مدلسازی حافظه بلندمدت و تغییرات رژیم بازده بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و اثرات نامتقارن شوک‌های بازار نفت بر روی آن
محورهای موضوعی : دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادارمجتبی الماسی 1 , علی فلاحتی 2 , شهرام فتاحی 3 , علیرضا رستمی 4
1 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی ، کرمانشاه، ایران
2 - دانشیار دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی ، کرمانشاه، ایران
3 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی ، کرمانشاه، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه رازی ، کرمانشاه، ایران
کلید واژه: شوک های بازار نفت, انتقال رژیم, حافظه بلندمدت,
چکیده مقاله :
در این پژوهش با ارائه مدلی کاملاً جدید در سطح ملی و بین المللی، چارچوبی کاربردی برای تعیین دقیق شوک‌های بازارهای خارجی بر بازده قیمت سهام فراهم شده است؛ به طوریکه با استفاده از داده های ماهیانه سال های 1377 تا 1396 و مدل GARCH آستانه انباشته ی کسری راه گزینی مارکوف (MS-FITGARCH) سعی در بررسی شوک‌های قیمت نفت بر روی بازده بازار سهام و مدلسازی جامع ویژگی های واریانس ناهمسان، اثر اهرمی، خوشه‌ای بودن تلاطم‌ها، حافظه بلندمدت در چارچوب رژیم های مختلف رکود و رونق بازده بازار سهام شده است. به‌علاوه مدل همبستگی شرطی پویای GARCH آستانه انباشته ی (DCC-FITGARCH) جهت بررسی ارتباط نوسانات بازار نفت و بورس اوراق بهادار مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. نتایج تحقیق حاضر بیانگر معنادار بودن ضرایب مدل و لزوم استفاده از مدل معرفی شده در تحقیق در جهت مدلسازی بازده نوسانات بورس اوراق بهادار تهران دارد. بر اساس نتایج رژیم یک وضعیت های رکود و رژیم دو وضعیت های رونق در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران را تسخیر می کند. نتایج مدل MS-FITGARCH بیانگر اثر مثبت معنادار شوک‌های قیمت نفت تنها بر روی میانگین بازده بورس در رژیم های رونق دارد، به‌طوری‌که اثرات فوق در رژیم رکود معنادار نیست. همچنین نتایج مدل DCC-FITGARCH در تطابق با مدل اول قرار داشته و بیانگر همبستگی شرطی مثبت قوی‌تر نوسانات بازار سهام و بازار نفت در دوره های رونق اقتصادی است.
In this research, by presenting a completely new model at the national and international levels, a practical framework for accurately determining the shocks of foreign markets on stock returns has been provided; so that, using monthly data from 1998 to 2017 and the Markov Switching Fractionally Integrated Threshold GARCH (MS-FITGARCH) model attempts to investigate the oil price shocks on stock market returns and the comprehensive modeling of Heteroscedasticity characteristics, leverage effect, Volatility clustering, and long-term memory in the framework of various recession and expansion regimes of the stock market returns. In addition, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Fractionally Integrated Threshold GARCH (DCC-FITGARCH) model has been used to investigate the relationship between oil market and stock market fluctuations. The results of this study indicate the significance of the model's coefficients and the necessity of using the model introduced in the research to model the fluctuations of Tehran Stock Exchange. Based on the results, the regime one capture the recession conditions and the regime two capture the expansion conditions of Tehran Stock Exchange. The results of the MS-FITGARCH model indicate a significant positive effect of oil price shocks on the stock return average in the expansion regimes, so that the effects in the recession regime are not significant. Also, the results of the DCC-FITGARCH model are in line with the first model and represent a more positive conditional correlation between the fluctuations of the stock market and the oil market during the expansion economic periods.
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