بررسی اثرات نا اطمینانی درآمدهای نفتی بر پس‌انداز بخش خصوصی کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره 2010 - 1990
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد مالی
کلید واژه: واژگان کلیدی: پس انداز بخش خصوصی, نا اطمینانی درآمدهای نفتی, نرخ تورم, کشورهای اوپک طبقه بندی JEL : E12, E21, D80, F31, F4,
چکیده مقاله :
در این تحقیق ,تاثیرات نا اطمینانی درآمدهای نفتی به همراه عوامل تجربی و تاثیر گذار دیگر را بر پس انداز بخش خصوصی در12 کشور عضو اوپک با استفاده از داده های مربوط به سالهای 1990 تا 2010 مورد بررسی قرار می دهیم .با توجه به مباحث نظری و تجربی , عواملی مانند درآمدهای نفتی ,نرخ تورم ,نرخ بهره و رابطه مبادله برنرخ پس انداز خصوصی تاثیر گذار می باشند. .نتایج حاصل در این تحقیق دلالت بروجود آثار مثبت نااطمینانی درآمدی بر پس انداز بخش خصوصی در کشورهای منتخب دارد .نرخ تورم و نرخ بهره حقیقی دارای تاثیرات منفی بر نرخ پس انداز حقیقی بوده اند.نرخ مبادله دارای تاثیرات مثبت بر نرخ پس انداز خصوصی می باشد. Abstract This research examines the uncertainty effects of oil revenues with concerning of another determinant and empirical factors on private saving rates in the members of OPEC, during the1990 – 2010 period. We find that private saving rate is sensitive to oil revenue, inflation rate, interest rate and term of trade .the evidence shows that oil revenue uncertainty has positive but inconsiderable impact on private saving in chosen countries. Inflation rate and interest rate have negative effects on private saving rate .Term of trade has positive effect on private saving.
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