تاب آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

رضا شاکری بستان آباد ¹ , محمد رضا مهدیار اسماعیلی ² , محسن صالحی کمرودی ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری، اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران.
2 - استادیار، پژوهشکده مدیریت و برنامه‎ریزی، دانشگاه امام حسین (ع).
3 - دکتری، اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز.

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/01/14 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/19 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/11/01

کلید واژه: شاخص ترکیبی, بخش کشاورزی ایران, تاب آوری اقتصادی, روش تحلیل چندمعیاره, شاخص اسپیرمن-شانون,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: تاب‌آوری اقتصادی از مولفه‌های مهم اقتصاد مقاومتی است که در شرایط تحریم اقتصادی اهمیت مضاعفی پیدا می‌کند. با توجه به اهمیت بخش کشاورزی در تأمین امنیت غذایی، تاب‌آوری اقتصادی این بخش نقش مهمی را در رسیدن به اهداف اقتصاد مقاوتی دارد. از این رو هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تاب­آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی ایران طی سال­های 1394-1379است. مواد و روش­ها: بدین منظور از شاخص­های تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی، تمرکز صادرات، درجه باز بودن اقتصاد، نسبت ستانده بخش کشاورزی به مصرف واسطه، بی­ثباتی درآمد بخش کشاورزی، ضریب خوداتکایی، شاخص توسعه انسانی و شاخص­های حکمرانی خوب استفاده شد. برای ساخت شاخص ترکیبی تاب­آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی از روش­های تاپسیس، تاکسونومی معمولی، تاکسونومی وزنی و میانگین وزنی استفاده شد. یافته­ها: نتایج آن­ها با ضریب تغییرات، ضریب همبستگی و شاخص اسپیرمن-شانون مقایسه گردید. بر اساس نتایج، تاب­آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی در دوره مورد مطالعه کاهش یافته است و شاخص بی­ثباتی درآمد بخش کشاورزی، تمرکز صادرات، کنترل فساد و تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی بیشترین اهمیت را در تعیین تاب­آوری اقتصادی این بخش دارد. بحث و نتیجه­گیری: از این­رو روش‌های مدیریت ریسک مانند متنوع‌سازی درآمد بخش کشاورزی، بیمه کشاورزی، تنوع مقاصد صادراتی، گسترش بازارهای هدف، تنوع­بخشی در صادرات کالاها، ثبات سیاست‌ها و ثبات اقتصاد کلان باید با تاکید بیشتری در دستور کار سیاست­گذاران این بخش قرار بگیرد. طبقه­بندی JEL: C43,O13,Q18.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Economic resilience is one of the important components of the resistance economy. Especially in terms of economic sanctions and given the importance of the agricultural sector in food security, the economic resilience of this sector becomes more important. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic resilience of Iran's agricultural sector during the years 2000-2015.
Materials and Methods: For this purpose, the indicators of the concentration of export markets, export concentration, openness of the economy, output ratio of agricultural sector to intermediate consumption, income instability of agricultural sector, self-sufficiency coefficient, human development index and good governance indicators were used. To generate the combined index of economic viability of agricultural sector, methods of TOPSIS, taxonomy, weight taxonomy and weighted average were used and their results were compared by using coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient and Spearman-Shannon index.
Findings: Based on the results, the economic Resilience of the agricultural sector has decreased during the study period and the index of instability of agricultural income, export concentration, corruption control and market efficiency are most important in determining the economic resilience of this sector.
Conclusion: Therefore, risk management methods such as agricultural income diversification, agricultural insurance, the diversification of export targets, the expansion of target markets, diversification into commodity exports, stability of policies and macroeconomic stability should be further emphasized on the agenda of policy makers in this sector.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Abdi J, Gilak Hakim Abadi M. A Comparison of Economic Vulnerability in Iran with Other Middle-Income Selected Countries. Economics Research. 2017; 17(66): 179-200. doi: 10.22054/joer.2017.8206.


2. Abdullahzadeh Gh, Sharifzadeh M, Trahomi B. Comparison of aggregation methods for constructing a composite index of regional development. Regional Urban Studies and Research, 2015; 7 (27): 1-20. https://urs.ui.ac.ir/article_20150.html


3. Abounoori E, Lajevardi H. Estimated the Index of Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Using Parametric Method: The Case of. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2016; 3(3): 25-44. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_5434.html


4. Amiri H, Pirdadeh Beyranvand M, Norouzi F, Alizadeh Sh. Estimation Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators in Iran Economy. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies. 2018; 6(22): 433-455. http://www.jmsp.ir/article_60910.html


5. Angeon V, Bates S. Reviewing composite vulnerability and resilience indexes: A sustainable approach and application. World Development. 2015;1;72:140-62.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.02.011


6. Annarelli A, Nonino F. Strategic and operational management of organizational resilience: Current state of research and future directions. Omega. 2016 ;1;62:1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2015.08.004


7. Audretsch DB, Lehmann E. The seven secrets of Germany: Economic resilience in an era of global turbulence. Oxford University Press; 2016. 229 p.


8. Badri S,Akbarian Ronizi S. A Comparative Study of the Application of Development Measurement Methods in Regional Studies.Geography and Development, 2006; 4: 5-22. https://gdij.usb.ac.ir/article_3797.html


9. Bahrami J, Farshchi M. The Incidence of Dutch Disease in the Agriculture Sector of Iran 1367-1386. Economics Research, 2011; 1(44): 185-211. https://joer.atu.ac.ir/article_2570.html


10. Bakhtiari S, Hagh z. Investigating the effects of increasing oil revenues on the agricultural sector, Case: Dutch disease in the Iranian economy. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2001; 9 (35): 109-138. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=9223


11. Barthel S, Isendahl C. Urban gardens, agriculture, and water management: Sources of resilience for long-term food security in cities. Ecological Economics, 2013; 86: 224-234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.06.018


12. Bates S, Angeon V, Ainouche A. The pentagon of vulnerability and resilience: A methodological proposal in development economics by using graph theory. Economic Modelling, 2014; 42: 445-453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.027


13. Baumgartner S, Strunz S. The economic insurance value of ecosystem
    resilience, Ecological Economics, 2014; 101: 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.012


14. Blackman D, Nakanishi H, Benson A. M. Disaster resilience as a complex problem: Why linearity is not applicable for long-term recovery. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017; 121: 89-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.018


15. Bonanno G. A, Romero S. A, Klein S. I. The temporal elements of psychological resilience: An integrative framework for the study of individuals, families, and communities. Psychological Inquiry, 2015; 26(2): 139-169. https://doi.org/10.1080/1047840X.2015.992677


16. Briguglio P. Exposure to external shocks and economic resilience of
    countries: evidence from global indicators. Journal of Economic Studies, 2016;
    43(6): 1057-1078. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2014-0203


17. Briguglio L, Cordina G, Farrugia N, Vella S. Economic
    Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements, Research Paper,2008;
    2008/55, UNU-WIDER. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089893


18. Briguglio L, Cordina G, Farrugia N, Vella S. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, 2009 37(3): 229-247. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089893


19. Brown L, Greenbaum R. T. The role of industrial diversity in economic resilience: An empirical examination across 35 years. Urban Studies, 2017; 54(6): 1347-1366. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015624870


20. Chopra S, Khanna V. Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2015; 436: 865-877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.05.091


21. Christopherson S, Michie J, Tyler P. Regional resilience: theoretical and
    empirical perspectives, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and
    Society,2010; 3: 3–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsq004


22. Colding J, Barthel S. The potential of Urban Green Commons in the resilience building of cities. Ecological Economics, 2013; 86: 156-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.10.016


23. Coppock D. International economic instability. McGraw-Hill Book Company.1962.


24. Cristea A. D. Buyer-seller relationships in international trade: Evidence
    from U.S. States' exports and business-class travel. Journal of International
    Economics, 2011; 84(2): 207-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.02.003


25. Di Caro P. Testing and explaining economic resilience with an application to I talian regions. Papers in Regional Science,2017; 96(1): 93-113. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12168


26. Dooley L. N, Slavich G. M, Moren, P. I, Bower J. E. Strength through adversity: Moderate lifetime stress exposure is associated with psychological resilience in breast cancer survivors. Stress and Health, 2017; 33(5): 549-557. https://doi.org/10.1002/smi.2739


27. Faryadras V. The effect of sanctions and analysis of the subsequent situation on Iran's agricultural sector. Islamic Consultative Assembly Research Center. Tehran. 2015.


28. Filipishyna L, Bessonova S, Venckeviciute G. Integral assessment of
    developmental stability: cases of Lithuania and Ukraine, Entrepreneurship
    and Sustainability Issues, 2018; 6(1): 87-99. DOI : 10.9770/jesi.2018.6.1(7)


29. Gong J, Lin H. Sustainable development for agricultural region in China: case studies. Forest Ecology and Management,2000; 128(1-2): 27-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(99)00269-8


30. Guitouni A, Martel J. M. Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method. European Journal of Operational Research,1998; 109(2): 501-521. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(98)00073-3


31. Hajimirza H, Shakeri Bostanabad R. Investigating the Effect of Good Governance Quality on Agricultural Sector Growth. Agricultural Economics Research, 2021; 12(48), 145-170. http://jae.miau.ac.ir/article_4263.html


32. Hallegatte S. Economic resilience: definition and measurement. Policy
    research working papers. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6852


33. Hill E, Wial H, Wolman H. Exploring regional economic resilience, Working Paper, No. 2008,04, University of California, Institute of Urban and Regional Development (IURD), Berkeley, CA. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/59420


34. Holling C. S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1973; 4(1): 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245


35. Hunady J, Pisar P, Musa H, Musova Z. Innovation support and economic development at the regional level: panel data evidence from Visegrad countries. Journal of International Studies, 2017; 10(3): 147-160. doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2017/10-3/11


36. Karim M, Safdarinahad M, Amjadipour M. Agricultural Development and Resistive Economy, as A Alternative to Oil Revenue. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies. 2014; 6(2): 103-127.  http://www.jmsp.ir/article_7371_en.html


37. Khosh akhlagh R, Mousavi Mohseni R. Oil shocks and the phenomenon of Dutch disease in the Iranian economy: A computable model of general equilibrium. Journal of Economic Research.2006; 77: 117-97. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_18165.html


38. Love Export instability and the domestic economy: Questions of causality. The Journal of Development Studies,1992; 28(4): 735-742. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389208422256


39. MacBean A. Export instability and economic development. Routledge.2012.


40. Mahdiyar Ismaili M, Salehi Komroudi M, Shakeri Bostanabad R. Evaluation and analysis of economic resilience indicators for single-product countries. Journal of Iran's Economic Essays, 2019; 16(32), 211-237. (DOI): 10.30471/iee.2020.5230.1743


41. Majerova I, Nevima J. The measurement of human development using the
    Ward method of cluster analysis. Journal of International Studies, 2017; 10(2):
    239-257. doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2017/10-2/17


42. MalerG. Sustainable development and resilience in ecosystems.
    Environmental and Resource Economics,2008; 39: 17-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-007-9175-7


43. Martin R, Sunley P. On the notion of regional economic resilience: conceptualization and explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, 2015; 15(1): 1-42. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu015


44. Massel F. Export instability and economic structure. The American Economic Review, 1970; 60(4): 618-630.


45. Morkūnas M, Artiom V, Yuri B, Agota G. The role of
    government in forming agricultural policy: economic resilience measuring index exploited.
    Administratie si Management Public, 2018b; 31: 111-131. DOI: 10.24818/amp/2018.31-08


46. Morkūnas M, Volkov, A, and Pazienza P. How Resistant is the
    Agricultural Sector? Economic Resilience Exploited. Economics and Sociology, 2018a; 11(3):
    321-332. doi:10.14254/2071-789X.2018/11-3/19


47. Nardo M, Paisana M, Saltelli A, Tarantola, S, Hoffman A, Giovannini E. Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user Guide. OCED Statistics Working paper 2005/3.2005.


48. Obschonka M, Stuetzer M, Audretsch D. B, Rentfrow P. J, Potter J, Gosling S. D. Macropsychological factors predict regional economic resilience during a major economic crisis. Social Psychological and Personality Science,2016; 7(2): 95-104. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550615608402


49. OECD. Handbook on constructing composite indicators:
    Methodology and user Gude. Paris. ISBN 978-92-64-04345-9.


50. Ortiz‐de‐Mandojana N, Bansal P. The long‐term benefits of organizational resilience through sustainable business practices. Strategic Management Journal,2016; 37(8): 1615-163. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2410


51. Osth J, Reggiani A, Galiazzo G. Spatial economic resilience and
    accessibility: A joint perspective Computers, Environment and Urban
    Systems,2015; 49: 148-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2014.07.007


52. Pasban f.The effect of oil price fluctuations on the production of Iran's agricultural sector (Dutch disease).Quarterly Journal of Economic Research. 2004; (1): 117-136.


53. Paton D, Johnston D. Disaster Resilience: an integrated approach, 2nd Ed., Charles C Thomas Publisher, 438 p.2017.


54. Rivza B, Kruzmetra M. Through economic growth to the viability of rural
    Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues,2017; 5(2): 283-296. DOI : 10.9770/jesi.2017.5.2(9)


55. Rose A. Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions. Environmental Hazards,2007; 7(4): 383-398. DOI: 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.10.001


56. Ruttan V. W. Productivity growth in world agriculture: sources and constraints. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2002; 16(4): 161-184. DOI: 10.1257/089533002320951028


57. Salimifar M. Nourouzi R. Motahari M. Measuring Industrial and Regional Development of Razavi, Southern and Northern Khorasan Provinces. Economics Research, 2010; 9(4): 175-196. https://joer.atu.ac.ir/article_2871.html?lang=en


58. Sameti M, Ranjbar H, Mohseni F. The Effect of Good Governance Indicators on Human Development Index: the Case of ASEAN Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research,2012; 1(4): 223-183. (In Persian). http://egdr.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_64.html?lang=en


59. Sapkota J. B., Acharya C. P., Minowa M., Neupane P. Trade integration
    in Asia: Trends and determinants. Journal of International Studies,2018; 11(3):
    271-283. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/106063


60. Sayadi Turanlu H. Zanjirchi M. Ataee Gharache M. Bank Ranking and Evaluation with Shannon Entropy Approach and Gray Relationship Analysis (Case Study: Yazd Agricultural Bank Branches), Monetary and Banking Management Development Quarterly.2015; 3 (6): 31-51.


61. Sensier M, Bristow G, Healy A. Measuring regional economic resilience across Europe: operationalizing a complex concept. Spatial Economic Analysis,2016; 11(2): 128-151. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2016.1129435


62. Shaghaghi shahri V. Measuring and Comparison of Economic Resilience of Iran with Competitor Countries in the South West Asia. Economic research and policies, 2017; 25 (83) :183-218. http://qjerp.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1434-2&sid=1&slc_lang=fa


63. Sheffi Y. The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 352 p.2005.


64. Shetty P. From food security to food and nutrition security: role of agriculture and farming systems for nutrition. Journal of Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security,2015; 109(3): 456-461. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24906100


65. Svatoš M, Smutka L, Selby R. Capital Stock Value Development in Relation to the New EU Countries’ Agricultural Sector Development. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 2015; 62(6): 1437-1450. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201462061437


66. Taghvaei M, Sheykh Beygloo R. Innovation and presentation of RALSPI model: a new method for evaluating alternatives and assessment of development level of settlements. Journal of Urban - Regional Studies and Research. 2013; 4(16): 1-22. https://urs.ui.ac.ir/article_20043.html


67. Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines & AgricultureDeputy of Economic Studies. Agriculture and the need for sustainable development in Iran.2018.


68. Tidball K, Stedman R. Positive dependency and virtuous cycles: from resource dependence to resilience in urban social-ecological systems. Ecological Economics, 2013; 86: 292-299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.10.004


69. Tudor M. M. Agriculture role in social-economic resilience to majo economic crises in Romania. In Agrarian Economy and Rural Development-Realities and Perspectives for Romania. 8th Edition of the International Symposium (pp. 175-180). Bucharest: The Research Institute for Agricultural Economy and Rural Development (ICEADR).2017.


70. Vasile O, Androniceanu A. An overview of the Romanian asylum policies.
    Sustainability, 2018; 10(5): 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051461


71. Yazdani S, Sherafatmand h. Investigating the effect of oil revenue shocks on the agricultural sector: Dutch disease test. Agricultural Economics.2011; 5(4): 68-51. http://www.iranianjae.ir/article_9486.html


72. Zhou P, Ang B. W. Comparing MCDA aggregation methods in constructing composite indicators using the Shannon-Spearman measure. Social Indicators Research,2009; 94(1): 83-96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-008-9338-0


73. Zhou P, Ang, B. W, Poh , K. L. A mathematical programming approach to constructing composite indicators. Ecological Economics,2007; 62: 291–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.12.020