سنجش و الویت بندی تاب آوری مناطق روستایی در برابر زلزله مورد مطالعه: بخش ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی شهرستان نمین
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ایوحید طالعی حور 1 , محمد ظاهری 2 , سهیلا باختر 3 , اشکان شفیعی 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
3 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: پایداری, مخاطرات طبیعی, زلزله, تابآوری, تابآوری روستایی,
ملخص المقالة :
تابآوری روستایی رویکردی اجتماع محوربرای ارتقای آمادگی اجتماعات روستایی دربرابر ناپایداریهای ناشی ازمخاطرات است. کاهش آسیبپذیری روستائیان از طریق افزایش سطح تابآوری و ارتقای انعطافپذیری در برابر پیامدهای طبیعی، یکی از ویژگی-های مدیریت، برنامهریزی و توسعه باشد که از طریق شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تقویت تابآوری امکانپذیر است. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف کاربدی و بر اساس ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش 24 روستای دارای سکنه دهستان ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی با جمعیت 18249 نفر است. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران380 نفر برآورد گردید که پراکندگی تعداد نمونهها در روستاها متناسب با جمعیت آنها و شیوه انتخاب نمونه در هر روستا به صورت تصادفی سیستماتیک بوده است. برای تنظیم پرسشنامه از پنج شاخص تابآوری(اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی- محیطی، نهادی و روانی) در قالب 45 گویه بهره گرفته شد. میزان پایایی پرسشنامه بر اساس آلفای کرونباخ 91/0 ارزیابی گردید. برای وزندهی شاخصها از تکنیک آنتروپی شانون استفاده گردید، جهت سطحبندی روستاها از تکنیکهای تصمیمگیری topsis، vikor و saw و برای ادغام نتایج نیز از تکنیک کپلند استفاده گردید. یافتههای پژوهش نشان میدهد معیار کمک هزینههای دولتی(027/0) مهمترین معیار و وابستگی به مکان(016/0) کم اهمیتترین معیار است. نتایج سطحبندی روستاها بیانگر این است هشت روستا در سطح خوب، 10 روستا در سطح متوسط و شش روستا نیز در سطح ضعیف قرار دارند. نتایج آزمون t تک نمونهای با میانگین 93/2 نشان داد که تاب-آوری روستاهای دهستان ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی پایینتر از حد متوسط است. میتوان دریافت تابآوری در برابر زلزله در وضعیت مناسبی قرار ندارد و زلزله خطری جدی است که مناطق روستایی را تهدید میکند
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