مدلسازی هیدرولوژی- اقتصادی جامع کشاورزی و منابع آب استان تهران جهت ارزیابی آثار بالقوه گرمایش جهانی

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

ابوذر پرهیزکاری ¹ (دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)
غلامرضا یاوری ² (دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)
ابوالفضل محمودی ³ (دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)
غلامرضا بخشی خانیکی ⁴ (استاد گروه علوم کشاورزی (بیوتکنولوژی)، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)

تاريخ الإرسال : 23 الخميس , جمادى الأولى, 1442 تاريخ التأكيد : 19 الأحد , محرم, 1445 تاريخ الإصدار : 05 الأحد , محرم, 1445

الکلمات المفتاحية: تهران, توسعه کشاورزی, گرمایش جهانی, الگوی هیدرواقتصادی, تولیدات زراعی,

ملخص المقالة :

در مطالعه حاضر یکپارچه‌سازی سیستم مدل‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی- اقتصادی جامع کشاورزی و منابع آب در استان تهران جهت ارزیابی آثار بالقوه گرمایش جهانی مورد کنکاش و بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از مدل‌های گردش عمومی (GCM) میزان اثرات گازهای گلخانه‌ای برمیانگین متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش تحت سناریوهای انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 بررسی شد. این کار به کمک سامانه دیتایی GCM/RCM و مدل ریزمقیاس LARS-WG صورت گرفت. در ادامه، با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی و تحلیل رگرسیون اثرات متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش برمیانگین عملکرد محصولات منتخب زراعی ارزیابی شد. جهت بررسی تغییرات عملکرد محصولات بر الگوهای زراعی از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی (PMP) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان دادکه رفتار متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش طی دوره‌های آتی در سطح حوضه‌های مطالعاتی استان تهران نسبت به دوره پایه به ترتیب افزایشی (26/0 تا 75/3 درجه سانتی‌گراد) و کاهشی (78/0 تا 1/41 میلی‌متر) خواهد بود.

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