طراحی مدل علّی مدیریت مصرف آب با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی FDelphi-FDANP (مورد مطالعه شرکت آب و فاضلاب مازندران)
الموضوعات :habibollah dadashi 1 , ali Sorayaei 2 , seyed ali Nabavi Chashmi 3
1 - Ph.D. Candidatein Industrial Management, College of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Babol Branch, Babol, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Management, College of Humanities, Babol Branch, Islamic Azad University, Babol, Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Management, College of Humanities, Babol Branch, Islamic Azad University, Babol, Iran
الکلمات المفتاحية: دلفی فازی, DANP فازی, مصرف آب, مدیریت تقاضا,
ملخص المقالة :
محدودیت های منابع آب آشامیدنی، خشک و کم آب بودن کشور، افزایش جمعیت و تقاضا، مصرف نادرست آب طی دهه های اخیر و توزیع نامتوازن زمانی و مکانی منابع آب موضوع بسیار حائز اهمیت است. نیاز به تغییر در شیوه های مدیریت تقاضای آب شرب و پیش بینی تقاضاهای جدید از طریق تحلیل عوامل موثر بر مصرف آب را بیشتر کرده است. هدف مقاله حاضر ارایه الگو جهت اولویت بندی راهبردهای مدیریت مصرف آب در بخش خانگی می باشد. اطلاعات از طریق مطالعه و بررسی کتابخانه ای در این حوزه و مصاحبه با خبرگان صنعت آب گردآوری شد. سپس با نمونه گیری گلوله برفی به تشکیل پانل دلفی با رویکردی فازی، عواملی که از جامعیت بیشتری برخوردار بودند شناسایی شد که در نهایت خبرگان بر 7 معیار اصلی اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی، فنی و مهندسی، قانونی و مدیریتی، مکانی و زمانی با 26 زیر معیار تاثیرگذار اتفاق نظر داشتند. برای بررسی درجه اهمیت و ارتباط بین عوامل و اولویت بندی زیرمعیارها با استفاده از تکنیک DANP فازی اقدام شد. نتایج نشان داد که عوامل اصلی فنی و مهندسی با درجه اهمیت (144/0)، زمان (790/0) و فرهنگی(040/0) به عنوان عامل اثرگذار تاثیر مهمی در مصرف آب داشته است و همچنین زیرمعیارهای اثرگذار شامل تنوع بخشی در عرضه، درآمد سرانه، جمعیت، علایق مصرف کننده، تعرفه و قیمت گذاری، مدت حضور در منزل، انگیزه مصرف، سطح زیر بنا، شاغل بودن زنان، فشار شبکه و برنامه های اصلاح الگوی مصرف می باشند.
المصادر:
Ahmadi, F., Nasiriani, K. & Abazari, P. (2008). Delphi technique as a tool in research. Iranian Journal of Medical Education, 175-185. (In Persian).
Agthe, D., & Billings, B. (2002). Water price inQuence on apartment complex water use. Water Resour Pla, Manag, 128, 366-369.
3. Alavi Tabari, S.J. & Yahya Zadehfar, M. (2020). Identification and Ranking of Critical Success Factors for the Implementation of Sustainable Supply Chain Management Using Dematel-ANP Hybrid Approach in the Automobile Industry of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Industrial Management, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Year Fifteenth. (In Persian).
Ansari, H., Bustani, A., Tabatabai, A. & Forouzeh, M. (2017). Survey of Mashhad drinking water demand in the horizon of 1420. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, Fourth Year, No. 1, 125-132. (In Persian).
Ansari, H. & Salehnia, N. (2014). Evaluation of effective parameters on urban drinking water consumption using gamma testing technique. Journal of Water and Wastewater, (1) 2- 13. (In Persian).
Bell, R. David & Griffin, C. Ronald. (2011). Urban Water Demand with Periodic Error Correction. Land Economics, Vol. 87, issue 3, 528-544.
Brounen, D., Kok, N., & Quigley, J. M. (2012). Residential energy use and conservation: Economics and demographics. European Economic Review,56(5),931-945.
Cheng, C.H. & Lin, Y. (2002 (. Evaluating the b est main battle tank using fuzzy decision theory with linguistic criteria evaluation. European journal of operational research, 142(1), 174-186.
Day, D., & Howe, C. (2003). Forecasting peak demand: What do we need to knowe. Water Sci, Technol.,3, 177-184.
Dehghan, H. & Pourreza Karimsara, N. (2016 (. Factors affecting the per capita water consumption of Tehran families. Social and Cultural Strategy Quarterly, Fifth Year, No. 19, 245-268. (In Persian).
De Lourdes Fernandes Neto, M., Naghettini, M., Von Sperling, M., & Libanio, M. (2005). Assessing the relevance of intervening parameters on the per capita water consumption rates in Brazilian urban communities. Water Sci, Technol.,5,8-15.
Dimkić, D. (2020). Temperature Impact on Drinking Water Consumption Jaroslav Černi Water Institute. presented at the 4th EWaS International Conference: Valuing the Water, Carbon, Ecological Footprints of Human Activities, Online, 24–27.
Downward, S.R. & Taylor, R. (2007). An assessment of Spain’s programa AGUA and its implications for sustainable water management in the province of Almería. Environ Manag, 82, 277-289.
Durga Rao, K. (2005). Multicriteria spatial decision analysis for forecasting urban water requirements: A case study of Dehradun city India. Land sc Urban Plan,71, 163-174.
Faizi, A., Sadeh, E., Amini Sabgh, Z. & Ehtesham Arsi, R. (2019). Identifying the components of a resilient economy in the supply chain of Iranian automotive industry. Quarterly Journal of Industrial Management, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Sasandaj Branch, Year 14, Number 49. (In Persian).
Garcia, X., Ribas, A., Llausàs, A. & Saurí, D. (2013). Socio-demographic profiles in suburban developments. Implicationsfor water-related attitudes and behaviors along the Mediterranean coast Applied Geography,41(5) 46-54.
Ghasami, S. (2017). Identification and ranking of factors affecting water consumption in Bandar Abbas. M.Sc. Thesis, Islamic Branch of Bandar Abbas University. (In Persian).
Gómez-Llanos, E., Durán-Barroso, P., & Robina-Ramírez, R. (2020). Analysis of consumer awareness of sustainable water consumption by the water footprint concept. Volume 721, 137743, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137743.
Habibi, A., Izdiar, S. & Sarafrazi, A. (2015). Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making. Written and edited by: Pars Manager, p 32. (In Persian)
Khalfi, A. (2015). A Study of the Pattern of Household Water Consumer Behavior with Consumer Segmentation Approach. M.Sc. Thesis in Business Management, Ilam Universit. (In Persian).
Khodadad, M. & Nankhaei, M. (2015). Investigating the effective factors of water consumption pattern by the citizens of Gonbad Kavous. the first national conference on geography and planning, architecture and modern urban planning. (In Persian).
Koo, J., Yu, M., Kim, S., Shim, S., & Koizumi, A. (2005). Estimating regional water demand in seoul south Korea. using principal component and cluster analysis. Water Sci. Technol., 5, 1-7.
Kostas, B., & Chrysostomos, S. (2006). Estimating urban residential water demand determinants and forcasting water demand for athens metropolitan area 2000-2010. Panteion University, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 1, 47-59.
Largo, F.M., Arlene B. I., & Cristina C. D. (1998). Understanding household water demand for metro cebu. Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
Lee, M., Han, H. & Willson, G. (2011). The role of expected outcomes in the formation of behavioral intentions in the green-hotel industry. Journal of Travel&Tourism Marketing, 28(8) ,840-855.
Lu, M.-T., Lin, S.-W., & Tzeng, G.-H. (2013). Improving RFID adoption in Taiwan’s healthcare industry based on a DEMATEL technique with a hybrid MCDM model. Decision Support Systems, 56, 259–269.
Martinez Espineira, R. (2000). Residential water demand in the Northwest of Spain, Environment Department. University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK.
Martínez-Noya, A. and García-Canal, E. (2011). Technological capabilities and the decision to outsource/outsource offshore R&D services. International Business Review, 20(3), pp.264-277.
Mirzaei Khalilabadi, H. (2012). The position of the water sector in the economy of Kerman province. Agricultural Economics Research, Volume 4, Number 2, 82-69. (In Persian).
Noorderhaben, N. (1995). Strategic decision making, Addison-Wesley, UK. Overby, E., Bharadwaj, A. & Sambamurthy, V. (2006). Enterprise agility and the enabling role of information technology, European Journal of Information Systems, 15(2): 120- 131.
Rajabi Nahoji, M, Qajavand, S & Fartoukzadeh, H. (2013). Modeling the dynamics of the water system in Tehran with the aim of effective management, 2015, Volume 26, Number 2, from pages 26 to 32. (In Persian).
Rathnayaka, K., Maheepala, S., Nawarathna, B., George, B., Malano, H. & Arora, M. (2014). "Factors affecting the variability of household water use in Melbourne, Australia, Resources", Conservation and Recycling,92(14) 85-94.
Renzetti, Steven. (2002). The economics of water demands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, dol: 10.1007/978-1-4615-0865-6.
Rondinel-Oviedo, Daniel R, Sarmiento-Pastor, Jaime M. (2020). Water: consumption, usage patterns, and residential infrastructure A comparative analysis of three regions in the Lima metropolitan area, Water International, 45:7-8, 824-846, DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2020.1830360
. Russell, Sally V, Knoeri, Christof. (2020). Exploring the psychosocial and behavioural determinants of household water conservation and intention, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 36:6, 940-955, DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2019.1638230.
Salehi, M, Hashemi, H, Esfandiarpour Borujeni, Motaghan, H.R, (2011), Refining Soil Organic Matter Determination by Loss-on-Ignition, 21(4): 473–482, 2011.
Salimi, A., Noori, A., Bonakdari, H. & Sharifi, E. (2020). Exploring the Role of Advertising Types onImproving the Water Consumption Behavior: An Application of Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy VIKOR Method. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1232; https://doi:10.3390/su12031232. (in persian).
Shafiei, M. (2012). Identification and ranking of factors affecting water consumption using Dematel technique and fuzzy topsis. Master Thesis, Yazd University Jihad Higher Education Institute. (In Persian)
Suo, C., Yang, Y., Solvang, W. (2014). Analysis of influence factors of rural residence transformation on residential energy consumption. Modern Management, 4, 493–515.
Tabli, H. Khajavi, H. (2009). The Relationship between Home Water Consumption and Income and Education Variables, Journal of Applied Sociology, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 200-185. (in Persian)
Tahamipour, M. (2016). Economic value, an approach to managing water demand in industrial use. Journal of Water and Wastewater, Volume 28, pp. 83-74. (In Persian).
Van Vliet, B. Chappells, H. & E, Shove. (2005). Infrastructures of consumption, environmental innovation in the utility industries, Earthscan, London, Department of Philsophy and Religion, pp1-,130.
Wardak, H., & Abed, S. (2019). Analysis of Factors Affecting Water Consumption in Jeddah City. Conference: 2019 Industrial & Systems Engineering Conference (ISEC), DOI: 10.1109/IASEC.2019.8686495. 19-20 Jan. 2019.
Whitcomb, J.B. (2005). Florida water rates evaluation of single-family homes, prepared for and Funded by Southwest Florida Water Management District, St. Johns River Water Management District.
Willis Rachelle M. Stewart Rodney A. & P. Giurco Damien. (2013). End use water consumption in households: impact of socio-demographic factors and efficient devices, Journal of Cleaner Production, 60 PP107-115, 2013.
World Economic Forum. (2017). was held between 17th and 20thJanuary, in Davos, Switzerland.
WHO (World Health Organization). (2011). Guidelines for drinking-water quality. 4th ed. Geneva: World Health Organization; PP 164–8.
Yazdan Dad, Hossein and Bibi Zahra Mazloum. (2009). A Study of Factors Affecting Water Consumption Pattern and Its Optimization in the Home Sector (Case Study: Mashhad), Third National Conference on Water and Wastewater with Exploitation Approach, Tehran, Water Industry University and Electricity. (In Persian)
Younesloo, Sadegh. (2013). Water Consumption Optimization, Tehran, Pajhwok Publishing. (In Persian)
Yousefi, Ali, Khalilian, Sadegh, Balali, Hamid. (2011). The importance of water resources strategies in the Iranian economy using the model of general equilibrium, Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development (Agricultural Science), Volume 25, Number 1, pp. 120-109. (In Persian)
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Ahmadi, F., Nasiriani, K. & Abazari, P. (2008). Delphi technique as a tool in research. Iranian Journal of Medical Education, 175-185. (In Persian).
Agthe, D., & Billings, B. (2002). Water price inQuence on apartment complex water use. Water Resour Pla, Manag, 128, 366-369.
3. Alavi Tabari, S.J. & Yahya Zadehfar, M. (2020). Identification and Ranking of Critical Success Factors for the Implementation of Sustainable Supply Chain Management Using Dematel-ANP Hybrid Approach in the Automobile Industry of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Industrial Management, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Year Fifteenth. (In Persian).
Ansari, H., Bustani, A., Tabatabai, A. & Forouzeh, M. (2017). Survey of Mashhad drinking water demand in the horizon of 1420. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, Fourth Year, No. 1, 125-132. (In Persian).
Ansari, H. & Salehnia, N. (2014). Evaluation of effective parameters on urban drinking water consumption using gamma testing technique. Journal of Water and Wastewater, (1) 2- 13. (In Persian).
Bell, R. David & Griffin, C. Ronald. (2011). Urban Water Demand with Periodic Error Correction. Land Economics, Vol. 87, issue 3, 528-544.
Brounen, D., Kok, N., & Quigley, J. M. (2012). Residential energy use and conservation: Economics and demographics. European Economic Review,56(5),931-945.
Cheng, C.H. & Lin, Y. (2002 (. Evaluating the b est main battle tank using fuzzy decision theory with linguistic criteria evaluation. European journal of operational research, 142(1), 174-186.
Day, D., & Howe, C. (2003). Forecasting peak demand: What do we need to knowe. Water Sci, Technol.,3, 177-184.
Dehghan, H. & Pourreza Karimsara, N. (2016 (. Factors affecting the per capita water consumption of Tehran families. Social and Cultural Strategy Quarterly, Fifth Year, No. 19, 245-268. (In Persian).
De Lourdes Fernandes Neto, M., Naghettini, M., Von Sperling, M., & Libanio, M. (2005). Assessing the relevance of intervening parameters on the per capita water consumption rates in Brazilian urban communities. Water Sci, Technol.,5,8-15.
Dimkić, D. (2020). Temperature Impact on Drinking Water Consumption Jaroslav Černi Water Institute. presented at the 4th EWaS International Conference: Valuing the Water, Carbon, Ecological Footprints of Human Activities, Online, 24–27.
Downward, S.R. & Taylor, R. (2007). An assessment of Spain’s programa AGUA and its implications for sustainable water management in the province of Almería. Environ Manag, 82, 277-289.
Durga Rao, K. (2005). Multicriteria spatial decision analysis for forecasting urban water requirements: A case study of Dehradun city India. Land sc Urban Plan,71, 163-174.
Faizi, A., Sadeh, E., Amini Sabgh, Z. & Ehtesham Arsi, R. (2019). Identifying the components of a resilient economy in the supply chain of Iranian automotive industry. Quarterly Journal of Industrial Management, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Sasandaj Branch, Year 14, Number 49. (In Persian).
Garcia, X., Ribas, A., Llausàs, A. & Saurí, D. (2013). Socio-demographic profiles in suburban developments. Implicationsfor water-related attitudes and behaviors along the Mediterranean coast Applied Geography,41(5) 46-54.
Ghasami, S. (2017). Identification and ranking of factors affecting water consumption in Bandar Abbas. M.Sc. Thesis, Islamic Branch of Bandar Abbas University. (In Persian).
Gómez-Llanos, E., Durán-Barroso, P., & Robina-Ramírez, R. (2020). Analysis of consumer awareness of sustainable water consumption by the water footprint concept. Volume 721, 137743, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137743.
Habibi, A., Izdiar, S. & Sarafrazi, A. (2015). Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making. Written and edited by: Pars Manager, p 32. (In Persian)
Khalfi, A. (2015). A Study of the Pattern of Household Water Consumer Behavior with Consumer Segmentation Approach. M.Sc. Thesis in Business Management, Ilam Universit. (In Persian).
Khodadad, M. & Nankhaei, M. (2015). Investigating the effective factors of water consumption pattern by the citizens of Gonbad Kavous. the first national conference on geography and planning, architecture and modern urban planning. (In Persian).
Koo, J., Yu, M., Kim, S., Shim, S., & Koizumi, A. (2005). Estimating regional water demand in seoul south Korea. using principal component and cluster analysis. Water Sci. Technol., 5, 1-7.
Kostas, B., & Chrysostomos, S. (2006). Estimating urban residential water demand determinants and forcasting water demand for athens metropolitan area 2000-2010. Panteion University, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 1, 47-59.
Largo, F.M., Arlene B. I., & Cristina C. D. (1998). Understanding household water demand for metro cebu. Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
Lee, M., Han, H. & Willson, G. (2011). The role of expected outcomes in the formation of behavioral intentions in the green-hotel industry. Journal of Travel&Tourism Marketing, 28(8) ,840-855.
Lu, M.-T., Lin, S.-W., & Tzeng, G.-H. (2013). Improving RFID adoption in Taiwan’s healthcare industry based on a DEMATEL technique with a hybrid MCDM model. Decision Support Systems, 56, 259–269.
Martinez Espineira, R. (2000). Residential water demand in the Northwest of Spain, Environment Department. University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK.
Martínez-Noya, A. and García-Canal, E. (2011). Technological capabilities and the decision to outsource/outsource offshore R&D services. International Business Review, 20(3), pp.264-277.
Mirzaei Khalilabadi, H. (2012). The position of the water sector in the economy of Kerman province. Agricultural Economics Research, Volume 4, Number 2, 82-69. (In Persian).
Noorderhaben, N. (1995). Strategic decision making, Addison-Wesley, UK. Overby, E., Bharadwaj, A. & Sambamurthy, V. (2006). Enterprise agility and the enabling role of information technology, European Journal of Information Systems, 15(2): 120- 131.
Rajabi Nahoji, M, Qajavand, S & Fartoukzadeh, H. (2013). Modeling the dynamics of the water system in Tehran with the aim of effective management, 2015, Volume 26, Number 2, from pages 26 to 32. (In Persian).
Rathnayaka, K., Maheepala, S., Nawarathna, B., George, B., Malano, H. & Arora, M. (2014). "Factors affecting the variability of household water use in Melbourne, Australia, Resources", Conservation and Recycling,92(14) 85-94.
Renzetti, Steven. (2002). The economics of water demands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, dol: 10.1007/978-1-4615-0865-6.
Rondinel-Oviedo, Daniel R, Sarmiento-Pastor, Jaime M. (2020). Water: consumption, usage patterns, and residential infrastructure A comparative analysis of three regions in the Lima metropolitan area, Water International, 45:7-8, 824-846, DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2020.1830360
. Russell, Sally V, Knoeri, Christof. (2020). Exploring the psychosocial and behavioural determinants of household water conservation and intention, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 36:6, 940-955, DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2019.1638230.
Salehi, M, Hashemi, H, Esfandiarpour Borujeni, Motaghan, H.R, (2011), Refining Soil Organic Matter Determination by Loss-on-Ignition, 21(4): 473–482, 2011.
Salimi, A., Noori, A., Bonakdari, H. & Sharifi, E. (2020). Exploring the Role of Advertising Types onImproving the Water Consumption Behavior: An Application of Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy VIKOR Method. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1232; https://doi:10.3390/su12031232. (in persian).
Shafiei, M. (2012). Identification and ranking of factors affecting water consumption using Dematel technique and fuzzy topsis. Master Thesis, Yazd University Jihad Higher Education Institute. (In Persian)
Suo, C., Yang, Y., Solvang, W. (2014). Analysis of influence factors of rural residence transformation on residential energy consumption. Modern Management, 4, 493–515.
Tabli, H. Khajavi, H. (2009). The Relationship between Home Water Consumption and Income and Education Variables, Journal of Applied Sociology, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 200-185. (in Persian)
Tahamipour, M. (2016). Economic value, an approach to managing water demand in industrial use. Journal of Water and Wastewater, Volume 28, pp. 83-74. (In Persian).
Van Vliet, B. Chappells, H. & E, Shove. (2005). Infrastructures of consumption, environmental innovation in the utility industries, Earthscan, London, Department of Philsophy and Religion, pp1-,130.
Wardak, H., & Abed, S. (2019). Analysis of Factors Affecting Water Consumption in Jeddah City. Conference: 2019 Industrial & Systems Engineering Conference (ISEC), DOI: 10.1109/IASEC.2019.8686495. 19-20 Jan. 2019.
Whitcomb, J.B. (2005). Florida water rates evaluation of single-family homes, prepared for and Funded by Southwest Florida Water Management District, St. Johns River Water Management District.
Willis Rachelle M. Stewart Rodney A. & P. Giurco Damien. (2013). End use water consumption in households: impact of socio-demographic factors and efficient devices, Journal of Cleaner Production, 60 PP107-115, 2013.
World Economic Forum. (2017). was held between 17th and 20thJanuary, in Davos, Switzerland.
WHO (World Health Organization). (2011). Guidelines for drinking-water quality. 4th ed. Geneva: World Health Organization; PP 164–8.
Yazdan Dad, Hossein and Bibi Zahra Mazloum. (2009). A Study of Factors Affecting Water Consumption Pattern and Its Optimization in the Home Sector (Case Study: Mashhad), Third National Conference on Water and Wastewater with Exploitation Approach, Tehran, Water Industry University and Electricity. (In Persian)
Younesloo, Sadegh. (2013). Water Consumption Optimization, Tehran, Pajhwok Publishing. (In Persian)
Yousefi, Ali, Khalilian, Sadegh, Balali, Hamid. (2011). The importance of water resources strategies in the Iranian economy using the model of general equilibrium, Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development (Agricultural Science), Volume 25, Number 1, pp. 120-109. (In Persian)
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