پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم در کشاورزی و ارتباط آن با رانت شالیکاران (مطالعه موردی استان مازندران)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
حمید امیرنژاد
1
,
عاطفه عمویی
2
,
سید مجتبی مجاوریان
3
1 - دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.
2 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.
3 - دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری.
کلید واژه: تغییر اقلیم, استان مازندران, رانت شالیکاران, رهیافت ریکاردین, گشتاورهای تعمیمیافته,
چکیده مقاله :
تغییر اقلیم همه بخشهای اقتصادی را تا اندازهای تحت تأثیر قرار میدهد، اما بخش کشاورزی شاید حساسترین و آسیبپذیرترین بخش باشد چراکه محصولات کشاورزی وابستگی زیادی به منابع اقلیمی دارند. در این مطالعه سعی شده است تا با تبیین تئوریک و طراحی یک مدل در چارچوب رهیافت ریکاردین و با استفاده از تکنیک دادههای پانل پویا مبتنی بر روش گشتاورهای تعمیمیافته، اثر تغییر اقلیم (تغییرات دما، بارندگی و رطوبت) بر تولید برنج و سود بهعنوان معیاری از رانت شالیکاران شهرستانهای استان مازندران در دوره 1390-1379 مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. نتایج نشان دادند متغیرهای اقلیمی اثرات معنیدار و غیرخطی بر تولید هر هکتار و رانت شالیکاران دارد بهگونه‌ای که در شهرستان ساری بیش‌ترین رانت منفی (5108220- ریال در هکتار) و در شهرستان نوشهر کم‌ترین رانت منفی (1601270- ریال در هکتار) بدست آمد. افزایش دمای فصل بهار و تابستان اثری مثبت بر رانت داشته و هرگاه از کم‌ترین مقدار بحرانی کم‌تر شود، رانت منفی میشود. با توجه به دمای فصل تابستان، بیش‌ترین رانت بدست آمده مربوط به شهرستان ساری، 154372 ریال در هکتار و کم‌ترین آن مربوط به شهرستان نوشهر، 6084 ریال در هکتار میباشد. با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده و هم‌چنین، ادامه روند افزایش دما و کاهش بارندگی پیشنهاد میشود اتخاذ سیاستهای حمایتی دولت برای افزایش انگیزه زارعین در استفاده بهینه از منابع آب مورد توجه سیاستگزاران و برنامهریزان قرار گیرد. طبقه‌بندی JEL: Q1, Q5, Q54
In this study, it was tried that by theoretically elaboration and designing a model in form of Ricardian model and using panel data approach based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model, the effects of climate change on production and profit as a measure of rice producer rent within cities of Mazandaran province during the period 1990-2011. Results of this study showed that the climate variables have significantly non-linear impacts on Rice production and cultivation area rent. Within cities where cultivation temperature has been effective on farmers’ rent, Sari has the most negative rents (-5108220, Rial per hectare) than other cities and the Noshahr has least negative rent (-1601270, Rial per hectare). Enhancing spring and summer temperatures have positive effect on rent, and once it becomes less than critical value, rent would be negative. Due to the temperature in summer, the highest rent achieved in the Sari (154372, Rial per hectare) and the lowest was Noshahr with 6084 Rial per hectare. rent and by increasing this factor, rent would alleviate.
Refrences
- Amirbeygi, H., & Ahmadi Asoor, A. (2007). Air hygiene and pollution control (environmental and industrial). Andisherafi, First edition, Tehran.
- Ashrafzadeh, H.R., & Mehregan, N. (2009). Advanced panel data econometrics. 1st edition, university of Tehran, cooperative research institute publications, p: 147.
- Amiraslany, A. (2010). The Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach. Ph.D thesis in Agricultural Economics, University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon, April 2010. 169 p.
- Baltagi B.H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. 3rd edition. John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, West Sussex, England.
- Baniasad, F. (2012). Study of economic impact of climate change on wheat farmers in Razavi Khorasan Province: Ricardian approach. Master's thesis in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of agriculture, Tarbiat Modarres University.
- Agricultural statistics organization of Mazandaran Province. 2006.
- Chen Y., Wu Zh., Okamoto K., Han X., Ma G., Chien H., & Zhao J. (2013). The impacts of climate change on crops in China: A Ricardian analysis. Global and Planetary Change, 104: 61–74.
- Deressa T.T., Hassan R., & Poonyth D. (2005). Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugarcane growing regions. Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), December. 44(4): 524-541.
- Diptimayee, M., & Naresh Chandra, S. (2014). Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Sector of Coastal Odisha. 5th International Conference on Environmental Science and Development. APCBEE Procedia, 10: 241 – 245.
- Goodarzi, A., Massah Bavani, A., Zohrabi, N., & Lotfi, S. (2013). Detection of temperature and precipitation trends and their attribution it to the greenhouse gases (Case study: West Azerbaijan Province). Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 39(3): 111-128.
- Khalilian, S., Shemshadi, K., Mortazavi, S.A., & Ahmadian, M. (2014). Investigating the welfare effects caused by climate changes in Wheat crop in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(3): 292-300.
- Lan, M., Singh, K.K., Rathore, L., Srinivasan, G., & Saseendran, S.A. (1998). Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate. Agricultural and Forest Meterology, 89: 101–114.
- Matin, A., Jafari, S.F., Abbasi Anarkoli, S.D., Samadi Khadem, Sh., & Khakpoor, M. (2013). Investigating the climate change in Mazandaran province and its impact on the macroclimate of the region. Second conference on environmental planning and management, 1-12.
- Mendelsohn, R. (2001). Global Warming and the American Economy. Edward Elgar Publishing Inc, Massachusetts.
- Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W.D., & Shaw, D. (1994). The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review, 84: 753–71.
- Meshki, M. (2011). Determining factors affecting the performance of bourse companies using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Generalized Estimate Squares (EGLS). Journal of Accounting Advances, Shiraz University, 3(1): 91-119.
- Molua, E.L., & Lambi, CM. (2007). The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Cameroon. Policy Research Working Paper, 1-33.
- Nasiri M., and Nicknejad Y. 2011. Factors causing damage in Rice fields. First edition, Varesh publications, P 96.
- Noroozi, R., & Khosravi, M. (2010). The Sources and sink of Methane greenhouse gas emission and its role in global warming. 4th International Congress of the Islamic World Geographers (ICIWG), 14-16, Zahedan, Iran.
- Pourkhabbaz, A.R., & Pourkhabbaz, H.R. (2002). The most important environmental disturbances in the present century (Acid rain, layer ozone, global warming), the publication of Mashhad.
- Raeini Serjaz, M. (2010). Investigating the trend of rainfall change and drought monitoring in the eastern province of Mazandaran: The Case study: Babolsar. The first international conference on plant, water, soil and air modeling, International Center for Advanced Science and Technology and Natural Sciences, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, 1-12.
- Razaghian, H., Haghshenas, Gatabi, R.A.,& Mohseni, B. (2013). Investigating the trend of climate change in Mazandaran province using extreme temperature and precipitation indexes. 5th International Conference on Integrated Natural Disaster Management, Tehran.
- Rezaei, A., Mortazavi, S.A., & Baghestani, M. (2012). Evaluating the economic impact of climate change on Wheat in Iran. The 1st national conference on solutions to access sustainable development in agriculture. Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, 1-6.
- Seo Niggol, S., & Mendelshon, R. (2008). A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on South American farmers. Chilean journal of agricultural research, 68 (1):69-79.
- Soleymani, N. M. (2010). Investigating the effect of climate change on pure wheat irrigation. Master's thesis, Faculty of engineering and technology, college of agriculture and natural resources, University of Tehran.
- Souri, A. (2013). Econometrics combined with the use of Eviews 7.0 and Stata 12.0, Volume II, first edition, publication of theology, 283-1022.
- Talebi, A., Taheri, R., & Eskandari, M. (2011). The effect of drought as one of the aspects of climate change on agricultural water products. National conference on agrometeorology and agricultural water management, college of agriculture and natural resources, University of Tehran, 1-8.
- Thapa, S., & Joshi, G.R. (2011). A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen, 1-16.
- Vahedi, H., Fazl'Ola, R., Emadi, S.M. (2016). A Study of Climate Change on Water Resources in Mazandaran Province. International Conference on Civil, Architecture and Urban Planning of Contemporary Iran.
- Van Passel, S., Massetti, E., & Mendelsohn, R. (2012). A Ricardian analysis of the climate change on European Agriculture. Nota di Lavoro No. 83. Milano: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Vaseghi, A., & Esmaeili, A. (2008). Investigation of the economic impacts of climate change on agricultural sector of Iran: A Ricardian approach (Case study: Wheat). JWSS, 12(45):685-696.
- Wang J., Mendelsohn R., Dinar A., Huang J., Rozell S., & Zhang L. (2009). The impact of climate change on china’s agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40: 323-337.
_||_