عوامل مؤثر در بروز بحران امنیتی در شهرهای ایران (کاربست نظریه محرومیت نسبی در تحلیل اعتراضات آبان 1398)

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

محمدرضا قائدی ¹ (استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.)
حسین مذنب ² (دانشجوی دکتری گروه روابط بین‌الملل، واحد بین الملل کیش، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، جزیره کیش، ایران.)
محمدرضا امانی ³ (کارشناس ارشد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.)

تاريخ الإرسال : 07 الثلاثاء , صفر, 1443 تاريخ التأكيد : 03 السبت , ربيع الأول, 1443 تاريخ الإصدار : 17 الإثنين , ربيع الثاني, 1443

الکلمات المفتاحية: محرومیت نسبی, بحران امنیتی, اعتراض, شورش, آبان‌ 1398,

ملخص المقالة :

به‌ دنبال افزایش قیمت بنزین در آبان ماه 1398، اعتراض‌هایی در سطح شهرهای ایران رخ داد. این اعتراض‌ها که به‌صورت مسالمت‌آمیز آغاز و در انتها به شورش انجامید، به بحرانی امنیتی برای حاکمیت تبدیل شد که با دامنه، شدت و گستردگی بسیاری همراه بود. این در حالی بود که طی دو سال قبل از آن (دی‌ 1396 و مرداد 1397) اعتراض‌هایی با دامنۀ محدودتر انجام‌ شده بود. در این حادثه تعدادی از مردم، نیروهای نظامی و امنیتی کشته و مجروح شدند و به زیرساخت‌های کشور علی‌الخصوص در سطح جامعۀ شهری آسیب‌ها و خسارت‌های درخور توجهی وارد شد؛ بنابراین به‌منظور جلوگیری از وقوع مجدد چنین مسئله‌ای، این پژوهش به‌دنبال یافتن پاسخ این سؤال است: چه عواملی منجر به بروز این بحران امنیتی در شهرهای ایران شده است؟ برای یافتن پاسخ با روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی و با گردآوری اسناد و فیش‌برداری مرتبط، نظریۀ مرتبط بررسی شد و باتوجه ‌به آن وقایع مرتبط از سال 139۶ تا 139۸ تحلیل گردید. در پاسخ، فرضیۀ طرح‌شده با کاربست نظریۀ محرومیت نسبی این است که کاهش توانایی‌های مردم منجر به بروز اعتراض، شورش و در نهایت تبدیل به یک بحران امنیتی می‌شود. نتیجه آنکه مردم طی دو سال زندگی خود در سال‌های 139۶ تا 139۸ در وضعیت تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، کاهش رشد اقتصادی، افزایش نرخ خوراکی‌ها، افزایش نرخ دلار، سکه و کاهش درآمد سرانه، کاهش توانایی‌هایشان آشکار شد و با آغاز ناگهانی افزایش قیمت بنزین این حس ایجاد شد که فاصلۀ میان انتظارات و توانایی‌ها بسیار زیاد شده است. احساس محرومیت نسبی ایجادشده در مردم، منجر به اعتراض‌هایی شد که در نهایت به شورش و بحران امنیتی تبدیل گشت.

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