بررسی رابطه کیفیت حکمرانی با امید اجتماعی در توسعه شهری (مورد مطالعه: جوانان شهر بوشهر)
محورهای موضوعی : توسعه پایدار شهریمحمد مشایخی 1 , غلامرضا جعفری نیا 2 * , حبیب پاسالارزاده 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جامعه شناسی، واحد بوشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بوشهر، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه جامعه شناسی، واحد بوشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بوشهر، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه جامعه شناسی، واحد بوشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بوشهر، ایران
کلید واژه: امید اجتماعی, امید به آینده, کیفیت حکمرانی, حکمرانی خوب, اعتماد نهادی,
چکیده مقاله :
شهرنشینی یکی از امیدوارکننده‌ترین فرصت‌ها برای توسعه اجتماعی، اقتصادی از طریق صنعتی‌سازی و مدرن‌سازی در سراسر جهان است. یکی از مسائل اجتماعی شهرنشینی در شرایط کنونی جامعه ایرانی، مسئله امید اجتماعی در میان نسل جوان است. امید اجتماعی از عناصر اصلی توسعۀ جوامع است که خلق آن مستلزم قابلیتها و شرایطی است که از طریق عملکرد کارآمد نهادهای حکمرانی در جامعه برساخته می‌شود. در این راستا بر اساس نظریه‌ها و پژوهش‌های انجام شدۀ داخلی و خارجی مدلی نظری طراحی گردید. بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی رابطه کیفیت حکمرانی با امید اجتماعی از نوع کاربردی و با رویکرد کمی و به روش پیمایشی اجرا شده است. جامعه پژوهش شامل جوانان 20 تا 35 سال شهر بوشهر بودند که بر اساس روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی طبقه‌ای، تعداد 385 نفر به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار پژوهش پرسشنامه بود که پایایی آن به روش پایایی مرکب و آزمون آلفای کرونباخ، و روایی آن با تأیید خبرگان به روش روایی واگرا و همگرا تأیید شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از تحلیل رگرسیون خطی چندگانه به روش ورودی و از نرم‌افزار spss استفاده گردید. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان داد که چون مقدار معناداری برابر (00/0) کوچکتر از 05/0 است و مقدار آماره F برابر(81/62) است، پس مدل رگرسیونی برازش داده شده معنادار است. همچنین ابعاد پنج‌گانه متغیر مستقل کیفیت حکمرانی در مدل پژوهش 45 درصد از تغییرات امید اجتماعی جوانان شهر بوشهر را تبیین می‌کنند.
Urbanization is one of the most promising opportunities for social and economic development through industrialization and modernization around the world. One of the social issues of urbanization in the current situation of Iranian society is the issue of social hope among the young generation. Social hope is one of the main elements in the development of societies, the creation of which requires capabilities and conditions that are built through the efficient functioning of governing institutions in society. In this regard, a theoretical model was designed based on internal and external theories and researches. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the relationship between governance quality and social hope of an applied type with a quantitative approach and a survey method. The study population consisted of young people aged 20 to 35 years in Bushehr city who were selected as a sample based on stratified random sampling method. The research tool was a questionnaire whose reliability was confirmed by combined reliability and Cronbach's alpha test, and its validity was confirmed by experts by divergent and convergent validity. For data analysis, multiple linear regression analysis by input method and SPSS software was used. The obtained results showed that because the significance value is equal to (0.00) less than 0.05 and the value of F statistic is equal to (62.81), then the fitted regression model is significant. Also, the five dimensions of the independent variable of governance quality in the research model explain 45% of the changes in the social hope of the youth of Bushehr city.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The development perspective of any country is directly related to the hope for the future of the youth of that society, because one of the main sources of growth and development of any society is the youth. Increasing hope in young people will lead to dynamism and vitality, social satisfaction and participation and their responsibility in the process of future development of urban society. When it comes to social hope, what explains the concept of hope most is the context of the social sciences. Because hope, like any other phenomenon, is formed in a social context and is influenced by the structures and institutions within society. Accordingly, hope is a concept that is created in a time process and the lived experience of human beings, as an objective and structural external reality, is effective in their perception of their situation and their society (Malmir et al., 2019). With this approach, social hope is a reality that depends on the social, political, economic and cultural capacities of society. Examining related research, it was found that social hope in Iranian society is in a problematic situation. Looking at the current situation in the country, it can be seen that the society is not in a favorable and satisfactory situation. Imbalance in household incomes and expenditures, high unemployment of educated people, closure of factories and workshops and unemployment of workers, prevalence of consumerism, non-productive economy and rent, lack of free flow of information, disability of the private sector, lack of efficient social security system, various international sanctions. Increasing social harms such as addiction, divorce and moral restraint, inefficiency of the general management system of society, etc. has reduced confidence and confidence in the future and weakened social hope in Iranian society (Asl Zaeem, 2019: 530).
In this study, based on the institutional approach, the issue of social hope with respect to the type of current issues and problems in Iranian society, which is more than the type of governance, has been studied in relation to the quality of government governance. The concept of the quality of governance means the efficient functioning of the governing body and how policy-making, decision-making and the exercise of power in the implementation of laws by the government in various political, social, economic and cultural dimensions is equivalent to the theory of good governance of the World Bank.
With this description, the city of Bushehr, following the general situation of social hope in the country, in order to get out of this problematic situation, needs the need for research in this field, so that before it is possible to solve the problem, think and make policy in this field. Therefore, considering the importance of the role of this city in the policy development process of the country and also the strategic position resulting from its political, social and economic capabilities, the present study can pave the way for better understanding, production of applied knowledge and institutional and sociological solutions to solve hope reduction problem. Be the youth of this city. If this issue is ignored, failure to resolve it may lead to frustration, despair, dissatisfaction and deep distrust of the young community in the governing body. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the quality of governance and the social hope of the youth of Bushehr seeks an answer to the question: What is the relationship between the quality of governance and the social hope of young people aged 20 to 35 in Bushehr?
Methodology
This research is applied in terms of survey nature. The statistical population of the study is 20 to 35 years old youth in Bushehr in 2020. In this study, random stratified sampling method proportional to volume was used and to determine the sample size, Cochran's formula was used at 95% confidence level and 5% error. The sample size was 382 people. And for more accuracy, 385 people were selected as a sample. The required data collection tool is a questionnaire. SPSS software was used for descriptive and inferential analysis of data and linear regression model analysis was used to confirm the model. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed as a formal validity with the benefit of experts after the necessary corrections. Cronbach's alpha coefficient and combined reliability were used to measure the reliability coefficient and ensure internal consistency between variables and items. According to Table 1, the values of these two coefficients for all research variables were above 0.7, which indicates the confirmation of the reliability of the measurement tool.
Results and discussion
The results show that for each unit of standard deviation added, the rule of law variable will be added to the dependent variable of social hope by 0.401 standard deviation. Therefore, the rule of law variable has been the most important variable affecting social hope. The quality variable of regulations is in the next order, which for each unit added to its standard deviation, will be added to the social hope variable of 0.247 standard deviation. Effectiveness and efficiency variable The third variable affecting social hope, which was standardized with a standardized regression coefficient of 0.80, was another influential variable. The variables of opinion and response with a standardized regression coefficient of 0.125 had a positive and significant effect on social hope. It should be noted that the coefficient of the corruption control component in the amount of (- 0.082) indicates the negative role of this component in explaining the dependent variable of social hope. All estimated coefficients have been confirmed with more than 95% confidence and the coefficient of corruption control component has been confirmed at a significance level of 90%. As a result, it can be said that the research regression model, consisting of five independent variables and one dependent variable, is a suitable model and a set of independent variables can explain 45% of the changes in social hope of Bushehr youth.
Conclusion
Social hope is a capacity arising from the capabilities, political, social, economic and cultural structures and structures in a society that can lead to the growth and dynamism of any society. Social hope is a relational process, that is, it is produced in communication and calling, in other words, in a cyclical relation. In other words, the way of evaluating the conditions of society affects a person's attitude, which in turn motivates him and changes the way a person perceives the situation, the same understanding of the situation and conditions of society, the basis of his hope or disappointment with The trend becomes the future. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the quality of governance and social hope among young people aged 20 to 35 in Bushehr. The conceptual model of the research, which assumed the relationship between the dimensions of the independent variable quality of governance and social hope, was not realized with Rothstein's theory of experiences of individuals in relation to the efficiency and justice of institutions in producing hope, and with Richard Rorty's theory. The hopeful slogans in society, or in other words, in Rorty's view, are "failed prophecies," and in addition to Ghassan Hedge's view that we live by thinking of better realities in the future, and the government's performance in producing and distributing hope unequally between different groups. , Causes frustration for the future, is consistent.
Regression analysis of the relationship between five indicators of governance quality (rule of law, right to comment and accountability, government efficiency and effectiveness, control of corruption and quality of regulations) with social hope showed that the research model is a good model to explain changes in social hope among Bushehr youth. The sum of independent variables can explain 45% of the changes in the social hope of the youth of Bushehr. But what can be deduced from the analysis of the results of the research findings is that if the indicators of good governance in the performance of government and governing institutions are properly observed in society, it will build trust in the government among young people and increase their hope for the future. Existing economic, social, cultural and political capacities. Certainly a society plagued by poverty, unemployment, inflation, embezzlement, and various social problems cannot hope for a better future than it does now. Hopeful society is therefore a society whose institutions create the appropriate capacities to generate social hope among different groups of society.
1. Abdollahi, A. (2020). Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Hope for the Future in Tehran. Iranian Population Studies, 6(1), 315-342. doi: 10.22034/jips.2020.240642.1068 6 [In Persian]
2. Amirpanahi, M., Malmir, M., & Shokriani, M. (2016). The Status of Social Hope in Iran (Secondary Analysis of Social, Cultural and Moral Surveys). In this research, the unit of analysis is. Journal of Social Work Research, 3(9), 79-106. doi: 10.22054/rjsw.2016.9257 [In Persian]
3. Aronson, R. (2017). We: Reviving Social Hope. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226334837
4. Asl Zaeem, M. (2019). Social Hope and Transformation of Understanding Change among Iranians. In: Social Hope, What, Status and Etiology, Hadi Khaniki et al. Tehran: Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies, in collaboration with Rahman Institute, first edition, 527-550 [In Persian]
5. Azimi, M., Ebrahimi, M., & Jafari, F. (2019). What is social hope and its measurement criteria: A case study in Tehran. In: Social Hope, What, Status and Etiology, Hadi Khaniki et al. Tehran: Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies Publications in collaboration with Rahman Institute, first edition, 157-173 [In Persian]
6. Bryant, J., & Ellard, J. (2015). Hope as a form of agency in the future thinking of disenfranchised young people. Journal of Youth Studies, 18(4), 485–499. https://doi.org/10.1080/13676261.2014.992310
7. Cook, J., & Cuervo, H. (2019). Agency, futurity and representation: Conceptualising hope in recent sociological work. The Sociological Review, 67(5), 1102-1117. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038026119859177
8. Fazeli, N. (2016). The issue of social hope in contemporary Iran (what role does social hope play in the lives of Iranians). Retrieved July 2020, from http://www.ion.ir/news/144355 [In Persian]
9. Yuji, G. (2016). An International Comparison of Hope and Happiness in Japan, the UK, and the US. Social Science Japan Journal, 19(2), 153–172. https://doi.org/10.1093/ssjj/jyw024
10. Hage, G. (2003). Searching for hope in a shrinking society. Sydney: Pluto Press. https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/items/27ad226e-ccb0-4be3-a08f-642a13af8280
11. Hage, G., & Papadopoulos, D. (2004). Migration, hope and the making of subjectivity in transnational capitalism. International journal of critical Psychology, 12, 107-121. https://www.academia.edu/1993181/Migrationhope_and_the_making_of_subjectivity_in_transnational_capitalism
12. Haidarpour, H., & Bezi Tanha, J. (2019). Guaranteeing Citizenship Rights in a Citizen-Oriented Political System and Establishing the Components of Social Welfare and Hope. In: Social Hope, What, Status and Etiology, Hadi Khaniki et al. Tehran: Publications of the Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies in collaboration with the Rahman Institute, first edition, 455-465 [In Persian]
13. Jameel, A., Asif, M., & Hussain, A. (2019). Good Governance and Public Trust: Assessing the Mediating Effect of E-Government in Pakistan. Lex Localis Journal of Local Self Government, 17(2), 299–320. https://doi.org/10.4335/17.2.299-320
14. Janadaleh, A. (2019). Social Hope and the Responsibility of Historical Sociology: A Discourse on the Relationship between Historical Narratives and the Rise of the Problem of Hope. In: Social Hope; What, status and etiology, by Hadi Khaniki, Tehran: Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies in collaboration with Rahman Institute, 491-509 [In Persian]
15. Jin, B., & Kim, Y. (2019). Rainbows in the society: A measure of hope for society. Asian Journal of Social Psychology, 22(1), 18–27. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajsp.12339
16. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: A Summary of Methodology, Data and Analytical Issues. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5430, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1682130
17. Krafft, A. M., Perrig Chiello, P., & Walker, A. M. (Eds.). (2018). Hope for a Good Life: Results of the Hope Barometer International Research Programme. Switzerland: Springer, 215. DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-78470-0
18. Madani Ghahfarkhi, S. (2019). From individual hope to social hope: Understanding the concept of hope. In: The Book of Social Hope, What It Is, Status and Etiology. Tehran: Cultural and Social Research Institute and Rahman Institute, 26-32 [In Persian]
19. Malmir, M., Amirpanahi, M., & Shokriani, M. (2019). The situation of social hope in the provinces of the country: the current and future situation in Iran. In: Social Hope, What, Status and Etiology, Hadi Khaniki et al. Tehran: Cultural and Social Studies Research Institute Publications in collaboration with Rahman Institute, first edition, 243-258 [In Persian]
20. Mojahedi, MM. (2019). Culturalism in conflict with the politics of hope. In: social hope, what it is, status and etiology. Hadi Khaniki et al., Tehran: Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies in collaboration with Rahman Institute, first edition, 331-359 [In Persian]
21. Morgan, M. (2016). The responsibility for social hope. Thesis Eleven, 136(1), 107-123. https://doi.org/10.1177/0725513616647574
22. Nasr Esfahani, A., Javadiyeh, Y., & Mohammad, R. (2019). Retirees' Attitudes Towards the Future: A Report on the Findings of the National Survey of Iranian Values and Attitudes. in: Social Hope, What, Status and Etiology, Hadi Khaniki et al. Tehran: Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies in collaboration with Rahman Institute, first edition, 511-525 [In Persian]
23. Pleeging, E., van Exel, J., & Burger, M. (2021). Characterizing hope: An interdisciplinary overview of the characteristics of hope. Applied Research in Quality of Life 17(1), 1-43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-021-09967-x
24. Pourezat, AA. (2014). Fundamentals of Government Management. Tehran, Samt Publications. ISBN : 9789645306951 [In Persian]
25. Rafieirad, AA., & Mohammadi, M. (2019). A study of hope for the future in adolescents in Lorestan province. In: Social hope, what, status and etiology, Hadi Khaniki et al. Tehran: Research Institute for Cultural and Social Studies Publications in collaboration with Rahman Institute, first edition, 279-259 [In Persian]
26. Rorty, R. (2015). Philosophy and Social Hope. Translated by Abdolhossein Azarang & Negar Naderi, Tehran: Ney Publishing. ISBN: 9789643127794
27. Rothstein, Bo., & Stolle, D. (2008). The State and Social Capital: An Institutional Theory of Generalized Trust. Comparative Politics. 40. 441-459. DOI:10.5129/001041508X12911362383354
28. Rothstein, Bo., & Teorell, J. (2015). Quality of Government. Elsevier, the second edition of International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences: 690-694. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.75048-3
29. Rothstein, Bo. (2014). Social Domains and the Problem of Trust. Translators: Laden Rahbari, Mahmoud Sharipour, Mohammad Fazeli, Sajjad Fattahi, Tehran: Aga. ISBN: 9789643292393
30. Saei, A., Roshan, T. (2010). Analysis of Perception of the Quality of Governance in Iran. Cultural Studies and Communication, 6(21), 167-185. https://www.sid.ir/paper/118256/fa [In Persian]
31. Tavakoli, Gh., Babaei, S., & Sajjadieh, A. (2020). Explanation and analysis of indicators of good governance in Vedja. Defense Management and Research, 19(87), 73-102. https://mdr.ihu.ac.ir/article_205605.html?lang=en [In Persian]
32. Waslekar, R, S. (2018). The World Hope Index. JYI. 34(6), 56-62. https://www.jyi.org/2018-june/2018/6/1/the-world-hope-index