Spatial analysis of maximum possible rainfall (PMP) in North Khorasan province
Subject Areas : watere sciencesAmir Hossein Halabian 1 , Mahsa Ravarian 2 * , Seyedeh Mahdieh Tashakori Hashemi 3
1 - Associate professor, Department of Geography, Payam Noor University of Tehran, Iran
2 - Toossab Consulting Engineering Company, Mashhad, Iran
3 - Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Maximum Probable Precipitation (PMP), Hershfield method, frequency factor, kriging interpolation,
Abstract :
The maximum possible PMP rainfall becomes important for the design of high-risk dams in populated areas in such a way that the failure of the dam will result in significant human casualties. One of the most appropriate statistical methods for calculating PMP is the Hershfield method.
One of the main goals is to determine the distribution of rainfall versus flood, which has been calculated using the statistical method of Hershfield, the maximum possible rainfall of the reliable stations of North Khorasan province, so that planners and designers can calculate the maximum possible flood. In order to determine the maximum possible rainfall in North Khorasan province, the recorded data of maximum daily rainfall in 33 stations located in the study area during the 30-year statistical period (1991-2020) has been used. North Khorasan province has an area of more than 28 thousand square kilometers, and the amount of PMP in selected stations of the province is estimated between 128 and 351 millimeters. Then, in order to generalize the station results and the possibility of calculating the maximum possible rainfall at the level of the province, the calculation results and the drawing of PMP equal value curves, using the internal median kriging method, and the study area has been zoned. According to the figure obtained, the highest rainfall is in the west and parts of the north and northeast of the province, and the lowest is in the center and part of the east of the province.
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