بررسی تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در گروه کشورهای درآمد متوسط (رویکرد پانل VAR)
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت
اشکان رحیم زاده
1
(استادیار ، دانشکده علوم انسانی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی زنجان)
کلید واژه: پانل VAR, واردات ICT, پیچیدگی اقتصادی,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف اصلی تحقیق بررسی تأثیر ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در گروه کشورهای با درآمد متوسط می‌باشد. کشورهای منتخب این بررسی شامل ایران، ترکیه، آذربایجان، مالزی، مکزیک، روسیه، قزاقستان، بلغارستان و بلاروس است. بازه زمانی مورد‌مطالعه در این تحقیق 2021-2014 می‌باشد. متغیرهای پژوهش مطابق معیار لوین، لین و چو در سطح ایستا یا مانا هستند. بر اساس معیار شوارتز بيزین (SBC) وقفه بهینه یک می‌باشد. نتایج برآورد مدل بر اساس آزمون خود رگرسیون برداری (VAR) نشان می‌دهد پیچیدگی اقتصادی در کوتاه‌مدت تحت تأثیر مثبت از خودش با یک وقفه و واردات فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات (در سطح خطای 8 درصد) می‌باشد. نتایج بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد با افزایش یک‌درصدی کاربران اینترنت و واردات ICT، میزان پیچیدگی اقتصادی به ترتیب به میزان 258/0 و 271/0 درصد افزایش می¬یابد. در تحلیل عکس‌العمل اثر شوک واردات کالاهای ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در همه سال‌ها مثبت می‌باشد. اثر شوک کاربران اینترنت در همه سال‌ها روند مثبت و معنی‌دار مشاهده نمی‌شود.
The main goal of the research is to investigate the impact of ICT on economic complexity in the group of middle-income countries. The selected countries of this survey include Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Belarus. The time frame studied in this research is 2014-2021. According to the criteria of Levin, Lin and Chu, the variables of the research are at the static level. According to the Schwartz Bayesian criterion (SBC), the optimal lag is one. The results of the estimation of the model based on the vector autoregression test (VAR) show that economic complexity in the short term is positively affected by itself with a lag and the import of information and communication technology (at an error level of 8%). The results show that with a one percent increase in Internet users and ICT imports, the level of economic complexity increases by 0.258 and 0.271 percent, respectively. In the reaction analysis, the impact of the ICT goods import shock on the economic complexity is positive in all years. The shock effect of internet users does not show a positive and significant trend in all years.
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