List of articles (by subject) Financial Economics
-
Open Access Article
1 - Presenting a model of tax non-compliance in Iran based on the network analysis Process (ANP)
Esmaeil Hamid Houshang Amiri Mohammad Ramazan Ahmadi Allah karam SalehiIn the field of corporate tax behavior, corporate governance mechanisms are effective for shaping and monitoring the behavior of managers. The board, which is responsible for allocating resources, improving performance and increasing shareholder wealth, plays a central MoreIn the field of corporate tax behavior, corporate governance mechanisms are effective for shaping and monitoring the behavior of managers. The board, which is responsible for allocating resources, improving performance and increasing shareholder wealth, plays a central role in choosing a tax management strategy. Hence, companies with different governance structures may adopt different types of tax management. Therefore, it can be argued that corporate governance mechanisms can affect corporate tax activities. In order to achieve the weight of the identified criteria, the network analysis process method was used. The purpose of this method was to structure the decision-making process, according to a scenario affected by multiple independent factors. In this method, there can be a relationship between all levels, while in the method of hierarchical analysis process, this relationship could only be from high levels to low levels. The method of the network analysis process, such as the hierarchical analysis process, calculates the inconsistency of all judgments by the conformity rate, and the calculated inconsistency rate must be less than 10%. The compatibility coefficient of the final matrix shows the validity of the questionnaire. In order to analyze the data, Super Decision 1.6.0 software developed by Thomas L. Saati, the inventor of this method, as well as MS Excel 2019 software were used. There is considerable evidence that increasing tax requirements can increase tax compliance, but typically some types of tax offenses are used as a tool to control the phenomenon of tax default. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Political Connections and Related-Party Transactions: Evidence from Iranian Firms
Ali Jaafar Nodeh Mehdi Safari GerayliThe present study aims to investigate the association between political connections and related-party transactions for the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Sample includes the 485 firm-year observations from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange MoreThe present study aims to investigate the association between political connections and related-party transactions for the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Sample includes the 485 firm-year observations from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2013 to 2017 and research hypothesis was tested using multivariate regression model based on panel data.We find that political connections are negatively associated with related-party transactions. In other words, politically connected firms are less inclined to exercise opportunistic behaviours by related-party transactions in comparison to other firms. Moreover, additional analysis reveals that the negative relationship between political connections and related-party transactions is more pronounced in larger firms.Our findings not only extend the extant theoretical literature concerning the stock political economy in developing countries including emerging capital market of Iran, but also help investors, managers, capital market regulators, policy makers and accounting standard setters to make informed decisions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Impact of Momentum on Stock Returns in Different Market Conditions
Alireza Ghiyasvand Roya Darabi Mohsen HamidianThe purpose of this study is to compare the impacts of momentum on stock returns of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange in different market conditions. For this purpose, the sample size is 120 months from 2008 to 2017. The research hypotheses are estimated using m MoreThe purpose of this study is to compare the impacts of momentum on stock returns of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange in different market conditions. For this purpose, the sample size is 120 months from 2008 to 2017. The research hypotheses are estimated using multivariate linear regression using time series method. Based on the results of the hypotheses test, the momentum in each of the market conditions, including normal, ascending and descending conditions, has a positive and direct effect on the stock returns of the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange, which indicates the principle of investors' insatiability in the stock exchange Tehran seeking to maximize its return on investment with a certain risk that in a downside mode of market, their insatiability exits less and faster than their momentum conditions, which is a reason for investors' loss evasion in this situation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Study of Financial Distress Spillover Effect among Automobile Supply Chain Companies
Mirfeiz Fallahshams Bita DelnavazMultiplicity of the companies experiencing financial distress in different countries and as a consequence, their bankruptcy and the impacts on other companies have necessitated conducting research on methods of prediction of such conditions and also their effects on oth MoreMultiplicity of the companies experiencing financial distress in different countries and as a consequence, their bankruptcy and the impacts on other companies have necessitated conducting research on methods of prediction of such conditions and also their effects on other companies in the market. In this regard, this research has investigated the financial distress spillover in the automobile supply chain companies. For doing so, the methods of default probability time series KMV and the distance from default of four supply chain companies of Iran Khodro and four supply chain companies of SAIPA were calculated. Then, the financial distress spillover in these two major companies was measured in separated models using multivariate GARCH model. The results of the default probability of Iran Khodro companies showed that the default probability with pause of Khodro on the default probability of supply chain companies was significant and negative in 10% level. The results for SAIPA supply chain companies revealed that the default probability with pause of Khaspa had an impact on default probability of Kaspa, Pask and Khazin in significance level of 10%. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Asymmetric Cost Behavior, Industry Type, and Levels of Conservatism (Comparative Study of Non-Operating Accrual, Basu, and Market Value Models)
Zakvan Imani Mohammad Hossein Ranjbar Faegh Ahmadi Hamidreza VakilifardThe present study aims to examine the relationship between cost stickiness and conservatism levels according to the type of industry. This purpose is achieved using the combined data technique and three models of non-operating accruals, the Basu model, and the market va MoreThe present study aims to examine the relationship between cost stickiness and conservatism levels according to the type of industry. This purpose is achieved using the combined data technique and three models of non-operating accruals, the Basu model, and the market value model with a sample consisting of 113 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) over the period 2011 to 2020. Findings show that based on the model of non-operating accruals in the automotive, pharmaceutical, chemical, and food industries, cost stickiness decreases the level of conservatism. However, in the machinery industry, the relationship is significantly based on this model, but cost stickiness does not reduce the level of conservatism. According to the Basu model in the chemical, food, and basic metals industries, cost stickiness reduces the level of conservatism. But in the pharmaceutical industry and machinery and equipment, there is a significant relationship according to this model, but cost stickiness does not decrease the level of conservatism in companies. Also, based on the market value model in the automotive, chemical, machinery, and basic metal industries, there is a significant association, but cost stickiness does not decrease the level of conservatism in companies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Comparison of profitability of speculation in the foreign exchange market and investment in Tehran Stock Exchange during Iran's currency crisis using conditional Sharpe ratio
Mohsen Mehrara Saeid TajdiniIn the first nine months of 2018, the triple increase of dollar price made the stock market an attractive place for speculation, especially for non-professional investors. Hence, this study was aimed to investigate the profitability of speculation in the foreign exchang MoreIn the first nine months of 2018, the triple increase of dollar price made the stock market an attractive place for speculation, especially for non-professional investors. Hence, this study was aimed to investigate the profitability of speculation in the foreign exchange market (dollar) and to compare it with investment in three indices of sugar, oil products, and basic metals. First, the conditional Sharpe ratio was calculated separately for these four assets. Then, six investment portfolios were developed for these four assets. The results showed although dollar speculation with mean daily return of 0.6% had the highest return among the ten investment assets, dollar speculation was ranked last, or tenth (0.096) in terms of performance and profitability by considering the standard deviation or daily conditional risk using conditional Sharpe ratio. Moreover, the results indicated that from among the six portfolios with equal weight, three investment portfolios consisting of merely Tehran Stock Exchange indices had a better performance than three investment portfolios comprising dollar speculation and each stock exchange index. It was also found that the risk of lack of capital diversification by investors was higher than that of accepting a higher-level risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Predicting Stock Price Crash Risk with a Deep Learning Approach from Artificial Intelligence and Comparing its Efficiency with Classical Predicting Methods.
Meysam Rahmati Ehsan Taieby SaniPurpose of this research is Predicting Stock Price Crash Risk with a Deep Learning Approach from Artificial Intelligence and Comparing its Efficiency with Classical Predicting Methods. This research is post-event correlation type and practical in terms of purpose. The r MorePurpose of this research is Predicting Stock Price Crash Risk with a Deep Learning Approach from Artificial Intelligence and Comparing its Efficiency with Classical Predicting Methods. This research is post-event correlation type and practical in terms of purpose. The research data were extracted from the website of the Stock Exchange Organization and Codal website. The risk variable of crashing stock prices was introduced as a predictor. 3200 obser-vations were obtained from 10-year data of 320 companies between 2012 and 2021. In the following, 29 variables were identified as variables that can affect the risk of crashing stock prices. Statistical methods such as unit root test, composite data, Hausman test and variance heterogeneity test were used. Next, the top 10 algorithms in the field of deep learning were selected and used to model the mentioned variables with the CNN method. Python, Eviews and Excel software were used in this research. Examining the performance of different deep learning algorithms shows that the convolutional neural network method performs better compared to other algorithms and can improve the prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is suggested to use this algorithm in reviewing econometric data and especially predicting the risk of crashing stock prices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - CEO Overconfidence and Over investment: Role of Exchange Rate
Hossein Alidadi Mohammadreza Abdoli Farhad DehdarThe financial anomalies, which have brought about challenges for the nature of efficient-market hypothesis, provide ample experimental evidence on the deviation of market from rationality. According to the efficient-market hy-pothesis, investors avail themselves of all MoreThe financial anomalies, which have brought about challenges for the nature of efficient-market hypothesis, provide ample experimental evidence on the deviation of market from rationality. According to the efficient-market hy-pothesis, investors avail themselves of all the information available in the market, and then attempt a thorough and painstaking interpretation of it. The empirical evidence, however, reveals that most investors fail to imple-ment rigorous information processing, thereby rendering to a number of behavioral theories concerning market inefficiency and biased information processing. The current research sets out to identify and scrutinize the im-pact of the CEO’s perceptual biases in judgment and economic decision-making on the reporting quality of the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Ex-change. The Purpose of this study CEO Overconfidence and Overinvestment by Role of Economic moderators Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). One hun-dred five companies were selected as the sample size by systematic removal sampling reviewed in 2012-2019. Due to its dichotomous dependent variable, this study uses probit regression to test the research hypotheses. The results indicated the significant positive effect of CEO overconfidence on overin-vestment. It was also noted that Exchange Rate strengthens the positive effect of CEO overconfidence on overinvestment. Based on these results, the CEO's decisions as a decision-maker in charge of any company, especially under inflationary conditions, can play a substantial role in future corporate investment levels. The findings reveal that the indices of the CEO’s percep-tual biases in judgment and economic decision-making exert a significantly negative effect on financial reporting reliability and competitiveness. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Investigate the Economic Consequences to the Timing of Earnings News Forecast for Accepted Corporates in Tehran Securities Exchange
Asghar Karimi Khorami Alireza Zareie Sodani Saeed Ali AhmadiCorporate managers can share information about the financial status and corporate future perspective with stockholders in different ways. In recent years, the corporate program for maximizing the appropriate reaction of Securities Exchange to corporate position performa MoreCorporate managers can share information about the financial status and corporate future perspective with stockholders in different ways. In recent years, the corporate program for maximizing the appropriate reaction of Securities Exchange to corporate position performance and minimizing the inappropriate reaction to their negative performance has been considered by analysts and accounting researchers. In this research we use the multivariate regression model to test the hypotheses and our statistical population is Tehran stock Exchange corporate. After sampling, 64 corporates have been selected during 2014to 2018. And to test hypotheses Multivariate regression has been used According to the results obtained Managers change timing to hide The bad news is that they are using the stock market after hours after the stock market Managers while have made less use of the weekend and busy days to hide bad news The results also show that companies have used time changes to highlight good news rather than hide bad news So to investors and other users It is advisable to pay attention to the time changes of the forecast profit, to make a more correct decision. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Bank Lending Channel Reaction to Financial Suppression Policies
Fatemeh Johari Gholamali Haji Nader Mehregan Ahmad SarlakIran's economy has been suffering from the dominance of fiscal policies and financial repression for many years, so that this issue has become one of the structural challenges of the country's economy. Banks, as one of the most important parts of macroeconomics, play an MoreIran's economy has been suffering from the dominance of fiscal policies and financial repression for many years, so that this issue has become one of the structural challenges of the country's economy. Banks, as one of the most important parts of macroeconomics, play an important role in the mechanism of transferring monetary policy to the real sector of the economy. Monetary policy transmission operates through various channels: the lending channel, the balance sheet channel, and the capital channel. Examining how the role of banks in monetary policy transmission is affected by government fiscal repression policies provides useful information for monetary and financial policymakers and banking activists. In this study, we tried to investigate the effect of financial repression on the monetary policy transmission through the lending channel of the country's banks. First, an indicator for the financial repression variable was defined using the PCA method, and then the relationship was estimated using the SVAR method and instantaneous response functions and using seasonal data for the period 1999- 2017. The results show that financial repression policies have a significant effect on bank lending and reduce banks' lending power. This issue, along with the negative real interest rate of bank facilities, causes a decrease in the profitability index and loss of banks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Investors' Behavioral Biases in Tehran Stock Exchange by emphasizing the Role of Significant Weaknesses in Internal Control
Mariyeh Hasani Mansour Gharkaz Alireza Maetoofi Hosein DidehkhaniMany behavioral biases affect investors when making decisions.Behavioral distortions divert the investor from rational decisions, and as a result, resources are not diverted to appropriate investments.Behavioral biases can be evaluated in different types including the t MoreMany behavioral biases affect investors when making decisions.Behavioral distortions divert the investor from rational decisions, and as a result, resources are not diverted to appropriate investments.Behavioral biases can be evaluated in different types including the two phenomena of mental anchor and collective behavior of investors. In the present study, the phenomenon of collective behavior and mental anchor of investors with emphasis on significant weaknesses in internal control has been investigated. For this purpose, the data of 125 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2012 to 2018 were used.Data analysis was performed in eviews software version 10 and in order to fit the regression models,the generalized least squares method of panel data was used. The results using univariate analysis showed that there is no significant difference between the amount of behavioral biases in each of the two groups of companies with weakness and lack of weakness in internal control.While multivariate analysis of data in the form of regression models showed that the auditor's report on significant weaknesses in internal control,(which Weakness indicates high agency costs and high information asymmetry between managers and shareholders) strengthens It is the collective behavior of investors but it has no effect on their mental anchor.According to the results, it seems that the behavioral biases of investors are conditioned by the priority and importance of good and bad news in the market.As long as there is bad news in the stock market towards the company, good news can’t cause behavioral bias in investors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Optimization of auditing strategies in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange
Sajjad Azizi Barani Rasoul Abdi Nader Rezaei Asgar PakmaramAccounting processes and their related decisions play an important role in organizing business. If the organization does not have a comprehensive accounting system, managing it will face many problems such as liquidity deficit, tax penalties and so on. Therefore, optimi MoreAccounting processes and their related decisions play an important role in organizing business. If the organization does not have a comprehensive accounting system, managing it will face many problems such as liquidity deficit, tax penalties and so on. Therefore, optimizing accounting processes is essential for managing an organization and improves the company's performance and greater efficiency for business activities. On the other hand, estimates and subjective judgments in preparing financial statements have caused controversy among auditors and owners. In particular, in cases where the standards are not clear, the use of unavoidable judgment and mentality creates ambiguity in financial reporting. This is while the ultimate value of audit activity is in helping the user to determine the quality of the information received. On the other hand, the financial reporting crises of recent years have focused the attention of researchers and professional associations on increasing the reliability of audit reports and reducing negligence. Therefore, considering the importance of auditing and the quality of financial reporting, this study examines and analyzes auditing strategies and determines the optimal strategy to improve the quality of financial reporting. For this purpose, 120 companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange, which have a legal and formal audit system and use external audit firms for auditing, are considered as a statistical sample based on the counting method, and the senior supervisors, managers and partners of this Companies have been questioned. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect of Exchange and Bank Facility Rates on Labor Productivity in Iran: NARDL Approach
Saeed Dehghan Manshadi Mohsen Zayandehroodi Abdolmajid JalaeeOne of the most critical indicators of one-factor productivity is the labor productivity index. This index has various and broad applications in the dimensions of economic policy. On the one hand, the labor productivity index determines per capita income levels and livi MoreOne of the most critical indicators of one-factor productivity is the labor productivity index. This index has various and broad applications in the dimensions of economic policy. On the one hand, the labor productivity index determines per capita income levels and living standards. On the other hand, efficiency combined with other factors such as capital stock can make technical changes. The issue of how monetary and exchange rate variables affect labor productivity has been of particular importance in recent international studies. Due to the importance of the issue, this study investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate and bank facility rates on labor productivity in Iran in 1971-2018. The results of model estimation by self-explanatory method with nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) indicate that in the short and long run, the effect of free-market exchange rates and bank lending rates on labor productivity is asymmetric so that reductions in exchange rates have a significant direct effect on labor productivity and increases are not significant. In addition, increases in bank lending rates have a direct effect and reductions have an adverse effect on labor productivity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Designing and validating an agile financial marketing capability model for the development of the health tourism industry after Covid-19
Anoosh Omidi Alireza Pooya Hadi Bastam Ali HosseinzadehToday, health tourism is a growing phenomenon, especially in developing countries, which has been greatly affected by the Covid 19 crisis. After overcoming this crisis and re-competing in this industry, our country also needs to develop capabilities. Take your marketing MoreToday, health tourism is a growing phenomenon, especially in developing countries, which has been greatly affected by the Covid 19 crisis. After overcoming this crisis and re-competing in this industry, our country also needs to develop capabilities. Take your marketing step and move towards being financially agile. Agility, or the ability to adapt quickly and in a timely manner to changing international markets at low cost and high added value, is therefore cost-effective. The present study was conducted with the exploratory mixed research method and the purpose of designing and validating the agile financial marketing capability model in the health tourism industry in Iran. The statistical population includes health tourism industry experts and prominent professors in the field of finance who have worked in medical centers that provide health tourism services. The research findings led to the identification of 14 main concepts that were presented in the form of a paradigm model and the central category of agile financial marketing capabilities (specialized and structural capabilities) was empirically examined with real data and confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Providing a hybrid strategy based on the theory of turbulence and price acceleration in the Iranian stock market
Rohollah Hamidi Ali Saeedi Mohammad Khodaei Valazaghard Mehdi NaghaviStock prices are influenced by economic, technological, psychological and geopolitical factors. A review of the literature in this field shows that stochastic approaches, trend analysis and econometrics have been used to demonstrate stock market dynamics and price forec MoreStock prices are influenced by economic, technological, psychological and geopolitical factors. A review of the literature in this field shows that stochastic approaches, trend analysis and econometrics have been used to demonstrate stock market dynamics and price forecasting. However, these techniques cannot provide a comprehensive overview of market dynamics. Because they ignore the temporal relationship between these factors and are unable to understand their cumulative effects on prices. By integrating chaos theory and continuous data mining based on price acceleration, this study has eliminated these gaps by inventing a new price forecasting method called dynamic stock market recognition simulator and combining two methods: one is delay structures. Or gives time intervals to the data set, and the other is the method of selecting new variables for the market environment. The results showed that the method used can be used to predict the long-term stock price using a small data set with small dimensions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Capsule Network Regression Using Information Measures: An Application in Bitcoin Market
Mahsa Tavakoli Hassan Doosti Christophe ChesneauPredicting financial markets has always been one of the most challengingissues, attracting the attention of many investors and researchers. In this regard, deeplearning methods have been used a lot recently. Due to the desired results, such networks are always in devel MorePredicting financial markets has always been one of the most challengingissues, attracting the attention of many investors and researchers. In this regard, deeplearning methods have been used a lot recently. Due to the desired results, such networks are always in development and progress. One of the networks that is beingimplemented in various fields is capsule network. The first time the classification capsule network was introduced, it was able to attract a lot of attention with its successon MNIST data 1. In such networks, as in the other ones, the parameters are obtainedby minimizing a loss function. In this paper, we first change the classification capsulenetwork to a regression capsule network by modifying the last layer of the network.Then we use different information measures such as Kullnack-Leibler, Lin-Wang andTriangular information measures as a loss function, and compare their results with wellknown models including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Convolutional Network(CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) as well as common used loss functionssuch as Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Usingappropriate accuracy metrics, it is shown that the capsule network using triangularinformation measure is well able to predict the price of bitcoin for the medium andlong term period including 10, 90 and 180 days. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Investigating the effect of risk on the return of the insurance industry in the Iranian economy using generalized conditional autoregression models, ARIMA-GARCH / TARCH and beta coefficient
Abedin Saeidikia Dariush Hassanvand Reza Maaboudi Farhad TarahomiObjective: A study of the movement of the insurance industry returns shows that the movement of income returns was less than the movement of the insurance industry. The movements of lower income returns than the movements of paid losses of the insurance industry in the MoreObjective: A study of the movement of the insurance industry returns shows that the movement of income returns was less than the movement of the insurance industry. The movements of lower income returns than the movements of paid losses of the insurance industry in the economy are due to various variables, including the management of the insurance industry, part of which is due to risk recognition. Which helps managers in the insurance industry, to the extent of tolerable and intolerable risks in the acceptance or non-acceptance of various swimming risks, and by managing them play an important role in marketing and increasing the demand for insurance and in general, In line with the optimal growth of the insurance industry.Methodology: This study, using generalized conditional autoregression models, ARIMA-GARCH / TARCH and beta coefficient, has evaluated the impact of risk on the return of the insurance industry in the Iranian economy during the period 1350-1398.Results: The results showed that there is a significant relationship between the study of the impact of risk on the return of Basma industry. Also in this research, systematic risk has been investigated using the beta coefficient method. Since the result of the impact of risk on the return on income of the insurance industry is 67%. Because the obtained beta coefficient is less than one and greater than zero. This result indicates that the income of the insurance industry is smaller than the general trend of market movement and risk aversion Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Moderating effect of managerial ability in the relationship between Corporate governance features and financial distress likelihood: (PLS Approach)
Elham Eghbali Ali Asghar Anvary Rostamy Farhad HanifiThe purpose of this research is to examine the effect of ownership structure and audit features on the financial distress likelihood by considering the moderating effect of managerial ability. This study utilized partial least squares structural equations modeling (PLS- MoreThe purpose of this research is to examine the effect of ownership structure and audit features on the financial distress likelihood by considering the moderating effect of managerial ability. This study utilized partial least squares structural equations modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis and data from 107 firms listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Audit features measured by auditor size and audit opinion and ownership structure measured by the block-holder ownership and institutional ownership. Backward logit analysis was used to calculate the financial distress likelihood. DEA technique and Tobit regression were used to measure the managerial ability. The results of the study show that audit features have a positive effect on the likelihood of financial distress. Moreover, the effect of ownership structure on the financial distress likelihood and the moderating effect of manage-rial ability were not confirmed. This paper offers evidence on the extent to which distress is associated with corporate governance and managerial ability from a developing country. The paper should be of interest to the regulatory bodies and practitioners because in many developing countries the implementation of corporate governance mechanisms is voluntary and is not yet required. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Developing Financial Distress Prediction Models Based on Imbalanced Dataset: Random Undersampling and Clustering Based Undersampling Approaches
Seyed behrooz Razavi ghomi Alireza Mehrazin Mohammad reza shoorvarzi Abolghasem Masih AbadiSo far, distress prediction models have been based on balanced, such sampling is not consistent with the reality of the statistical community of companies. If the data are balanced, the bias in sample selection may lead to an underestimation of typeI error and an overes MoreSo far, distress prediction models have been based on balanced, such sampling is not consistent with the reality of the statistical community of companies. If the data are balanced, the bias in sample selection may lead to an underestimation of typeI error and an overestimation of the typeII error of models. Although imbalanced data-based models are compatible with reality, they have a higher typeI error compared to balanced data-based models. The cost of typeI error is more important to Beneficiaries than the cost of typeII error. In this study, for reducing typeI error of imbalanced data-based models, random and clustering-based undersampling were used. Tested data included 760 companies since 2007-2007 with 4 different degrees and the results of the H1 to H3 test represented them. In all cases of the typeI error, typeII error of balanced data-based models were lower and more, respectively, compared to imbalanced data-based models; also, in most cases, the geometric mean of balanced data-based models was higher compared to imbalanced data-based models, respectively. The results of testing H4 to H6 show that in most cases, typeI error, typeII error and the geometric mean criterion of models based on modified imbalanced data were less, more, and more, respectiively compared to the models based on imbalanced data, in other words, applying Undersampling methods on imbalanced training data led to a decrease in typeI error and an increase in typeII error and geometric mean criteria. As a result using models based on modified imbalanced data is suggested to Beneficiaries Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Comparing the Performance of Machine Learning Techniques in Detecting Financial Frauds
Jafar Nahari Aghdam Qala Jougha Nader Rezaei Yagoob Aghdam Mazraee, Rasol AbdiDetecting financial fraud is an important process in the activities of compa-nies. In the last decade, much attention has been paid to fraud detection techniques. Financial fraud is a problem with far-reaching implications for shareholders. Today, financial fraud in com MoreDetecting financial fraud is an important process in the activities of compa-nies. In the last decade, much attention has been paid to fraud detection techniques. Financial fraud is a problem with far-reaching implications for shareholders. Today, financial fraud in companies has become a big prob-lem. Companies and regulatory agencies must continuously develop their mechanisms to detect fraud. Machine learning and data mining techniques are currently commonly used to solve this problem. However, these tech-niques still need to be improved in terms of computational cost, memory cost, and dealing with big data that is becoming a feature of current financial transactions. In this research, machine learning techniques including logistic regression, neural network, and Bayesian linear regression were used to de-tect financial frauds in the Iranian stock market. According to the obtained results, the support vector machine model with radial kernel has the lowest RMSE and the highest accuracy criterion, and the support vector machine model with linear kernel and Bayesian linear regression has the highest RMSE and the lowest accuracy criterion for modeling the financial fraud of companies in they were Tehran stock market. Also, the models of artificial neural network model, Bayesian linear regression and support vector ma-chine model with linear kernel respectively had the lowest characteristic values and did not perform relatively well in detecting the existence of fi-nancial fraud in the companies present in the Tehran stock market. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - Investigating the effect of managers' emotional and spiritual intelligence on the concurrence of stock prices and stock returns
Mehdi Haj Ebrahimi Hossein Shafii Abbas Sheybani TezerjiSpiritual and emotional intelligence in the field of organizational behavior is very important for the performance of companies, concurrent with stock prices, and the expected return of investors. Managers with these two skills have a remarkable ability to create commit MoreSpiritual and emotional intelligence in the field of organizational behavior is very important for the performance of companies, concurrent with stock prices, and the expected return of investors. Managers with these two skills have a remarkable ability to create commitment in employees, strengthen the spirit of self-control in employees and eliminate weaknesses in the control of the company. Is their spirituality and affects the effectiveness of the company. Therefore, based on this argument, the present study examines the effect of managers' spiritual and emotional intelligence on the concurrence of stock prices and stock returns. For this purpose, King (2008) questionnaire and emotional intelligence based on Bar-On (2001) questionnaire were used to measure the spiritual intelligence of managers. The hypotheses were tested using the statistical method of regression analysis with composite data using the information of 60 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in 2019. The findings of the research hypothesis indicate that the emotional and spiritual intelligence of managers affects the concurrence of companies' stock prices. The results also include the effect of managers 'emotional and spiritual intelligence on companies' stock returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Identify and Rank the Effective Factors of Financial Risks and Efficiency in Insurance Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange using the Delphi Method
Marzieh Ahmadi Saied Sehhat Maryam khaliliaraghi Hashem NikoumaramFinancial markets play a key role in economic development, and the insurance industry as a financial institution can be the bedrock of economic growth. Thus, risk and performance appraisal are very important in the insurance industry. There are several methods for evalu MoreFinancial markets play a key role in economic development, and the insurance industry as a financial institution can be the bedrock of economic growth. Thus, risk and performance appraisal are very important in the insurance industry. There are several methods for evaluate risk and efficiency in financial markets, but since the performance of insurance companies is different from other financial institutions for the risk acceptance of other organizations and individuals, it is necessary to rank factors affecting efficiency and risk in insurance companies separately based on the performance of companies prior to focus on the calculation method. This paper discussed factors affecting the financial risks of insurance companies and efficiency and their rankings using the Delphi qualitative method and collecting expert’s opinions as well as data from domestic and forign papers. The statistical population of the research is experts and specialists in the field of risk and insurance. Spss, Eviews and Excell 2013 were used to review the questionnaires and estimate the results. The results of this paper identified the factors affecting each of the risks of financial wealth, liquidity, credit, operations and efficiency, and in the ranking obtained through Friedman test, efficiency is the highest rank, followed by liquidity, operational and credit risk in the rankings. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Partial Least Squares Analysis to Measure the Impact of Pygmalion Financial Components
Ali Akbar Nazarpour Abdul Karim Moghadam Ghasem RekabdarThe growth and development of positive psychological approaches in the field of financial resource management have created transcendental success as a new conceptual basis in the psychology of professions and occupations and has led to a tendency to apply knowledge and MoreThe growth and development of positive psychological approaches in the field of financial resource management have created transcendental success as a new conceptual basis in the psychology of professions and occupations and has led to a tendency to apply knowledge and skills in achieving financial development in terms of job expectations. An increase in that profession and this issue can also lead to the development of ethical financial functions. Specifies. In the meantime, some jobs, such as jobs with more responsibilities and accountability, will play a more significant role in terms of observing the behavior of financial professionals, because if they deviate from ethical principles, it can have serious social consequences. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of financial pygmalion on the development of financial confidence of financial auditors. In this study, partial least squares analysis (PLS) and the opinions of auditors who are members of the auditing organization and private sector auditing firms were used. The results of this study showed that the effect of financial pygmalion on the content understanding of the professional environment and understanding the value of the professional environment and belonging to the auditors 'professional environment as three dimensions of auditors' financial ethics self-confidence has a positive and significant effect. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - Multilevel Convergence, Cluster Fluctuations, Price Bubbles and Fractal Structure; an Experimental Investigation by Foundation Factor Simulation
Farzin Axon Seyed Hossein Nasl Mousavi Abbas Ali Pour AghajanAbstract Cluster fluctuations and fractal structures are the two important features of space-time correlation in complex financial systems. However, the microscopic mechanism of creating and expanding these two features in financial markets remains challenging. In the p MoreAbstract Cluster fluctuations and fractal structures are the two important features of space-time correlation in complex financial systems. However, the microscopic mechanism of creating and expanding these two features in financial markets remains challenging. In the present study, using factor-based model design and considering a new interactive mechanism called multilevel convergence, the process of forming cluster fluctuations according to the fractal structure of financial markets is investigated. Virtual agents' trade in different groups according to market performance and their mass behavior is measured at three levels of stock, segment and market. The results, in addition to providing new insights into the space-time correlations of financial markets, show that multilevel convergence is one of the microscopic mechanisms of microstructure of such markets. In other words, multilevel collective behavior is an important factor in the occurrence of cluster fluctuations, price bubbles and market fractals and therefore should be considered in interpreting the concept of risk and defining risk management strategies from this perspective. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Portfolio Optimization under Varying Market Risk Conditions: Copula Dependence and Marginal Value Approaches
Jila Ahmadi Hasan Ghodrati Ghezaani Mehdi Madanchi Zaj Hossein Jabbari Aliakbar FarzinfarThis paper aims to investigate the portfolio optimization under various market risk conditions using copula dependence and extreme value approaches. According to the modern portfolio theory, diversifying investments in assets that are less correlated with one another al MoreThis paper aims to investigate the portfolio optimization under various market risk conditions using copula dependence and extreme value approaches. According to the modern portfolio theory, diversifying investments in assets that are less correlated with one another allows investors to assume less risk. In many models, asset returns are assumed to follow a normal distribution. Consequently, the linear correlation coefficient explains the dependence between financial assets, and the Markowitz mean-variance optimization model is used to calculate efficient asset portfolios. In this regard, monthly data-driven information on the top 30 companies from 2011 to 2021 was the subject to consideration. In addition, extreme value theory was utilized to model the asset return distribution. Using Gumbel’s copula model, the dependence structure of returns has been analyzed. Distribution tails were modeled utilizing extreme value theory. If the weights of the investment portfolio are allocated according to Gumbel’s copula model, a risk of 2.8% should be considered to obtain a return of 3.2%, according to the obtained results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Voluntary Disclosure Dynamics under Risk and Ambiguity for Digital Corporates in Tehran Stock Exchange Market
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani Teimor Mohammadi Hadi PirdayeThis study aims at investigating the effects of the change in the information environment from risk to ambiguity, disclosure dynamics, and the ambiguity aversion behavior of investors on the disclosure of integrated information for selected corporates operating in digit MoreThis study aims at investigating the effects of the change in the information environment from risk to ambiguity, disclosure dynamics, and the ambiguity aversion behavior of investors on the disclosure of integrated information for selected corporates operating in digital industry listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2012-2022. The corporate voluntary disclosure lag, stock return volatility, and the probability of favorable returns incidence represent respectively the disclosure dynamics, firm risk, and investors' ambiguity aversion, within dynamic panel models. To investigate robustness of the estimates we have also included capital market ambiguity, firm size and stock liquidity indices in the model. The findings are consistent with existing theories. Firm risk and the capital market ambiguity have an increasing impact on the integrated information voluntary disclosure. However, the ambiguity at firm's level has decreased its voluntary disclosure. Likewise, a rise in ambiguity aversion (in-dependent of the ambiguity level), which makes investors more pessimistic about the firm's cash flows, makes the manager to increase the level of voluntary disclosure. Further, inertia in voluntary disclosure has been detected among the studied digital corporates. Depending on the magnitudes of the risk, ambiguity, ambiguity aversion, and the source of investors' ambiguity, the corporate managers decide on their voluntary disclosure policy appropriately. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Comparing the performance of the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method with that of the Recursive Neural Network (RNN) of long-short term memory (LSTM) in forecasting stock price
Ehsan Taieby sani Hossein AmeriIn this research, due to the importance of investing and especially investing in the stock market, we predicted the stock price return on the stock exchange through the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Recursive Neural Network (RNN) of long-short te MoreIn this research, due to the importance of investing and especially investing in the stock market, we predicted the stock price return on the stock exchange through the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Recursive Neural Network (RNN) of long-short term memory (LSTM). Then, to reduce the risk of decision-making, we compared the predictive power of these two models to determine a better model. The research variable is the stock price of the top 20 (in market cap) companies on the stock exchange for the period of the 11th Feb 2015 to 22th Jan 2022. We considered the data of the last 10 days as experimental data and the previous data as educational data. Initially, we calculated the mean and standard deviation of the prediction error of both models; these criteria had less value for the LSTM recursive neural network model than the ARIMA model. To measure the significance of this difference in predictive power, we used Harvey, Liborne, and New Bold tests. The results showed that in predicting the stock prices of the top 20 companies of the stock exchange, the predictive power of the LSTM recursive neural network model was statistically and significantly higher than the ARIMA model which means better predition of stock prices and higher return for investors. In the end, it is believed that the LSTM model may have the best predictive ability, but it is greatly affected by the data processing. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Assessment of Transparency Impact of Accounting Information on the Cost of the Audit for each Type of Industry
Mojtaba SalimiOne of the main instruments of accountability in economic activities is auditing. But despite the extent of audit work, determining the fees for this service in our country is not based on a scientific model and reasonably we cannot claim, according to firm's characteri MoreOne of the main instruments of accountability in economic activities is auditing. But despite the extent of audit work, determining the fees for this service in our country is not based on a scientific model and reasonably we cannot claim, according to firm's characteristic and with what cost, the work would be done. In this regard, we have tested the impact of transparency of accounting information on audit fees. This paper statically sample consists of 64 firms that are analysed in period of 2011-2016 which obtaining total 320 firm-years; for data analysis, we used Kolmogorov-Smirnov for normality of the data, Durbin-Watson test for test of errors independence or absence of autocorrelation, and finally with the help of t-statistical tests, calculated probability is judged and assessed for each of the hypothesis. There are five main hypotheses in present study. Testing hypotheses is taken using panel data and for data analysis we used multivariate regression estimation and SPSS19, EXCEL and Eviews7 software. After designing and testing hypotheses for each hypothesis, it was concluded that the relationship between transparency of accounting information and auditing costs is established at all levels of the company and also at the corporate level companies with low financial leverage. If the relation between transparency of accounting information and auditing costs at the corporate level with high financial leverage is high, there is no significant linear relationship between high cash and low cash. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Examining the Relationship between Corporate Governance and the Corporate Performance Valuation
Forogh Khorshidvand Ahmad SarlakThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between corporate governance characteristics and valuation of the firm's performance in Iran. After designing performance evaluation indexes, information of transactions made during the five-year study from 2011 MoreThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between corporate governance characteristics and valuation of the firm's performance in Iran. After designing performance evaluation indexes, information of transactions made during the five-year study from 2011 to 2015 from the Stock Exchange were collected and the sample consists of 129 companies was selected by systematic elimination that was a total of 645 year-firm. In this study we used the linear regression and correlation for testing the research hypotheses, and Eviews software for analysing the data and testing hypotheses. What can be said in summary and conclusion of research hypotheses test is that, there are a significant and positive relationship between the intensity of supervision, the stock in the hands of the board, executive's changes and board size with the company's performance; in addition, we found a significant and negative relation between firm size and financial leverage with the company's performance. The other results showed no significant and positive relationship between the number of board meetings and the firm's performance; the results in this study corresponded to the documentation mentioned in the theoretical framework and financial literature. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - Performance Analysis and Rating of Insurance Companies Using DEA in Iran Capital Market
Mahboubeh Jafari Maryam MousaviIn this research, we evaluated performance analysis and ranking of insurance companies listed on the capital market of Iran using data envelopment analysis. In respect of the target the research is applied. The type of research design relying on historical data, is even MoreIn this research, we evaluated performance analysis and ranking of insurance companies listed on the capital market of Iran using data envelopment analysis. In respect of the target the research is applied. The type of research design relying on historical data, is event following and inductive method is inference. The study is consisted of a key question and three sub-questions. This research studies the insurance companies listed on the capital market over a three-year period (2013-2015). Finally, according to the study, data was collected from 9 companies. To document the results of the statistical analysis and providing solutions, using SPSS software, Excel and GE MS we attempted to analyse the questions. At the end, the ranking resulted to the conclusion that the most efficient insurance companies of capital markets, are as follows: Alborz, Dana, Sina, Moalem, Asia, Pasargad, Parsian and Saman. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Investigating the Effects of Large Block Transactions and Owner-ship Nature on Non-Financial Disclosure
Mahmood Kohansal Kafshgari Seyed Hossein Mirjamali Monir MirjamaliHaving adequate, sufficient and timely information and data is very important for investors' decision making. Processing information and allocating the asset are two fundamental tasks in the securities market and the stock price is more likely to have the nature of disc MoreHaving adequate, sufficient and timely information and data is very important for investors' decision making. Processing information and allocating the asset are two fundamental tasks in the securities market and the stock price is more likely to have the nature of disclosure, information effectiveness and asset allocation efficiency. Thus, in this research, the effects of large block transactions and ownership nature on the non- financial disclosure have been investigated in the corporates accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange. Research population involves the corporates accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange for a 5-year period (2010-2014) that according to research constraints and using the systematic deletion method, the data related to 133 corporates were gathered. In this study, five main hypotheses have been suggested. To analyze the desired data and test the research hypotheses, the software of Eviews has been implemented. Results indicated that the number of large block transactions and nature of ownership are effective in non-financial information disclosure at the whole and the corporates with high transactions, those with low transactions, those in a business group and those in a diverse business group but the effect and explanatory of dependent variables by the independent ones vary at each level. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - American Option Pricing of Future Contracts in an Effort to Investigate Trading Strategies; Evidence from North Sea Oil Exchange
Ramin Ahmadi Nahal AriankiaIn this paper, Black Scholes’s pricing model was developed to study American option on future contracts of Brent oil. The practical tests of the model show that market priced option contracts as future contracts less than what model did, which mostly represent opt MoreIn this paper, Black Scholes’s pricing model was developed to study American option on future contracts of Brent oil. The practical tests of the model show that market priced option contracts as future contracts less than what model did, which mostly represent option contracts with price rather than without price. Moreover, it suggests call option rather than put option. Using t hypothesis test, price differences were obtained, which can serve as a useful strategy for traders interested in arbitrage practice and risk hedging. This research introduces an optimal strategy (both for call and put option states and buy and sell of future contract ) for all options of buy and sell future contracts with and without price. In this research, six-month data of the end of 2015 about oil option and option of future contracts of North Sea oil for three different maturities were used. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Inflation, Operating Cycle, Cash Holding
Khadijeh Dehghanfard Azar MoslemiThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of inflation and operating cycle on cash holding in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2014.The sample is comprised of 103 companies which are selected by systematic elimination method and total of 515 year-fi MoreThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of inflation and operating cycle on cash holding in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2014.The sample is comprised of 103 companies which are selected by systematic elimination method and total of 515 year-firm collected. In this study for testing the hypothesis is used of linear regression and correlation. To analyse data and test hypotheses is used of Eviews software. After designing and testing hypotheses for each main hypothesis, it was concluded that inflation and operational cycle has not a significant impact on the level of firm's cash holding. The results show no significant effect of inflation through the operating cycle on cash holding. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - The Effect of Investment on the Financing of Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange
Mahdieh Mardani Ahmad SarlakIn the world and in our country, Iran, many researches have been done in the field of financing, but due to the importance of this issue, it needs more thought and contemplation. Therefore, this study assessed “the impact of investments on financing of companies l MoreIn the world and in our country, Iran, many researches have been done in the field of financing, but due to the importance of this issue, it needs more thought and contemplation. Therefore, this study assessed “the impact of investments on financing of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange”. The statistical sample is consisted of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during a five-year period (2010-2014). Ultimately, regarding the limitation of the study and using systematic elimination method, data of 155 companies has been collected. This study in terms of the purpose is a practical research. In terms of type of research design because of relying on historical data, is post-event and its inference method is inductive and in correlation type. This study includes four major hypotheses. In this study to assess the hypotheses, the linear regression has been used. To analyse the data and test hypotheses, EVIEWS software is used. After design and test the study hypotheses that have been done by the separation of each hypothesis, we founded that the current and long-term investments have impact on financing methods through the sale of stocks and debt. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - Impact of Institutional Ownership and Board Independence on the Relationship Between Excess Free Cash Flow and Earnings Management
Allahkaram Salehi Sajjad Mohammadi Marzieh AfshariHowever, the free cash flows scale is important for the financial health of the company, but it has also its own limitations. Moreover, it’s not immune from accounting tricks. Free cash flows can be considered as a measure of value for shareholders of listed compa MoreHowever, the free cash flows scale is important for the financial health of the company, but it has also its own limitations. Moreover, it’s not immune from accounting tricks. Free cash flows can be considered as a measure of value for shareholders of listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange. The managers of these companies have tended to use the earnings management for managing the free cash flow and ultimately shareholder value and wealth. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interactive effect of institutional ownership and board independence on the relationship between excess free cash flow and earnings management in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study is applied and correlation research by its objective and nature. The variables used in this study have been extracted from the financial reports of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange and the web page of Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2009 to 2015. The results suggest that, "institutional ownership" and "board independence" on the relationship between "surplus free cash flow and earnings management" had no significant effect. Manuscript profile