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کد مقاله : FEJ-2003-2536 (R1) بازدید : 255 صفحه: 446 - 478

20.1001.1.22519165.1399.11.44.20.5

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

رابطه سرریز شبکه ای بازدهی بازارهای سرمایه‌گذاری با رویکرد دیبولد و یلماز

محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی مالی

سیدامیرمهدی هاشمی 1 , محمد خدایی وله زاقرد 2 , عباس معمارنژاد 3 , اصغر ابوالحسنی 4

1 - گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - گروه اقتصاد،واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
4 - گروه اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/01/11 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/01/29 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/07/01

کلید واژه: بورس, سر ریز نوسانات نامتقارن, خودرگرسیون برداری,

چکیده مقاله :

بازار سرمایه یکی از مهترین منابع تامین مالی بنگاه های اقتصادی در بلند‌مدت است. از آنجاییکه بازار سرمایه همواره از موضاعات مدنظر سیاست‌گذاران و سرمایه‌گذاران بوده است پرداختن به عوامل اثر گذار بر آن از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است.اثرات سرریز و سرایت در بین بازارهای مالی باتوجه به ارتباط و حساسیت سرمایه به رخدادهای اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی در دهه اخیر از اهمیت بالایی در مطالعات انجام شده در حوزه ادبیات مالی و اقتصادی برخوردار شده است. مطالعه حاضر نیز به بررسی اثرات سرریز در بازدهی بازارهای ارز، طلا، نفت، شاخص جهانی فلزات، مسکن و بخش بانکی برشاخص بورس اوراق بهادار طی دوره زمانی 1385 تا 1398 و به صورت ماهانه پرداخته است. به منظور افزایش دقت در تحلیل روند رشد اقتصادی ایران، افزایش انعطاف پذیری نتایج و برآورد اثرات سر ریز به صورت نامتقارن از مدل سرریز نوسانات با استفاده از رویکرد دیبولد و یلماز بهره گرفته شده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Financial development is one of the most important causes of economic growth. Economic growth is a key variable of every economy, so analysis the factors that affect Economic growth is important, too. In this paper, the effect of financial development on the economic growth of the country during the period of 1989 to 2016 has been studied. In order to increase accuracy and flexibility of results, we use the TVP-FAVAR model which make possible to change coefficient and participant of individual variables at any point of time. At first, latent financial development variable in Iran economy has been estimated; Then, we specify the model of study by using the variables of liquidity volume, oil revenues, economic growth and financial development.The results of the impulse- response functions show that a shock in the latent financial development has had a positive effect on economic growth during the years under study. The results also show that the shock caused by oil revenues will only lead to an increase in economic growth over the short term and will be adjusted over several years, while the effects of liquidity shocks on the results of most years have had a neutral effect on economic growth.

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_||_

 

 

 

. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.012.

Abdalla, S. Z. S. (2013). Modelling the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: The Case of Saudi Arabia. Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business, 2(10), 10-20.

Abdelghani Echchabi1, Dhekra Azouzi “Oil Price Fluctuations and Stock Market Movements: An Application in Oman”   DOI: 10.13106/jafeb.2017.vol4.no2.1

Acharya, V., L. Pedersen, T. Philippe, and M. Richardson, “Measuring Systemic Risk,” Manuscript, Stern School, New York University,2010

Adler, M. and B. Dumas, 1983, International portfolio choices and corporation finance: A synthesis, Journal of Finance 38, 925-984.

Adrian, T. and M. Brunnermeier (2008), “CoVaR,” Staff Report 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Adrian, Tobias and Shin, Hyun Song, Financial Intermediaries, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy (September 2008). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1266714.

Adusei, Michael (2014), Does Economic Growth Promote Financial Development? Research in Applied Economics, Vol 6, No 2, PP: 209-220.

Al Hayky, A., & Naim, N. (2016). The Relationship Between Oil Price and Stock Market Index: An Empirical Study from Kuwait. As presented at Middle East Economic Association 15th International Conference.

Allen, F., A. Babus, and E. Carletti, “Financial Connections and Systemic Risk,” NBER Working Paper 16177, 2010.  DOI: 10.3386/w16177.

Arouri, M., & Rault, C. (2012). Oil Prices and Stock Markets in GCC Countries: Empirical Evidence from Panel Analysis. International Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 242-253.

Baron,David.” Fluctuaing Exchang Rates and The Pricing of Expports”Wiley Onlne Library,1976. DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1976.tb00430.x.

Bocola,l, The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 124, issue 4, 879 – 926, 2016.   DOI: 10.1086/686734.

Chaiechi, Taha (2012), Financial Development and Economic Growth through a Post-Keynesian Lens: Hong Kong Case Study, Employment, Growth and Development. A Post-Keynesian Approach, PP: 198- 209.

Chien-Chung Nieh” The effect of the Asian financial crisis on the relationships among open macroeconomic factors for Asian countries” Pages 491-502,2010. DOI: 10.1080/00036840110046827

Das, D., Bhowmik, P., Jana, R.K. A multiscale analysis of stock return co-movements and spillovers: Evidence from Pacific developed markets Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018, Volume 502.

Diebold, F.X. and K. Yilmaz, “Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Measurement of Volatility Spillovers,” International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming, with discussion ,2011. DOI: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbv021

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Shinagawa,Y, Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers, Washington : International Monetary Fund ,2014. ISSN: 9781498365628/1018-5941.

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Yau, H. & Nieh, C. C. (2006). Interrelations among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate. Journal of Asian Economics, 17: 535-552.

Yoon.C., Furceri,D. Choi,S., Albrizio,S., “International bank lending channel of monetary policy” Journal of International Money and Finance,Volume 102, April 2020, 102124. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102124

Zhang, x. Charls, M. Boehmer, E. “Potential pilot problems: Treatment spillovers in financial regulatory experiments,” Volume 135, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 68-87. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.05.016

Zhang. J, Wang. L and Wang. S, (2012), Financial Development and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from China Journal of Comparative Economics, 40, 393-41.

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