عوامل مؤثر در بروز بحران امنیتی در شهرهای ایران (کاربست نظریه محرومیت نسبی در تحلیل اعتراضات آبان 1398)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

محمدرضا قائدی ¹ (استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.)
حسین مذنب ² (دانشجوی دکتری گروه روابط بین‌الملل، واحد بین الملل کیش، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، جزیره کیش، ایران.)
محمدرضا امانی ³ (کارشناس ارشد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/06/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/17 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/09/01

کلید واژه: محرومیت نسبی, بحران امنیتی, اعتراض, شورش, آبان‌ 1398,

چکیده مقاله :

به‌ دنبال افزایش قیمت بنزین در آبان ماه 1398، اعتراض‌هایی در سطح شهرهای ایران رخ داد. این اعتراض‌ها که به‌صورت مسالمت‌آمیز آغاز و در انتها به شورش انجامید، به بحرانی امنیتی برای حاکمیت تبدیل شد که با دامنه، شدت و گستردگی بسیاری همراه بود. این در حالی بود که طی دو سال قبل از آن (دی‌ 1396 و مرداد 1397) اعتراض‌هایی با دامنۀ محدودتر انجام‌ شده بود. در این حادثه تعدادی از مردم، نیروهای نظامی و امنیتی کشته و مجروح شدند و به زیرساخت‌های کشور علی‌الخصوص در سطح جامعۀ شهری آسیب‌ها و خسارت‌های درخور توجهی وارد شد؛ بنابراین به‌منظور جلوگیری از وقوع مجدد چنین مسئله‌ای، این پژوهش به‌دنبال یافتن پاسخ این سؤال است: چه عواملی منجر به بروز این بحران امنیتی در شهرهای ایران شده است؟ برای یافتن پاسخ با روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی و با گردآوری اسناد و فیش‌برداری مرتبط، نظریۀ مرتبط بررسی شد و باتوجه ‌به آن وقایع مرتبط از سال 139۶ تا 139۸ تحلیل گردید. در پاسخ، فرضیۀ طرح‌شده با کاربست نظریۀ محرومیت نسبی این است که کاهش توانایی‌های مردم منجر به بروز اعتراض، شورش و در نهایت تبدیل به یک بحران امنیتی می‌شود. نتیجه آنکه مردم طی دو سال زندگی خود در سال‌های 139۶ تا 139۸ در وضعیت تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، کاهش رشد اقتصادی، افزایش نرخ خوراکی‌ها، افزایش نرخ دلار، سکه و کاهش درآمد سرانه، کاهش توانایی‌هایشان آشکار شد و با آغاز ناگهانی افزایش قیمت بنزین این حس ایجاد شد که فاصلۀ میان انتظارات و توانایی‌ها بسیار زیاد شده است. احساس محرومیت نسبی ایجادشده در مردم، منجر به اعتراض‌هایی شد که در نهایت به شورش و بحران امنیتی تبدیل گشت.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Following the increase in gasoline prices in November 2019, protests took place in Iranian cities. The protests, which began peacefully and eventually led to riots, turned into a security crisis for the regime that was widespread, intense, and widespread. This was despite the fact that during the two years before that (December 2017 and August 2018), protests with a more limited scope had taken place. Since a number of people, military and security forces were killed and wounded in this incident and significant damage was done to the country's infrastructure, especially in the urban community, in order to prevent such a recurrence, this study seeks to find the answer to this question. What are the factors that led to this security crisis in Iranian cities? To find the answer by descriptive-analytical method and by collecting related documents and filing, the relevant theory was examined and according to it, the related events from 2017-2018 were examined. In response, the hypothesis put forward by applying the theory of relative deprivation was that a decline in people's abilities would lead to protests, riots, and ultimately to a security crisis. The result is that during the two years of their lives in the years 2017-2019 in the conditions of international sanctions, slowing economic growth, rising food prices, rising dollar, coins and declining per capita income, their abilities became apparent and with the sudden onset of gasoline prices this feeling was created. The gap between expectations and capabilities widened, and the sense of relative deprivation created in the people led to protests that eventually turned into riots and security crises.

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