ارزیابی وضعیت خشکسالی هواشناسی منطقه لارستان با استفاده از شاخص‌های خشکسالی
محورهای موضوعی : بحران های محیط زیستیسیامک پیش بین 1 * , علیرضا افسرده 2
1 - عضو هیات علمی
2 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد جهرم
کلید واژه: خشكسالي, شاخص‌های خشکسالی, لارستان, هواشناسی,
چکیده مقاله :
Introduction: The purpose of this research is to investigate the meteorological drought situation by comparing the drought indicators and providing a solution to minimize the damage caused by it in Larestan city in Fars province in 2023.
Materials and Methods: The research method is descriptive-analytical with practical goals along with field operations. The population of this study was the geographical area of Larestan city, and the average rainfall and temperature were collected for a period of 14 years. In this research, using drought indicators, the relationship between them and the diagnosis of drought in the region was discussed. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Chinese Z Index (CZI), Z Number Index (ZSI) and Drought Identification Index (RDI) were calculated and compared with each other.
Results and Discussion: The research results confirmed mild to severe drought during this period. The values of SPI index equal to -1.32, RDI equal to -1.62, CZI equal to -1.21 and ZSI equal to -1.1 were obtained. In the above interval, ZSI showed the lowest sensitivity and RDI value showed the highest sensitivity in terms of drought reflection. The trends of SPI and RDI changes were very similar. According to different indicators, the frequency of drought was between 44.8 and 69% of the total number of years. The CZI and SPI indices were close to each other in each period of 3, 6, 11 and 14 years, and the ZSI index was higher than both in the same period. In terms of severity, mild droughts had a larger share and moderate and severe droughts had a smaller share. Compared to the years with minimum rainfall, the numerical value of RDI is lower than SPI, and in other words, it shows a negative value and greater drought intensity. With the increase in the amount of precipitation in mild to high wet years, the numerical value of RDI became higher than SPI, and it indicates the greater sensitivity of this index to environmental conditions, especially temperature.
Conclusion: According to the evaluation of the above indicators, it can be concluded that the drought occurred in the above region and the possibility of its continuation and increase in severity is possible due to the decrease in rainfall at the end of the studied years. Therefore, paying attention to the proper management of water consumption in agriculture and reducing the consequences of drought in the development of this region is necessary and requires planning and implementation of preventive measures and determining the pattern of correct water consumption in dealing with the phenomenon of drought and developing sustainable agriculture and preserving the environment. This importance requires the use of sufficient technical knowledge in predicting drought and the ability to deal with it in the coming years due to the occurrence of the trend of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature in the region.
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