بازشناسی پیشران¬های موثر بر امنیت بوم¬شناختی گردشگری با توجه به ظرفیت¬های رودخانه کارون
محورهای موضوعی : جغرافیا وگردشگری
احمد راه دار
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دکتر منوچهر جوانمردی
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1 - کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.
کلید واژه: بازشناسی, , پیشران, امنیت بوم شناختی, گردشگری, رودخانه کارون,
چکیده مقاله :
رودخانه کارون یک منطقه کلیدی برای حفاظت از محیط زیست و توسعه اقتصادی با کیفیت بالا در کلانشهر اهواز است. با این حال، با ادامه توسعه شهرنشینی و تحول صنعتی، گردشگری تهدیدی جدی برای محیط و زیست است. براساس هدف مذکور، پژوهش حاضر درصدد بازشناسی پیشران¬های موثر بر امنیت بوم¬شناختی گردشگری با توجه به ظرفیت¬های رودخانه کارون است. روش تحقیق براساس روش¬های جدید آینده پژوهی، تبیینی می¬باشد. عوامل توسط 30 کارشناس و متخصص برنامه¬ریزی شهری با به کارگیری پویش محیطی، تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ ساختاری مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و از نرم افزار تخصصی آینده پژوهی MICMAC استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که وضعیت پراکندگی متغیرهای موثر نشان از پایداری سیستم است. از میان 31 عامل بررسی شده 10 عامل اصلی به عنوان عوامل کلیدی موثر بر امنیت بوم¬شناختی گردشگری انتخاب شده¬اند که همه عوامل در هر دو روش مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تکرار شده¬اند. یافته¬ها نشان داد متغیرهای مربوط به ابعاد مقیاس و سود گردشگری به عنوان پیشران¬های صنعت گردشگری بر اهداف حفاظت از محیط زیست و منابع محیطی ترجیح داده شده است. متغیرهایی چون تعداد کارکنان صنعت گردشگری، درآمد حاصل از گردشگران بین المللی و داخلی، تعداد هتل¬های ستاره¬دار، نسبت هزینه¬های آموزشی به مالیه عمومی، تعداد گردشگران بین المللی و داخلی، کل خرده فروشی هتل¬ها و خدمات پذیرایی و نرخ بیکاری و شهرنشینی در اولویت قرار دارد. این تحقیق نشان داد که ظرفیت¬های گردشگری در کلانشهر اهواز به ویژه رودخانه کارون به دلیل سوء مدیریت¬ها رها شده و نتایج حاکی از آن است که برنامه-ریزی گردشگری مورد توجه قرار نگرفته و بهره¬مندی از ابزارهای آینده¬نگاری و پیش¬بینی می¬تواند دستیابی به اهداف گردشگری را تسهیل بخشد.
Karun river is a key region for environmental protection and high-quality economic development in ahvaz metropolis. However, tourism is a serious threat to the environment due to the continued development of urbanization and industrial transformation. Hence, the present study aims to identify the driving factors affecting the ecological security of tourism considering the capacities of the karun river. The method of this study is explanatory based on the new methods of future research. The factors were evaluated by 30 experts and specialists in urban planning using environmental scanning, and interaction/structural effects analysis. MICMAC future research specialized software was used in this regard. The results revealed that the dispersion state of the effective variables indicates the sustainability of the system. Based on 31 investigated factors, 10 primary factors were selected as key factors affecting the ecological security of tourism. All factors were repeated in both direct and indirect methods. The results indicated that the variables related to the dimensions of the scale and profit of tourism as drivers of the tourism industry have been preferred over the objectives of protecting the environment and environmental resources. Variables such as the number of employees in the tourism industry, the income from international and domestic tourists, the number of star hotels, the ratio of educational expenses to public finances, the number of international and domestic tourists, the total retail sales of hotels, catering services, and unemployment rate and urbanization are prioritized. This study revealed that the tourism capacities in the ahvaz metropolis, especially the karun river, have been abandoned due to mismanagement. Also, the results suggest that tourism planning has not been considered and the use of foresight and forecasting tools can facilitate the achievement of tourism goals.
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