ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید محصولات باغی با رویکرد تولید تصادفی مورد پژوهی : محصول خرما
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیندا علی احمدی 1 , محمود هاشمی تبار 2 , سید مهدی حسینی 3
1 - دانشکده علوم محیط زیستی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگان سیستان و بلوچستان،ایران، زاهدان
2 - استادیار دانشکده علوم زیست محیطی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،زاهدان
3 - استادیار دانشکده علوم زیست محیطی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،زاهدان
کلید واژه: کشاورزی, تغییر اقلیم, ریسک, مدل جاست و پاپ, عملکرد خرما,
چکیده مقاله :
در این مطالعه برای ارزیابی اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر عملکرد و ریسک تولید محصول خرما در ایران از پارامترهای اقلیمی در مناطق گرم و مرطوب و گرم و خشک در بازه‌ی زمانی 95-1361 استفاده شد. ق تابع تولیدتصادفی جاست و پاپ برآوردگردید. نتایج شاخص‌های دما و بارش به ترتیب برای منطقه گرم و مرطوب 45/0 و 66/0 و منطقه گرم و خشک 04/3 و 18/0 می باشد که نشان دهنده اثرگذاری منطقه‌ای هستند. تغییرات سالانه آب و هوایی،باعث ایجاد شرایط نامساعد برای کشاورزان شد. تغییرات دمای حدی سالیانه و تغییرات نامنظم بارشی در طول سال‌های گذشته و همچنین تغییر اقلیم و گرم شدن هوا در آینده می‌تواند خطرات جدی برای کاهش محصول در بخش کشاورزی در پی داشته باشد. با توجه به تغییرات نابهنگام دما و بارش در مناطق گرم و خشک و گرم و مرطوب توصیه می‌شود که به منظور کاهش ریسک عملکرد خرما در این مناطق از از ارقام مقاوم خرما نسبت به تغییرات دمایی و بارشی استفاده شود.
The most effective climatic variables were identified using Fayoucan's optimization algorithm. In order to test the effect of climate variables on yield and date risk, for each of these areas, the random production function Jost and pop was estimated. The results of temperature and precipitation indexes were for hot and humid regions (0.45 and 0.66), and hot and dry regions (3.04 and 0.18), which indicate regional impact. Annual climate change has caused bad weather for farmers. Annual temperature changes and irregular rainfall changes over the past years, as well as climate change and warming in the future, could lead to serious dangers in reducing crop yields in agriculture. Regarding the unforeseen changes in temperature and precipitation in warm, dry, warm and humid areas, it is recommended that, in order to reduce the risk of yield for dates in the areas, such methods as the use of tolerant cultivars of dates in comparison with temperature and rainfall changes in the regions are recommended.
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