بررسی توریسم شهرستان فریدون‌شهر تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم
محورهای موضوعی : ارزیابی پی آمدهای محیط زیستی
عباسعلی آروین
1
(دانشیار گرو جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: شاخص اقلیم توریسم, تغییر اقلیم, فریدون‌شهر, آزمون‌های ناپارامتری,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: صنعت توریسم به علت وابستگی نزدیک به شرایط جوی از تغییر اقلیم تأثیر بیش تری می پذیرد و تأثیر آن در شهرستان فریدون شهر که توان اکوتوریستی آن به شرایط جوی گره خورده، شدیدتر است. روش بررسی: در این پژوهش روند تغییرات شرایط زیست اقلیمی توریسم شهرستان فریدون شهر با استفاده از روش ناپارامتری من کندال بررسی شد. برای این منظور از آمار ماهانه عناصر اقلیمی مورد استفاده در الگوی اقلیم توریسم TCI در یک دوره 30 ساله از 1987 تا 2016 استفاده گردید. یافته ها: نتایج آزمون من کندال نشان داد تغییرات متوسط حداکثر دمای روزانه و متوسط شبانه روزی دما، دارای روند افزایشی و تغییرات متوسط حداقل و متوسط رطوبت نسبی دارای روند کاهشی است. تغییر در شرایط زیست اقلیمی برخی ماه ها از دیگر پیامدهای تغییر در روند پارامترهای اقلیمی است. برای مثال شرایط زیست اقلیمی ژانویه از بسیار نامناسب به نامناسب، مارس از نامناسب به شرایط مرزی و آوریل از قابل قبول به شرایط مرزی تغییر خواهد کرد. بحث و نتیجه گیری: تغییر در شرایط اقلیمی از جمله کاهش معنادار بارش که با افزایش متوسط دما و متوسط حداکثر دمای همراه است، پیامدهایی مانند کاهش ریزش ها به صورت برف، آب شدن سریع برف ارتفاعات و کاهش مطلوبیت محیط برای تفریحات در فصل سرد و گرم را در پی داشته است که از دست دادن اقلیم ییلاقی نواحی کوهستانی و شادابی زیست بوم گیاهی و جانوری از دیگر پیامد آن است. این رویه به کاهش در جذابیت اکوتوریستی منطقه منجر خواهد شد.
Background: The tourism industry, due to its strong dependence on weather conditions, is influenced more by climate change; this impact is more intense in Faridounshahr County, where its ecotourism potential is more dependent on the climatic conditions. Method: In this research, the trend representing the bio-climatic tourism changes of Fereydounshahr County was investigated by using nonparametric methods. For this purpose, the monthly climatic elements employed in the TCI tourism climate model were used during a period of 30 years, from 1987 to 2016. Finding: The results obtained by conducting the Man-Kendall test showed that the trend related to variations in the maximum daily and the average daily temperature was a growing one; while variations in the minimum average and the average relative humidity showed a deceasing trend; this was followed by a decrease in the amount of precipitation, thereby severely affecting the TCI index. Changes in bioclimatic conditions of some months were another consequence of the changes in the trend of climatic parameters. For example, January living conditions varied from very inappropriate to inappropriate, March changed from inappropriate to border conditions, and April conditions ranged from acceptable to borderline. Discussion and Conclusion: Change in climatic conditions include; the significant decrease of precipitation, as accompanied by an increase in the average temperature and the average maximum temperature, had such consequences as decreased snow falls, the rapid melting of snow in high altitudes, and the reduced desirability of the environment for recreation on the snow in the cold season, as well as the loss of mountain climates and the liveliness of vegetation and animal ecosystems. This will lead to decrease in eco-tourism attractions.
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13. ANĐELKOVIĆ, G. ANĐEL, PAVLOVIĆ, S. ĐURĐIĆ, S. BELIJ, M. STOJKOVIĆ S., 2016, TOURISM CLIMATE COMFORT INDEX (TCCI) – AN ATTEMPT TO EVALUATE THE CLIMATE COMFORT FOR TOURISM PURPOSES: THE EXAMPLE OF SERBIA, Global NEST Journal, 18(3), 482-493,
14. Scott, D.l, Michelle R., Bas A., and Mantao T., 2016, An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) in Europe, Atmosphere, 7(80), 1-17.
15. Dubois, Ghislain, Jean Paul Ceron, Clotilde Dubois, Maria Dolores Frias and Sixto Herrera, 2016, Reliability and usability of tourism climate indices. Earth Perspectives, 3(2) 1-8.
16. Kovács, A., Németh, Á., János U., and Noémi K., 2017,Tourism climatic conditions of Hungary – present situation and assessment of future changes, Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 121(1), 79–99.
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1. Arvin, A.A., Sajadian, S. M., Ghangherme, A. and Heydari, J., The Roll of Subtropical Jet-Stream on Daily Precipitation more than 10mm in Zayanderood basin, Natural Geographical Research, 47(1). 125-142. (In Persian)
2. Saeed Abadi, M. R., Saadatfar, A. and Ahmadi, N. 2014. National Climate Change Initiative, Third National Climate Change Report to the Secretariat of the Convention (UNFCCC) Section IV: Assessment of Vulnerability and Compatibility of the Tourism Industry, Environmental Protection Agency. (In Persian)
3. Ranjbar, F., Moqalib, M. and Arsalanani, M. 2010. Investigating the Relationship between Climatic Conditions and Annual Tourism Trends in Marvdasht, Journal of Natural Geography, 3(7). (In Persian)
4. Taheri, K. and Ghaffarian, P. 2015. The Impact of Climate Change on Nature Tourism in the Karst Areas: From Aesthetic Threat to Landscape to Environmental Impacts, 5th Regional Conference on Climate Change, 26 January, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
5. Khoshnevis Y. S., 2012,Sustainable Tourism, American International Journal of Social Science, 1(1), 50-56.
6. Davies, T. and Cahill, S., 2000, Environmental Implications of the Tourism Industry Discussion Paper, Washington, DC 20036, 00-14.
7. Scott, D., Geoff M., Michael S., 2004, Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America, CLIMATE RESEARCH, 27, 105–117.
8. Matzarakis. A. Freitas, C. R. de and Scott, D. (2007): Assessment Method for Climate and Tourism Based on Daily Data. Development in Tourism Climatology. Pp 52-58.
9. Scott, D. & Geoff M., 2004, Using a ‘tourism climate index’ to examine the implications of climate change for climate as a tourism resource Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada, at the Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, N2L 3G1,
10. Hein, L. Metzger, M. J. Moreno, 2009, A, Potential impacts of climate change on tourism; a case study for Spain, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 170-178.
11. Gössling, S., 2010, Tourism and Climate Change Policies for Mitigation and Adaptation, Workshop on sustainable development strategies and tourism, 18 June, OECD, Paris
12. Rabbany, Md. Ghulam Sharmin Afrin, Airin Rahman, Faijul Islam, Fazlul Hoque, 2013, ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF TOURISM , American Journal of Environment, Energy and Power Research, 1(7), 117-130
13. ANĐELKOVIĆ, G. ANĐEL, PAVLOVIĆ, S. ĐURĐIĆ, S. BELIJ, M. STOJKOVIĆ S., 2016, TOURISM CLIMATE COMFORT INDEX (TCCI) – AN ATTEMPT TO EVALUATE THE CLIMATE COMFORT FOR TOURISM PURPOSES: THE EXAMPLE OF SERBIA, Global NEST Journal, 18(3), 482-493,
14. Scott, D.l, Michelle R., Bas A., and Mantao T., 2016, An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) in Europe, Atmosphere, 7(80), 1-17.
15. Dubois, Ghislain, Jean Paul Ceron, Clotilde Dubois, Maria Dolores Frias and Sixto Herrera, 2016, Reliability and usability of tourism climate indices. Earth Perspectives, 3(2) 1-8.
16. Kovács, A., Németh, Á., János U., and Noémi K., 2017,Tourism climatic conditions of Hungary – present situation and assessment of future changes, Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 121(1), 79–99.
17. Zulfikari, H. 2000. Meteorology of Tourism, Position, Tehran First Edition. (In Persian)
18. Sookram, S. 2007, THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TOURISM SECTOR IN SELECTED CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES Caribbean Development Report, Vol. 2, ECLAC – Project Documents collection