نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی و بازار سهام ایران با تکیه بر رویکرد تغییر رژیمی مارکف
محورهای موضوعی : دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار
حسین امیری
1
(استادیار، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران)
محبوبه پیرداده بیرانوند
2
(دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: بازده سهام, نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی, مدل مارکف سوئیچینگ,
چکیده مقاله :
از جمله عواملی که سرمایه گذاران در تصمیم گیری های خود مد نظر قرار می دهند، نرخ بازده سهام است. دستیابی به این بازده در شرایطی امکان پذیر است که ثبات اقتصادی وجود داشته باشد. یکی از جنبه های ثبات اقتصادی، ثبات سیاست های اقتصادی است که نقش مهمی در اقتصاد کشور ایفا می کند. به گونه ای که اگر نااطمینانی نسبت به سیاست های اقتصادی وجود داشته باشد، این نااطمینانی موجب نااطمینانی فعالان اقتصادی نسبت به تحولات آینده ی اقتصاد خواهد شد و به دنبال آن صاحبان سرمایه دیگر قادر به تصمیم گیری برای آینده از جمله سرمایه گذاری نبوده و بازار پول و بازار سرمایه با مشکل مواجه خواهد شد. در این مقاله اثر نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی بر بازده بازار سهام با استفاده از مدل های خطی و غیرخطی (مارکف سوئیچینگ) طی دوره زمانی 1395-1360 بررسی شده است. در پژوهش فوق از متغیرهای نرخ رشد اقتصادی، نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، نرخ سود حقیقی، نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی و نرخ رشد نقدینگی به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل استفاده می شود. یافته های مقاله نشان می دهد که نااطمینانی در سیاست های اقتصادی موجب کاهش بازده بازار سهام می شود. همچنین ارتباط بین بازده بازار سهام و نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی غیرخطی و اثر نااطمینانی بر بازده سهام در رژیم با نوسانات بالا قوی تر و پایدارتر است. لذا اتخاذ سیاست های مناسب و پایدار اقتصادی از سوی سیاستگذاران اقتصادی به ویژه در حوزه پولی و مالی توصیه می شود.
One of the factors that investors consider in their decisions is the return on equity. Achieving this return is possible in a situation where economic stability exists. One of the aspects of economic stability is the stability of economic policies that plays an important role in the economy of the country. So, if there is uncertainty about economic policies, this uncertainty will unconscious of the economic activists towards future economic developments, and the subsequent owners of the capital will be able to make decisions for the future, including capital and the money market and the capital market will be in trouble. Considering the importance of the issue in this paper, using the Markov Switching Model and applying annual data, we investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the return on Iranian stock market during the period of 1981-2016. In this research, the variables of economic growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and liquidity growth rate are used as independent variables. In order to measure economic policy uncertainty, exchange rate fluctuations and government budget deficits are also used. The findings of the paper show that dynamic communication of uncertainty in economic policies and stock market returns is always negative, as the increase in uncertainty in economic policies significantly reduces capital market returns. Also, the relation between stock market returns and the uncertainty of nonlinear economic policies and the uncertainty about the return on capital during a period of high-fluctuation diet is stronger and more stable.
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