طراحی مدل پویا بازارهای مالی ایران با استفاده از پویایی شناسی سیستم
محورهای موضوعی : حسابداری مدیریتمعصومه میرزایی نژاد لیمویی 1 , رضا رادفر 2 , میرفیض فلاح 3 , کیامرث فتحی هفشجانی 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی گرایش مالی ، گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد ،واحد علوم و تحقیقات ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،تهران،
2 - استاد تمام عضو هیات علمی گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد ،واحد علوم و تحقیقات ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران، ایران.(نویسنده مسئول)
3 - دانشیار، گروه مدیریت مالی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،واحد تهران مرکزی ، ایران
4 - استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی ، دانشکده مدیریت، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران ، ایران
کلید واژه: پویایی بازارهای مالی ایران, سرمایه‌گذاری, پویایی‌شناسی سیستم, سیاست‌های توسعه بازارهای مالی,
چکیده مقاله :
بررسی شاخص های کلان و سطح توسعه یافتگی اقتصاد نشان از ناکارامدی بازارهای مالی دارد. بخش محدودی از تولید ناخالص داخلی به سرمایه گذاری در تولید کالا و خدمات اختصاص یافته و بخش قابل توجهی از آن جذب فعالیت های سوداگرانه در بازارهای مالی غیرمولد می شود. پژوهش حاضر به مدل سازی عملکرد بازارهای مالی با استفاده از پویایی سیستم پرداخته است. برای این منظور ابتدا با استفاده از داده های بازارهای مالی طلا، زمین و ساختمان، بازار سرمایه، سپرده گذاری در بانک، پویایی بازارها و پیامدهای مالی ناشی از سرمایه گذاری در بازارها بررسی گردید. مدل پویایی بازارهای مالی طراحی و پس از اعتبارسنجی مدل، شبیه سازی در افق ده ساله (1398-1408) انجام شد. با توجه به رفتار متغیرها و تحلیل حساسیت مدل، سیاست های توسعه بازارهای مالی شامل "توسعه بازار سرمایه"، "سیاست پولی کاهش نقدینگی"،"ساماندهی بازار زمین و ساختمان" و "ساماندهی بازار طلا " شناسایی و به صورت جداگانه روی مدل اعمال شد و نتایج مقایسه و رفتار تحلیل گردید. با توجه به یافته های مدل، سیاست های ترکیبی به عنوان بهترین سیاست های توسعه بازارهای مالی مولد مبتنی بر پویایی بازارهای مالی ایران ارائه شده است.
Examination of macro indicators and the level of economic development shows the inefficiency of financial markets. A limited portion of GDP is devoted to investing in the production of goods and services, and a significant portion of it is absorbed in speculative activities in unproductive financial markets. The present study has modeled the performance of financial markets using system dynamics. For this purpose, first using the financial markets data of gold, land and construction, capital market, bank deposits, market dynamics and financial consequences of investing in markets were examined. The financial markets dynamics model was designed and after model validation, simulation was performed on a ten-year horizon (1408-1398). According to the behavior of variables and model sensitivity analysis, financial market development policies including "capital market development", "liquidity reduction monetary policy", "land and building market organization" and "gold market organization" are identified and identified separately. The model was applied and the results of comparison and behavior were analyzed. According to the model findings, hybrid policies have been presented as the best policies for the development of productive financial markets based on the dynamics of Iran's financial markets.
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