سیاست¬های حمایت کشاورزی و مسیر چرخه¬ای تکاملی رشد اقتصادی کشاورزی ایران
نرگس توکلی دستجردی
1
(
دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
)
حمید محمدی
2
(
استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
)
آیت اله کرمی
3
(
استاد گروه مدیریت توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران
)
کوروش جوادی پاشاکی
4
(
دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی و استاد مدعو، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شهریار، تهران، ایران
)
علیرضا سرگزی
5
(
استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
)
کلید واژه: توسعه کشاورزی, چرخه اقتصاد کشاورزی, سیاست¬های کشاورزی,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: سیاستهای حمایتی دولت نقش کلیدی در توسعه اقتصادی، اشتغالزایی و افزایش رقابتپذیری بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی ایفا میکند. به دلیل ماهیت ضعیف تولیدات کشاورزی، دولتها معمولاً سیاستهای حمایتی را برای حفظ امنیت غذایی اتخاذ میکنند. دولتها با فراهمسازی مشوقهای مالی و قانونی، میتوانند به کاهش ریسکهای اقتصادی کمک کنند و بستری امنتر و جذابتر برای سرمایهگذاران فراهم آورند.
روششناسی: این مطالعه برای تشخیص رشد کشاورزی از سال 2001 تا 2018 تحت سیاستهای حمایتی کشاورزی ایران، از مدل غیرخطی MS(M)-AR(p) استفاده می‌شود تا چرخه اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران را به سه رژیم رشد سریع، متوسط و پایین متمایز شود. و احتمال جابجایی و نگهداری در بین رژیمهای مختلف بررسی کنیم. ما بیشتر میانگین مدت هر رژیم را محاسبه کردیم. علاوه بر این، ما انتقال رژیم رشد را برای زمان‌های خاص محاسبه کردیم.
یافتهها: براساس نتایج حاصله در این مطالعه، متوجه می‌شویم که اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران با حمایت از سیاستهای کشاورزی فعال ایران، روند رشد نسبتاً ثابتی را حفظ کرده است. با این حال، اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران در درازمدت تمایل به حفظ وضعیت رشد پایین دارد.
نتیجهگیری و بحث: ما بر اساس یافته‌های خود توصیه‌هایی برای توسعه کشاورزی ارائه می‌کنیم که سیاستهای کشاورزی موجود را ادامه می‌دهد و حمایت از کشاورزی، جنگل‌داری و دامداری را تقویت میکند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
Introduction: Government support policies play a key role in economic development, job creation, and increasing the competitiveness of various economic sectors. Due to the fragile nature of agricultural production, governments usually adopt support policies to maintain food security. By providing financial and legal incentives, governments can help reduce economic risks and create a safer and more attractive environment for investors.
Methodology: This study uses the nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p) model to identify agricultural growth from 2001 to 2018 under Iran’s agricultural support policies to distinguish the Iranian agricultural economic cycle into three fast, medium, and low growth regimes. And to examine the probability of shifting and maintaining between different regimes. We further calculated the average duration of each regime. In addition, we calculated the growth regime transition for specific times.
Findings: Based on the results of this study, we find that Iran’s agricultural economy has maintained a relatively stable growth trend, supported by Iran’s proactive agricultural policies. However, Iran’s agricultural economy tends to maintain a low growth status in the long run.
Conclusion and Discussion: Based on our findings, we provide recommendations for agricultural development that continue existing agricultural policies and strengthen support for agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry.
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