In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model of ordinary differential equations has been formulated to describe the transmission dynamics of HSV-II. The well-posedness of the formulated model equations was proved and the equilibrium points of the model ha More
In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model of ordinary differential equations has been formulated to describe the transmission dynamics of HSV-II. The well-posedness of the formulated model equations was proved and the equilibrium points of the model have been identified. In addition, the basic reproduction number that governs the disease transmission was obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Both local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point of the model equation was established using the basic reproduction number. The results show that, if the basic reproduction is less than one then the solution converges to the disease-free steady-state and the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. On the other hand, if the basic reproduction number is greater than one the solution converges to endemic equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Also, sensitivity analysis of the model equation was performed on the key parameters to find out their relative significance and potential impact on the transmission dynamics of HSV-II. Finally, numerical simulations of the model equations are carried out using the software DE Discover 2.6.4 and MATLAB R2015b with ODE45 solver. The results of simulation show that treatment minimizes the risk of HSV-II transmission from the community and the stability of disease-free equilibrium is achievable when R0<1.
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In this paper, we formulated a dynamical model of COVID-19 to describe the transmission dynamics of the disease. The well possedness of the formulated model equations was proved. Both local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium poi More
In this paper, we formulated a dynamical model of COVID-19 to describe the transmission dynamics of the disease. The well possedness of the formulated model equations was proved. Both local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point of the model equation was established using basic reproduction number. The results show that, if the basic reproduction number is less than one then the solution converges to the disease free steady state i.e. the disease free equilibrium is asymptotically stable. The endemic states are considered to exist when the basic reproduction number for each disease is greater than one. Numerical simulation carried out on the model revealed that an increase in level of contact rate among individuals has an effect on reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 and COVID-19 disease. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the model equation was performed on the key parameters to find out their relative significance and potential impact on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.
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