تحلیل آینده¬نگر مشارکت مردمی در مدیریت بحران با رویکرد سناریونویسی (مطالعة موردی: شهر اردبیل)
هما واعظی
1
(
دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
)
عطا غفاری گیلانده
2
(
دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
)
علیرضا محمدی
3
(
عضو هیئت علمی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
)
کلید واژه: آینده¬پژوهی, سناریو, شهر اردبیل, مدیریت بحران, مشارکت مردمی,
چکیده مقاله :
مديريت بحران برای تحقق توسعه پايدار در جامعه امری ضرورى میباشد. با توجه به محدودیتهای موجود در رویکرد کالبدی مدیریت بحران و هزینههای سنگین آنها، پرداختن به رویکردهایی که از طریق توانمندسازی اجتماعات محلی سبب کاهش آسیبپذیری جامعه و تسهیل فرایند مدیریت بحران در شهرها میشوند ضرورت دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر تدوین سناریوهای مشارکت مردمی در فرایند مدیریت بحران شهر اردبیل براساس اصول آیندهپژوهی میباشد. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف، کاربردي و از نظر ماهيت، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است که با بهکارگیری رويکرد آيندهپژوهي صورت گرفته است. روش جمعآوری اطلاعات، کتابخانهاي و ميداني میباشد. براساس یافتههای پژوهش شش متغیر بهعنوان متغیرهای کلیدی انتخاب شدهاند. با بررسيهاي نظري و استفاده از نظرات کارشناسان، براي هریک از عوامل کليدي پژوهش، سه وضعيت در طيفهاي مطلوب تا بحراني در نظر گرفته شده است که بهطورکلی اين 6 مولفه با 18 وضعيت محتمل در افق 1410 روبهرو هستند. برمبنای تحلیلهای حاصل از نرمافزار سناریو ویزارد 2 سناریو بسیار قوی، 60 سناریو ضعیف و 7 سناریو با سازگاری زیاد به دست آمده است. در میان این سه گروه سناریو، بیشترین روایی مربوط به سناریوهای گروه سوم یعنی سناریوهای با سازگاری بالا است. در جهت تحليل سناريوهاي با سازگاري زياد از روش استقرايي استفاده شده است. اين روش کلیه عوامل کليدی را به دو بعد کلي اجتماعی و فرهنگی گروهبندی مينماید. برمبنای گروهبندیهای صورت گرفته در روش استقرايي، سه سناريوي طلايي، باورکردني و فاجعه برای موضوع پژوهش در نظر گرفته شده است. در پایان نیز جهت اجرایی کردن سناریوهای باورکردنی پیشنهاداتی ارائه شده است.
چکیده انگلیسی :
disaster management is essential for achieving sustainable development in community. Given the limitations of the physical approach to disater management and its heavy costs, it is necessary to address approaches that reduce the vulnerability of society and facilitate the disaster management process in cities by empowering local communities. The aim of this research is to develop scenarios of public participation in the disaster management process of Ardabil city based on the principles of futures studies. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of nature, which has been conducted using the approach of futures studies. The method of data collection is library and field research. Based on the results, six variables are selected as key variables. Through theoretical examinations and expert opinions, three situations ranging from desirable to critical have been considered for each of the key factors in the research, resulting in a total of 18 possible situations in the horizon of 1410. Based on the analysis from the Scenario Wizard software, 2 very strong scenarios, 60 weak scenarios, and 7 scenarios with high consistency have been obtained. Among these three groups of scenarios, the highest validity belongs to the scenarios in the third group, which are scenarios with high consistency. The inductive method has been used to analyze scenarios with high consistency. This method categorizes all key factors into two general dimensions as social and cultural. Based on the groupings made in the inductive method, three golden, believable and catastrophic scenarios have been considered. Finally, some suggestions are provided for implementation of believable scenarios.
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