in Tunisia: Its determinants and its implications on investment behavior. Research in International Business and finance. 39: 568-577.
37) Paiella, M. (2016). Financial literacy and subjective expectations questions: A validation exercise. Research in Economics, 70(2), 360-374.
38) PISA (2012), Financial Literacy Assessment Framework, O

ECD
39) Ramagir, P. Samantho, G. (2017). Financial literacy education for adults. Basic theory and Education, 5(2).
40) Scott Wolla, (2017) "Evaluating the effectiveness of an online module for increasing financial literacy", Social Studies Research and Practice, Vol. 12 Issue: 2, pp. 154-167.
41) Shen, C.-H., Lin, S.-J., Tang, D.-P., & Hsiao, Y.-J. (2016). The relationship between financial disputes and financial literacy. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 36, 46-65.
42) Speziale HS, Streubert HJ, Carpenter DR. Qualitative research in nursing: Advancing the humanistic imperative. 5th ed. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2011.
43) Strauss, Anselm L.; Corbin, Juliet M (1990) "Basics of qualitative research: Grounded theory procedures and techniques" 1st Edition.
44) Strauss, Anselm and Corbin, Juliet (2006); Principles and Methods of Qualitative Research, Basic Theory and Practices, Translation by Biouk Mohammadi, Tehran, Institute of Humanities and Cultural Studies
45) U.S. Department of Treasury. (2008). Financial literacy and education commission. Retrieved June 15, 2008, from www.MyMoney.gov.
46) (46Van Rooij, M., A. Lusardi, and R. Alessie (2018). Financial literacy and stock market participation. Journal of Financial Economics 101 (2), 449-472.
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