بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر خشکسالی کشاورزی گندم کاران بخش کبگیان شهرستان بویراحمد

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

علی غلامی کالوس ¹ , آیت اله کرمی ² , مهدی نوری پور ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه یاسوج گروه مدیریت توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.
2 - دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه مدیریت توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.
3 - دانشیار ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، گروه مدیریت توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/05/24 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/05/25 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01

کلید واژه: رشد اقتصادی, سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی, امید به زندگی, داده‌های پانل,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: خشکسالی از مهم­ترین مخاطرات اقلیمی است که دارای اثرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی می­باشد. این پدیده تهدید بزرگی برای کشاورزی و توسعه به شمار می­رود. خشکسالی هر ساله در بخش­هایی از ایران­ رخ داده و خسارت­های زیادی به همراه دارد، در اثر خشکسالی­های اخیر، طبق برآورد صورت گرفته، در شهرستان بویراحمد، سطح زیر­کشت گندم آبی 1399 نسبت به سال 1382 حدود 26 درصد کاهش یافته است. بنابراین پرداختن به مسئله­ی خشکسالی امری اجتناب ناپذیر به­نظر می­رسد.
مواد و روش­ها: هدف از انجام این پژوهش شناخت اثرات خشکسالی کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی بخش کبگیان شهرستان بویراحمد می­باشد. حجم نمونه براساس جدول بارتلت180 نفر انتخاب و تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها با روش تحلیل محتوا و نرم افزار SPSS و به روش تحلیل عاملی انجام گرفت.
یافته ها: نتایج حاصل نشان می­دهد عامل­های تاب­آوری اقتصادی، تاب­آوری اجتماعی و زیرساختی- مدیریتی به ترتیب به عنوان مهم­ترین و اصلی­ترین عامل­های اثرات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی خشکسالی شناسایی شدند.
بحث و نتیجه­ گیری: احداث سدهای کوچک و سیل بندها به عنوان اصلی­ترین فاکتور عامل زیرساختی از نظر کشاورزان منطقه مورد مطالعه برای کاهش پیامدهای خشکسالی می­باشد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Drought is one of the most important climate hazards that has social, economic and environmental effects. This phenomenon is a great threat to agriculture and development. Droughts occur every year in some parts of Iran and cause a lot of damage. As a result of the recent droughts, according to estimates, in Boyer Ahmad county, the area under water wheat cultivation in 2019 compared to 2012 has decreased by about 26%. Therefore, addressing the issue of drought seems inevitable.
Materials and Methods: The purpose of this research is to know the effects of agricultural drought in the rural areas of Kabgian district of Boyer Ahmad county. The sample size was selected based on Bartlett's table of 180 people and data analysis was done by content analysis method and SPSS software and by factor analysis method.
Findings: The results show that the factors of economic resilience, social resilience and infrastructural-management were identified as the most important and main factors of the economic, social and environmental effects of drought, respectively.
Conclusion: The construction of small dams and floodgate is the main infrastructure factor in the opinion of the farmers of the study area to reduce the consequences of drought.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Afrakhte, H. (2004). The drought and the transformation of the peacekeeping population of Taftan. Geographic Sciences. Geographic Sciences, 4 (5): 122-103.


2. Alipour, H., Chahrsooghi Amini, A., Gharib, A. (2013). Effects of Drought on Socio- Economic Status of farmers: a case study on the Nehbandans wheat farmers. Watershed Management Researches (Pajouhesh- Va- Sazandeg), 26 (99); 113 -125.


3. Alston, M., & Kent, J. (2004). Social impacts of drought. A report to NSW Agriculture, available:

        http//trove.nla.gov.au/version/11733327.

4. Ali Yari.V, and Sharifzadeh, M., and Ahmadvand, M. (2019). Assessing the effects of tourism on rural areas of tourism target in the central part of Firoozabad city using factor analysis model. Tourism Management Studies (Tourism Studies), 14 (45), 221-247.


5. Babaee, O., Alijani, B. (2013). I Spatial Analysis of Long Duration Droughts in Iran (Persian). Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 45(3), 1-12.


6. Bartelett,J. E., J. W .Kotrlik & C. C. Higgins(2001). Organizational research: Determining appropriate sample size in survey research, Information Technology, Learning and Performance Journal, 19(1): 43-50.


7. Bauman, A., Goemans., C., Pritchett, J & McFadden, D. (2013). Estimating the economic and social impacts from the drought in Southern Colorado, Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 1 (151), 61-69.


8. Doostan, R. (2015). Analysis of the Iran droughts in the Past half century. Journal of Climate Research, 1394(23), 1-18.


9. Ebrahimi tabar, E. (2010). Investigating the effect of climate change fluctuations on environmental changes in Rangelands. Masters, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, Sistan and Baluchestan.


10. Friel, S., Berry, H. Dinh, H., O′Brien, L., & Walls, H. L. (2014). The impact of drought on the assocition between food security and mental health in a nationally representative australian sample. BMC Public Health, 14 (1102), 1-11.


11. Ghanbarzadeh, H., behniafar, A. (2010). Economical effects of draughts on rural regions of Shandiz district in decad (1375 – 85 ). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 4(9), 139-164.


12. Hanafi, A., Pashapour, H. (2015). Drought of Kurdistan province and their impact on the relative performance of rain fed wheat. territory, 12(46), 57-72.


13. Heltberg, R., Siegel, P.B., & Jorgensen, S.T. (2009). Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a ‘no-regrets’approach. Global Environmental Change,19. 89-99.


14. Hlalele, BM., Mokhatle, IM. & Motlogeloa, RT. (2016). Assessing economic impacts of agricultural drought: a case of Thaba Nchu, South Africa. Earth Science & Climatic Chang, 7 (1), 1-4.


15. Jafari; F. Shabanali Fami; H., Daneshvar Ameri, G. (2015). Investigating and analysing of the extent of applying drought control measures by farmers of Tarom Olia county. 46(1), 35-42.


16. Kalantari, K. (2001), Regional development and planning (theories and techniques). Khoshbin Publication. Tehran. 132-126.

17- Khoshhal, J., Ghayoor, H., Moradi, M. (2012). A Survey on the Impact of Groundwater Drought in Dehgolan Basin, Kurdistan Province. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 44(1), 19-36.         

doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2012.24732.

18. 18. Mburu Huho, J., Ngaira, J. & Ogindo, H. (2010). Drought severity and their effects on rural livelihoods in Laikipia District, Kenya. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning. 3 (3): 37-43.


19. Nasrnia, F., Zibaei, M. (2017). Determination Farmers' Vulnerability Patterns to Drought in Iran: Case Study of Bakhtegan Basin. Agricultural Economics Research, 9(34), 1-37.


20. Organization of Agriculture Jahad Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province. (2020). Directorate of Plant Production and Improvement of Livestock Production of Jahad-Agriculture Organization of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Unpublished Report.


21. Organization of Agriculture Jahad Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province. (2018). Deputy of Coordination and Extension of Jihad-Agriculture Organization of Kohgiluyeh and Boyerahmad Province, Site-Zone: http://10.7.234.12.


22. Palmer,W.C .1965. meterological drough,us werther Bureau Research. National drought mitigation center.(NDMC). (2003). What is drought? Rettrivedfrom the word wide, 45. web: m.

http://www.drought.uni.edu/whatis/concept.ht

23. Panagoulia, D. & Dimou, G. (2015). Definition and effects of droughts: division of water resources- hydraulic and maritime engineering:

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/273728913.

24. Rahimi, D., Movahdi, S., Barghi, H. (2010). Assessment of Drought Severity Using Normal Precipitation Index (Case study Sistan and Baluchestan Province). Geography and Environmental Planning, 20(4), 43-56.


25. Rezaie, H., & Mohamadi Yeganeh, B. Y. (2014). An Analysis of Drought and Its Impact on Agricultural Economy and Rural Migration (Case Study: Abarkouh County in 1996-2005). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 2(4), 153-177.


26. Riyahi, V., Pashazadeh, A. (2014). Economic and social impacts of drought on rural areas in Germi (Case study: Rural district of Azadlu). Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 8(25), 17-37.


27. Statistical Yearbook Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province. (2016).


28. Wilhite, D.A. & Wood, D. (2001). Revisiting drought relief and management efforts in the west: have we learned from the past? Journal of the west, 40(3), 18-25.