تحلیل مکانی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد زعفران (مطالعه موردی شهرستان‌های استان خراسان رضوی، شمالی و جنوبی)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

منصوره وفائی ¹ , سامان ضیائی ² , حمید محمدی ³ , محمود احمدپور ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
4 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/09/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/02/27 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/05/01

کلید واژه: زعفران, تغییرات اقلیم, رهیافت ریکاردین, سنجی فضایی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه وهدف:از آنجا که امنیت غذایی انسان­ها و تغییر اقلیم به­عنوان مهم­ترین موضوع­ها در سطح جهان مطرح خواهد بود و با توجه به اهمیت روز افزون اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولیدات محصولات کشاورزی، امنیت غذایی و وابستگی میزان عملکرد  به نزولات جوی، هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای اقلیمی چون دما، بارندگی، نهاده­های مصرفی کود و پیاز بر عملکرد زعفران در  شهرستان­های استان خراسان رضوی، شمالی و جنوبی طی سال­های 1398-1380 است.
 مواد و روش ها: بدین منظور با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین و مدل خود توضیح مکانی (SAR) تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی در سه اقلیم گرم و خشک، معتدل و سرد در استان­های مذکور بررسی گردید.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: نتایج حاصل از مدل در سه اقلیم نشان داد که میزان بارندگی، کود و پیاز برخلاف دما بر عملکرد زعفران تأثیر مثبت و معنی­داری دارد و معنی­دار بودن ضریب وقفه مکانی متغیر وابسته، وجود اثرات مکانی را تأیید می­کند. با توجه به نتایج که درجه حرارت بالا،  کاهش بارندگی و کاهش عملکرد زعفران در دوره­های آتی می­باشد. باید از ارقام محصول که مقاومت بیشتری در برابر خشکسالی و گرما دارند استفاده شود و کشاورزان خود را با شرایط آب و هوایی تطبیق دهند  تا عوامل جوی خسارت کمتری را به محصول زعفران وارد نمایند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Due to the importance of climate change on agricultural production and the dependence of yield on rainfall, the purpose of this article is to investigate effect of climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, fertilizer and onion inputs on saffron yield in cities of Khorasan provinces during the years 1398-1380. For this purpose, using Ricardin model and mixed spatial autoregressive model (SAR), the effect of climate change in three climates: hot and dry, temperate and cold in the mentioned provinces was investigated. The results of the model in three climates showed that the amount of rainfall, fertilizer and onion, contrary to temperature, have a positive and significant effect on saffron yield and the significance of the spatial interruption coefficient of the dependent variable confirms the existence of spatial effects. According to the results of this study, it is necessary to increase the serious events of high temperature and decrease rainfall and reduce the yield of saffron in future periods and the undeniable role of saffron in livelihood, employment and income generation of farmers in the region.

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