تاثیر تغییر دکترین هسته¬ای روسیه بر شکل¬گیری اتحادها در نوردیک
محورهای موضوعی : روابط بین الملل
1 - استادیار روابط بین الملل و عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا - همدان
کلید واژه: دکترین هسته¬ای روسیه, نوردیک, اتحاد, الگوهای چندسرشتی, امنیت منطقه¬ای ,
چکیده مقاله :
با تغییر دکترین هستهای روسیه در نوامبر ۲۰۲۴، سطح تهدیدات امنیتی علیه کشورهای نوردیک-بالتیک بهگونهای بیسابقه افزایش یافته است. سند جدید با گسترش دامنه مجاز استفاده از تسلیحات هستهای، بهویژه در واکنش به حمایتهای نظامی غرب از اوکراین، موجب بازتعریف ادراک امنیتی در کشورهای شمال اروپا شده است. این مقاله با تکیه بر نظریه اتحاد در روابط بینالملل، به تحلیل واکنش راهبردی کشورهای نوردیک در مواجهه با این تهدید نوظهور میپردازد. روش پژوهش کیفی و مبتنی بر تحلیل اسناد راهبردی، تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی و روندهای نهادی امنیتی در منطقه است. یافتهها نشان میدهد که تغییر دکترین روسیه، زمینهساز شکلگیری دو مسیر همزمان در امنیت منطقهای شده است: پیوستن به نهادهای فرامنطقهای (مانند ناتو) از یکسو، و تقویت ترتیبات درونمنطقهای (مانند NORDEFCO) از سوی دیگر. مقاله نتیجه میگیرد که این تحول امنیتی، اتحادها را بهسوی الگوهای شبکهای و چندسرشتی سوق داده و ممکن است معماری امنیتی اروپا را در میانمدت بازتعریف کند.
With the change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine in November 2024, the level of security threats against the Nordic-Baltic countries has increased to an unprecedented level. The new document has redefined the security perception in the Nordic countries by expanding the scope of the permitted use of nuclear weapons, especially in response to the West’s military support for Ukraine. This article, based on the theory of alliance in international relations, analyzes the strategic response of the Nordic countries in the face of this emerging threat. The research method is qualitative and based on the analysis of strategic documents, geopolitical developments, and security institutional trends in the region. The findings show that the change in Russia’s doctrine has paved the way for the formation of two simultaneous paths in regional security: joining transregional institutions (such as NATO) on the one hand, and strengthening intraregional arrangements (such as NORDEFCO) on the other. The article concludes that this security transformation has pushed alliances towards networked and heterogeneous patterns and may redefine Europe's security architecture in the medium term.
رسولی ثانیآبادی، الهام (1400)، نظریه، فرانظریه و مفاهیم در روابط بینالملل، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی
عسگرخانی، ابومحمد و رضا رحمتی (1389)، نظریه واقع¬گرایی و امنیت بین¬الملل، فصلنامه سیاست خارجی دوره 24 (1)، 139-156.
نقیب¬زاده، احمد (1383)، تاریخ دیپلماسی و روابط بین¬الملل، تهران: قومس.
Archer, C. (2017). The Nordic States and European Security and Defence Policy. European Security, 26(1), 1–20.
ASEAN. (2022). ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus. Retrieved from https://asean.org
Bailes, A. J. K., Haaland Matláry, J., & Ingebritsen, C. (2006). Northern Security and Global Politics: Nordic-Baltic Strategic Influence in a Post-Unipolar World. Routledge.
Bailes, A. J. K., Herolf, G., & Sundelius, B. (2006). The Nordic Countries and the European Security and Defence Policy. Oxford University Press.
Béraud-Sudreau, L., & Giegerich, B. (2018). European military capabilities and cooperation: Prospects and challenges. IISS Strategic Dossier, International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Bergsmann, S. (2001). The Concept of Military Alliance. In: Reiter, E., Gärtner, H. (eds) Small States and Alliances. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-13000-1_4
Eriksson, M., & Norheim-Martinsen, P. M. (2020). Nordic Security Cooperation: Policy, Structure, and Challenges. Oslo: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
European Security: A Comparative Analysis. Routledge.
Fedder Edwin H. (1968): “The Concept of Alliance”, In: International Studies Quarterly V. 12, pp. 65–86.
Forsberg, T., & Herd, G. (2015). The Finnish and Swedish security policy debate: From neutrality to NATO? In Russia and the West (pp. 105–121). Routledge.
Forsberg, T., & Herd, G. P. (2015). Finland and Sweden: From neutrality to NATO? The RUSI Journal, 160(5), 50–57.
Glaser, C. L. (1997). The security dilemma revisited. World Politics, 50(1), 171–201.
Häggman, B. (2021). Nordic Cooperation: Past, Present and Future. Nordic Council of Ministers.
Holsti, P, Hopmann, T and Sullivan, J.D. (1972). Unity and disintegration in international alliances: comparative studies New York: John Wiley & Sons, p. 3.
Jakobsen, P. V., & Ringsmose, J. (2015). NORDEFCO: The Making of a Nordic Defence Cooperation. In Military Cooperation in Multinational Peace Operations (pp. 111–130). Palgrave Macmillan.
Jakobson, L. (2022). Nordic security cooperation in a new era. Finnish Institute of International Affairs Report.
Liska, G. (1962). Nations in alliance: the limits of interdependence, Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 3.
Liska, G. (1962). Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence. Johns Hopkins Press.
Modelski, G. (1963). The study of alliances: A review, journal of conflict resolution, Vol. 7, No. 4 p. 775.
Moore, C. (2023). Security Networking in Northern Europe: The Case of JEF and Bilateral Agreements. RUSI Journal, 168(2), 145–158.
Morgenthau Hans J. (1959): „Alliances in Theory and Practice“, In: Wolfers (1959): Alliance Policy in the Cold War, Baltimore, pp. 184–212.
Morgenthau, H. J. (1973). Politics among Nations: the Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Knopf, 5th edn.
Mouritzen, H., & Wivel, A. (2022). Explaining Foreign Policy: International Diplomacy and the Nordic Balance. Palgrave Macmillan.
NORDEFCO. (2023). Annual Report 2023. Nordic Defence Cooperation. Retrieved from https://www.nordefco.org/
NORDEFCO. (n.d.). Nordic Defence Cooperation. Retrieved from https://www.nordefco.org/
Reiter Dan (1994): “Learning, Realism, and Alliances. The Weight of the Shadow of the Past”, In: World Politics V. 46 No. 4, p. 495.
Rothstein Robert L. (1968): Alliances and Small Powers, New York.
Russian Federation. (2024). Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence (updated November 2024). Moscow: Government of Russia.
Saka, Bemshima and Muhammad Abdullahi (2020) Alliance And Coaliton In Contemporary International Relations: The Case Of U.S – South, Zamfara Journal of Politics and Development, Vol. 2, No. 2, Department of Political Science.
Saxi, H. L. (2011). Nordic defence cooperation after the cold war. Survival, 53(5), 61–76. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.603564
Snyder Glenn H. (1990): “Alliance Theory: A Neorealist First Cut”, In: Journal of International Affairs V. 44 No. 1, p. 104.
Snyder, H. Glenn (2007) Alliance Politics, Cornell University Press.
Sofka, J. R. (1998). Entangling Alliances [Review of Alliance Politics, by G. H. Snyder]. The Review of Politics, 60(4), 823–826. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1408275
Thorhallsson, B., & Bailes, A. J. K. (2017). The Nordic States and Security: Managing Change in the 21st Century. In Clingendael Institute Papers.
W. Kegley, Chales. R Wittkope, Eugene (2004) World Politics, Thomson Wadsworth.
Walt Stephen M. (1993): “Alliance”, In: The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World, ed. By Joel Krieger et al., New York/Oxford, p. 20.
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540
Walt, S. M. (1987). The origins of alliances, NY: Cornell University Press.
Wivel, A. (2013). Explaining why state X made a certain move last Tuesday: The promise and limitations of realist foreign policy analysis. Journal of International Relations and Development, 16(3), 420–425.
Wolfers Arnold (1968): “Alliances”, In: International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, ed. By David L. Sills, V. 1, pp. 268–271.