تجزيه و تحليل مکاني حداکثر بارندگي محتمل(PMP) در استان خراسان شمالي
محورهای موضوعی : علوم آبامیرحسین حلبیان 1 , مهسا راوریان 2 * , سيده مهديه تشکري هاشمي 3
1 - عضو هیئت علمی اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ايران
2 - شرکت مهندسي مشاور طوس آب، مشهد، ايران
3 - دانشگاه شهيد بهشتي تهران ايران
کلید واژه: حداکثر بارش محتمل (PMP), روش هرشفيلد, عامل فراواني, ميانيابي دروني کريجينگ,
چکیده مقاله :
ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ PMP برای طراحی سدهای با خطر بالا در مناطق جمعیتی به نحوی که شکست سد تلفات انسانی قابل توجهی را به همراه داشته باشد اهمیت پیدا می کند. علاوه براین مناطق سیلابی و سیلاب دشتهایی که تاسیسات مهمی در آن ساخته می شوند برای جلوگیری از آسیب های غیر قابل جبران به بررسی حداکثر سیلاب محتمل می پردازند. ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ PMP ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺮﺷﻔﻴﻠﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ.
در این پژوهش یکی از اهداف اساسی، تعیین توزیع بارش در مقابل سیلاب است که با استفاده از روش آماری هرشفیلد حداکثر بارش محتمل ایستگاه های معتبر استان خراسان شمالی محاسبه شده است تا برای برنامه ریزان و طراحان برای محاسبه حداکثر سیلاب محتمل فراهم آید. به منظور تعيين حداکثر بارش محتمل استان خراسان شمالي از دادههاي ثبت شده حداکثر بارندگي روزانه در 33 ايستگاه واقع در منطقه مطالعاتي طي دوره 30 ساله آماري (2020 – 1991 ميلادي) استفاده شده است. استان خراسان شمالي داراي مساحتي بالغ بر 28 هزار کيلومترمربع بوده که مقدار PMP در ايستگاههاي انتخابي استان بين 128 تا 351 ميليمتر برآورد شده است. سپس جهت تعمیم نتایج ایستگاهی و امکان محاسبه حداکثر بارش محتمل در سطح استان، نتايج محاسباتي و رسم منحنيهاي هم مقدار PMP از روش ميانيایي دروني کريجينگ استفاده و منطقه مطالعاتي پهنه بندي شده است. با توجه به شکل بدست آمده بيشترين بارش در نواحی غرب و بخش هايي از شمال و شمال شرق استان بوده و کمترين در مرکز و بخشي از شرق استان مي باشد.
The maximum possible PMP rainfall becomes important for the design of high-risk dams in populated areas in such a way that the failure of the dam will result in significant human casualties. One of the most appropriate statistical methods for calculating PMP is the Hershfield method.
One of the main goals is to determine the distribution of rainfall versus flood, which has been calculated using the statistical method of Hershfield, the maximum possible rainfall of the reliable stations of North Khorasan province, so that planners and designers can calculate the maximum possible flood. In order to determine the maximum possible rainfall in North Khorasan province, the recorded data of maximum daily rainfall in 33 stations located in the study area during the 30-year statistical period (1991-2020) has been used. North Khorasan province has an area of more than 28 thousand square kilometers, and the amount of PMP in selected stations of the province is estimated between 128 and 351 millimeters. Then, in order to generalize the station results and the possibility of calculating the maximum possible rainfall at the level of the province, the calculation results and the drawing of PMP equal value curves, using the internal median kriging method, and the study area has been zoned. According to the figure obtained, the highest rainfall is in the west and parts of the north and northeast of the province, and the lowest is in the center and part of the east of the province.
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