تحلیل کیفی علل عدم تحقق شاخص های اقتصادی برنامه پنجم توسعه در استان یزد
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت توسعه
آزاد معلم
1
*
,
وجه الله قربانی زاده
2
1 - دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی تهران
2 - دانشیار مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: برنامه پنجم, مدیریت توسعه, برنامه ریزی, توسعه,
چکیده مقاله :
پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر عدم تحقق شاخص‌های اقتصادی برنامه پنجم توسعه در استان یزد انجام شده است. مسئله اصلی تحقیق، ناکامی استان یزد در دستیابی به اهداف اقتصادی مصوب طی سال‌های اجرای برنامه مذکور است. در این پژوهش از استراتژی کلی موردپژوهی و روش تحقیق ترکیبی استفاده شده است که شامل گردآوری و تحلیل داده‌های کیفی و کمی بوده است. برای جمع‌آوری داده‌های کیفی، با متخصصان و نخبگان مصاحبه عمیق انجام شد و از روش تحلیل مضمونی استفاده شده. مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای با بررسی اسناد رسمی، مقالات، گزارش‌ها و کتب مرتبط انجام شد. برای اطمینان از روایی پژوهش، یافته‌ها با نتایج سایر پژوهش‌ها مقایسه شد و از شاخص ثبات برای بررسی پایایی کدگذاری استفاده گردید. یافته‌ها نشان داد که عوامل ساختاری نظیر نبود توافق بر سر مفهوم توسعه، ضعف نظام بوروکراتیک، ناکارآمدی شوراهای برنامه‌ریزی، و فقدان اکوسیستم توسعه، در کنار عوامل مدیریتی مانند عدم پایبندی مدیران به قوانین، بخشی‌نگری، ضعف نظام جذب و تربیت مدیران حرفه‌ای و فقدان مدیریت دانش، از مهم‌ترین موانع تحقق اهداف توسعه‌ای استان بوده‌اند. همچنین عوامل محیطی همچون تحریم‌های اقتصادی و کمبود منابع آبی نقش بسزایی در ناکامی برنامه ایفا کرده‌اند. نتیجه‌گیری پژوهش بر ضرورت اصلاح ساختارهای نهادی، بهبود مدیریت دولتی، تدوین راهبردهای متوازن توسعه و افزایش مشارکت ذینفعان تأکید دارد. اصالت پژوهش در تحلیل همزمان ابعاد ساختاری، مدیریتی و محیطی و ارائه راهکارهای عملی برای سیاست‌گذاران است. نتایج این تحقیق می‌تواند به ارتقای کارآمدی برنامه‌های توسعه بعدی کمک کند و مسیر اصلاحات ساختاری را برای توسعه پایدار هموار سازد.
This study aims to explore the underlying causes of Yazd Province’s failure to achieve key economic indicators set forth in Iran’s Fifth Five-Year Development Plan. Adopting a qualitative research methodology, the study employs semi-structured interviews with policymakers, senior provincial managers, and academic experts. The findings identify three major categories of factors contributing to this failure: structural, managerial, and environmental. Structurally, the absence of a unified understanding of development, inefficiencies in the planning process, and the weak institutional position of the Provincial Development Council were highlighted. In the managerial domain, the lack of meritocratic recruitment, fragmented decision-making, and inadequate knowledge management were found to be significant. Environmentally, constraints such as water scarcity, economic sanctions, and regional disparities further impeded effective implementation. Comparative analysis with international literature reveals that these issues reflect broader challenges observed in developing countries, particularly in contexts of centralized governance and low bureaucratic capacity. The study concludes that without institutional reforms at both the national and provincial levels—especially in planning systems, governance structures, and managerial competencies—future development plans are unlikely to succeed. The findings offer practical insights for policymakers aiming to promote sustainable and regionally balanced development in Iran.
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity and poverty. New York: Crown Publishers.
Andrews, M., Pritchett, L., & Woolcock, M. (2017). Building state capability: Evidence, analysis, action. London: Oxford University Press. doi:9780198747482.001.0001
Atashbar, T., & Taheri, M. (2011). A collection of studies on the optimal planning model in Iran 1: Concepts and definitions of program and planning. Monthly Report of the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, 19(12), –. [In Persian]
Azimi Arani, H. (2016). Circles of underdevelopment in the Iranian economy. Tehran: Nashr-e-Ney. [In Persian]
Bakhshi, G., Momeni, F., & Mohammadi, T. (2023). A study of thought developments on the relationship and interactions of inequality and growth and its implications for the Iranian economy. Majlis and Rahbord, 30(113), 101–137. doi:10.22034/mr.2021.4790.4646 [In Persian]
Bakhtiyari, S., Dehghanizadeh, M., & Rayati, A. (2012). Productive and non-productive entrepreneurship role in economic development. JEPR, 17(3), 131–159. http://eprj.ir/article-1-640-fa.html [In Persian]
Beheshti, M. B. (1996). The concept of development and its evolution after World War II. Geography and Planning, 3, 19–29. [In Persian]
Dannefer, D., & Perlmutter, M. (1990). Development as a multidimensional process: Individual and social constituents. Human Development, 108–137. doi:10.1159/000276506
Dehghan Manshadi, M., & Poorrahim, P. (2016). Analysis of the business environment in Yazd province during the Fifth Development Plan and strategies for its improvement. In First National Conference on Economic, Social, and Cultural Development of Yazd Province and Its Outlook in 2025. Yazd: Yazd University. [In Persian]
Fazlinejad, S., & Ahmadian, M. (2009). Rent-seeking economy in Iran and ways out of it. Review of Economic Issues and Policies, 10(11 & 12), 129–158. http://ejip.ir/article-1-231-fa.html [In Persian]
Fernández-i-Marín, X., Knill, C., Steinbacher, C., & Steinebach, Y. (2024). Bureaucratic quality and the gap between implementation burden and administrative capacities. American Political Science Review, 118(3), 1240–1260. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423001090
Ghorbanizadeh, V., & Hosseini Maram, S. M. T. (2014). Research methodology and thesis writing in social sciences, behavioral sciences, and management. Tehran: Baztaab Publications.
Hadi Zonooz, B. (2010). An analysis of the economic planning system in Iran (pre-Islamic Revolution period). Tehran: Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. [In Persian]
Hossein Zadeh Lanjabadi, T., & Hosseini, S. J. (2022). Evaluation of the performance of the Sixth Development Plan and the Law on Permanent Provisions of Development Plans (1st ed.). Monthly Report of the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, 30(4), –. [In Persian]
Khandouzi, S. E. (2010). Assessment of development planning method in Iran (1989–2009). JEPR, 15(1), 99–127. http://eprj.ir/article-1-77-en.html [In Persian]
Khastar, H. (2009). A method for calculating coding reliability in qualitative research interviews. Methodology of Social Sciences and Humanities, 15(58), 161–174. [In Persian]
MacKinnon, D., Kempton, L., O’Brien, P., Ormerod, E., Pike, A., & Tomaney, J. (2022). Reframing urban and regional ‘development’ for ‘left behind’ places. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 15(1), 39–56. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsab034
Mahinizadeh, M., & Pourghorban, M. (2022). Assessing the inequality of health distribution among the provinces of Iran during the Fifth Development Plan (2011–2015). Journal of Community Health Research, 11(4), 262–276. [In Persian]
Maleki, S., Firozi, M. A., & Mavedat, E. M. (2016). Development level measurement of the Yazd Province townships by using of HDI and TOPSIS model. Refahj, 16(60), 203–229. [In Persian]
Mehralitabar Firoozjaei, M., & Garainejad, G. (2022). Meta-analysis of the studies of seventy years of development planning, in order to be used in compiling the seventh development plan. Program and Development Research, 3(1), 43–92. doi:10.22034/pbr.2022.327000.1198 [In Persian]
Movaseghi, S. A., & Kaheh, A. (2015). Developmental state and development in Iran. Political Quarterly, 45(4), 967–989. doi:10.22059/jpq.2015.55954 [In Persian]
Nazmfar, H., Alavi, S., & Eshghi, A. (2020). Assessment of the employment situation in Iran at the end of the Fifth Development Plan (the separation of rural and urban employment). Geography (Regional Planning), 10(2-2), 617–634. [In Persian]
Narasimhan, T., & Weaver, J. (2024). Local governance effectiveness under decentralization: Evidence from India. American Economic Review, 114(2), 456–489. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20221712
Newman, L. (2007). Basics of social research: Qualitative and quantitative approaches. London: Allyn & Bacon.
Noormohammadi, K., & Samimi, A. (2021). Development planning in Iran: A re-examination of Dr. Hossein Azimi Arani's views. Tehran: Planning and Budget Organization. [In Persian]
OECD. (2021). Building local ecosystems for social innovation: A methodological framework. OECD Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) Papers, No. 2021/06. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/bef867cd-en
Priya, A. (2021). Case study methodology of qualitative research: Key attributes and navigating the conundrums in its application. Sociological Bulletin, 94–110. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038022920970318
Rajabpour, H. (2016). Evaluation of the position of industrial development strategy in the country’s development plans and its outlook in the Sixth Development Plan. Monthly Report of the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, 24(1), –. [In Persian]
Rauch, J. E., & Meier, G. (2005). Leading issues in economic development (8th ed.). London: Oxford University Press.
Rayati Shawazi, M., & Abbasi Shawzi, M. (2011). Assessing the development status of Yazd province counties using the numerical taxonomy model. Geography Quarterly Journal, 4(16), 54–67. [In Persian]
Salimi, J., Maknoon, R., & Bahrami, M. (2014). A meta-analysis of the pathology of development programs in Iran. A Quarterly Journal of Economic Strategy, 3(10), e103266. [In Persian]
Saraei, M. H., & Kamaeizadeh, Y. (2013). Determining the development level of Yazd province counties in terms of access to health and medical centers using the Morris model. Environmental Planning, 22(6), 63–81. [In Persian]
Saree' Al-Qalam, M. (2011). Rationality and the development of Iran. Tehran: Forouzan Rouz. [In Persian]
Sen, A. (2001). Development as freedom. London: OUP Oxford.
Silverman, D. (2006). Interpreting qualitative data: Methods for analyzing talk, text and interaction (Translated by Nayebi, H.). Tehran: Agah Publishing. [In Persian]
Sobhani, H., & Pasbani Sommeh, A. (2014). On the Sixth Development Plan (5): Planning and proper understanding of development. (A. Pasbani Sommeh, Interviewer). Monthly Report of the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, 22(8). [In Persian]
Statistical Center of Iran. (2023). Statistical Yearbook of Yazd Province, 1390-1395. Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran.
Tayebi Abolhasani, A. (2019). Introduction to research methodology: Standard procedures for qualitative data analysis. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 9(2), 67–96. [In Persian]
Tofigh, F. (2006). Planning in Iran and its future outlook. Tehran: Higher Institute for Management and Planning Education and Research. [In Persian]
Torre, A., & Wallet, F. (2016). Regional development in rural areas: Analytical tools and public policies. Springer.
Zakeri, Z. (2015). A collection of regional studies and land use planning in Iran (2): An analysis of the provincial planning system in Iran with an emphasis on the structure of the Provincial Planning and Development Council. Monthly Report of the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, 23(7), –. [In Persian]
Zakerian, M., Moosavi, N., & Bagheri, A. (2014). Environmental issues and sustainable development of cities in Yazd province. Geography, 11(39), 293–316. [In Persian]
Zarabi, A., & Izadi, M. (2013). Analysis of Iranian provinces development. Spatial Planning, 3(1), 101–116. [In Persian]