تفکیک اثرات مقیاس و تکنیکی توسعه مالی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر: شواهدی از کشورهای خاورمیانه

حسین الرکابی ¹ ( دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی گرایش توسعه اقتصادی دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، [e-mail] )
سید کمال صادقی ² ( استاد اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، [e-mail] )
پرویز محمدزاده ³ ( استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، [e-mail] )

تاريخ الإرسال : 20 الإثنين , رجب, 1446 تاريخ التأكيد : 05 الأربعاء , رمضان, 1446

الکلمات المفتاحية: انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر, توسعه مالی, FDI, کیفیت نهادی, مدل CS-ARDL.,

ملخص المقالة :

انرژی یکی از ارکان اصلی تولید و رشد اقتصادی است، اما وابستگی شدید به سوخت‌های فسیلی در کشورهای خاورمیانه، علی‌رغم پتانسیل بالای انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، چالش‌های زیست‌محیطی و سلامت انسانی را تشدید کرده است. توسعه مالی و FDI  می‌توانند از طریق اثر مقیاس و اثر تکنیکی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر تأثیرگذار باشند. اثر مقیاس با افزایش تولید و تقاضای انرژی، اغلب موجب افزایش انتشار آلاینده‌ها می‌شود، در حالی که اثر تکنیکی از طریق انتقال فناوری و بهبود بهره‌وری، پایداری زیست‌محیطی را ارتقا می‌بخشد. به دلیل تضاد بالقوه بین این دو اثر و تفاوت در اثرگذاری آن‌ها در کشورهای مختلف، تفکیک این اثرات برای طراحی سیاست‌های اثربخش ضروری است.

این مطالعه با بهره‌گیری از مدل CS-ARDL و داده‌های پانل طی سال‌های 2000 تا 2021، اثرات توسعه مالی و FDI بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه را تحلیل می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که در مراحل اولیه توسعه مالی و FDI، تخصیص ناکارآمد منابع و انتقال صنایع آلاینده، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر را کاهش می‌دهد. با این حال، در سطوح پیشرفته‌تر، هدایت منابع به سمت پروژه‌های پایدار و استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین، منجر به افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر می‌شود.

علاوه بر این، کیفیت نهادی و مصرف انرژی فسیلی اثر مثبتی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر دارند، اما وابستگی به فناوری‌های سنتی تأثیری منفی برجای می‌گذارد. این تحقیق بر ضرورت تقویت زیرساخت‌های مالی، جذب هدفمند سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، بهبود کیفیت حکمرانی و حذف تدریجی یارانه‌های انرژی فسیلی تأکید دارد. یافته‌های پژوهش مسیری روشن برای کاهش وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی و گذار به انرژی‌های پایدار در کشورهای خاورمیانه ارائه می‌دهد.

المصادر:

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