شناسایی ابعاد و مولفه‌های تاب‌آوری شهری در برابر سیل با استفاده از روش تحلیل مضمون و ارزیابی کمی آن به روش مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری. مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر کرج
محورهای موضوعی : دو فصل‌نامه فضای زیست
محمد صابر اسلاملو
1
(دانشجوی دکتری رشته شهرسازی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی قزوین ، قزوین، ایران)
منوچهر طبیبیان
2
(استاد ، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده شهرسازی پردیس هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. نویسنده مسئول.)
مهتا میرمقتدایی
3
(استادیار، معماری و شهرسازی، مرکز تحقیقات راه، مسکن و شهرسازی، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: تاب‌آوری شهری, سیل, کلانشهرکرج, روش تحلیل مضمون, مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری.,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه موضوع تاب‌آوری شهری به‌عنوان یکی از نظریه‌های مطرح در برنامه‌ریزی‌شهری، به‌منظور پرنمودن فضای خالی میان نظریه‌پردازی و عمل‌گرایی بسیار با اهمیت جلوه می‌نماید. در همین راستا هدف از انجام این پژوهش، شناسایی ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های تاب‌آوری‌شهری در برابر سیل در شهر کرج با روش تحلیل مضمون و ارزیابی کمی آن به روش مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری می‌باشد. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از نوع آمیخته و در بخش کیفی مبتنی بر روش تحلیل مضمون بود که بر روی داده‌هایی که از طریق مرور سیستماتیک بدست آمده، اجرا شد و در بخش کمی از روش مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری با رویکرد تحلیل عاملی بهره گرفته شد. جامعه آماری در بخش کیفی پژوهش حاضر، 161مقاله داخلی و خارجی نمایه شده در سایت‌های علمی معتبر طی سال‌های 2022-2002 بود. و جامعه آماری در بخش کمی شامل ترکیبی از خبرگان دانشگاهی، مسئولان اجرایی و فعالین و حرفه‌مندان آشنا به حوزه شهرسازی، به خصوص شهر کرج بودند که 400 نفر از آنان بر اساس فرمول کوکران و به روش دردسترس به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها در بخش کیفی چک‌لیست و در بخش کمی پرسشنامه‌ای محقق‌ساخته شامل 60 گویه بود که پایایی آن بر مبنای آلفا کرونباخ 844/0 بدست آمد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای MAXQDA 13.28 و Smart PLS 3.2 استفاده شد. شاخص‌های نیکویی برازش و 818/0=GOF نشان داد که مدل از قدرت برازش مناسبی با داده‌ها برخوردار بود. نتایج حاصله حاکی از آن است که حضور ابعاد؛ اجتماعی (925/0= β)، اقتصادی (731/0= β)، سازمانی/ نهادی (863/0= β)، ساختاری/ کالبدی (797/0= β)، زیرساختی/ فیزیکی (946/0= β) و زیست محیطی (611/0= β) و مؤلفه‌های آن‌ها در مدل تاب‌آوری شهری در برابر سیل تأیید می‌شود (01/0>P). همچنین بعد زیرساختی/ فیزیکی بیشترین تأثیر را بر تاب‌آوری شهری در برابر سیل دارد و مولفه‌ها و زیر‌مولفه‌های این بعد پر‌اهمیت به‌منظور بهره‌برداری اجرایی مختلف ارائه شده است.
Urban resilience, a prominent theory in the realm of urban planning, plays a significant role in bridging the gap between theory and practice in this field. Numerous scholars of urban planning have investigated resilience in their studies and they are exploring its meaning to be used in planning operations and in governance institutions. This surge of attention to the study of new concepts by planners has led to innovation, and finally, their tendency to improve the current conditions in cities. In this study, among the possible natural disasters in Karaj, the flood is chosen because of its importance and the considerable attention to it. It should be noted that the threat of flooding in Karaj deserves due attention because this city is located near the Karaj River and dam, and there is a possibility of river overflow and inundation, which could cause huge damages to urban facilities. In addition, any danger related to the Karaj River and dam could affect the water supply to Tehran, making this disaster more important. Therefore, it is essential to identify and extract the dimensions and elements of urban resilience, and a research in this field requires deep investigation. In this regard, this study seeks to identify the elements and dimensions of urban resilience against flood in Karaj city using theme analysis approach and quantitative evaluation by Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) method. This study is an applied research in terms of purpose, and a mixed methods research that conducted content analysis on the qualitative data collected by systematic review. This study used a Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) method in quantitative research with factor analysis approach. The population of qualitative research consisted of 161 national and international papers published in reliable scientific journals from 2002 to 2022, which included the keywords of ‘Urban Resilience’ and ‘Urban Resilience against Flood’. These papers were selected as samples by a judgmental sampling and were analyzed to get a general idea of effective dimensions and elements of urban resilience to flood in Karaj city. For this purpose, qualitative research, and in particular, content analysis was conducted. In addition, the population of quantitative research included senior and middle managers, operating officers of urban planning who worked in the ministry of road and urban development, faculty members and academicians, experts, practitioners and employees of research centers, as well as PhD students of urban planning field. Of which 400 were selected as sample by convenience sampling method, using the Krejcie and Morgan table. The instruments of collecting data in qualitative research were a checklist, and in quantitative research, a researcher-made questionnaire whose reliability was estimated at 0.844 based on the Cronbach’s alpha. The questionnaire included 60 items that were organized in a five-point Likert scale. In order to evaluate validity and reliability, the questionnaire was sent to the elites and the final version was designed after confirming the content validity index and ratio. The electronic link of the questionnaire was sent to the sample group, who completed and returned it via internet. For data analysis, MASQDA 13.28 and Smart PLS 3.2 were used. Goodness of fit (GOF=0.818) showed that the model fitted well with data. The results confirmed presence of social (β=0.925), economic (β=0.731), institutional/organizational (β=0.863), physical/structural (β=0.797), infrastructure/physical (β=0.946) and environmental (β=0.611) dimensions and their elements in the model of urban resilience to flood (P<0.01). Moreover, the results suggest that infrastructure/physical dimension has the most effect on urban resilience to flood and the elements and sub-elements of this significant dimension are provided in this study. It should be noted that the outputs of coding process need much attention, as they lead to the extraction of initial concepts. One of these concepts is ‘Increased urban capacities’ which was missed completely in the literature of urban resilience despite the considerable attention to this concept in engineering sciences such as civil and mechanical engineering. In fact, the researchers of this study believe that this concept involves some elements that imply that a city can cope with a natural or man-made disaster, if it is organized by elements of urban resilience. In other words, if the city maintains its function during the disaster, it can achieve a state that is better than the conditions of before the disaster.