تأثیر سیاست تقسیم سود سهام بر ثبات مالی بانک‌های ایران

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد سنجی مالی و روش‌های کمّی

سید یحیی اسدالهی ¹ , سمیه متین ² , مرضیه یوسفی نژاد ³

1 - گروه حسابداری، واحد ملایر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملایر، ایران.
2 - گروه حسابداری، واحد ملایر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملایر، ایران.
3 - گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/01/05 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/03/18 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/04/01

کلید واژه: سود انباشته, ثبات مالی, سود سهام پرداختی,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف: پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تأثیر سیاست تقسیم سود سهام بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها می‌پردازد. بدین منظور رابطه بین سیاست تقسیم سود سهام و ثبات سیاست تقسیم سود سهام با ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت مورد آزمون قرار گرفت.روش‌شناسی پژوهش: در این پژوهش 23 بانک پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار در فاصله بین سال‌های 1391 الی 1399 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده‌های پژوهش از نوع داده‌های ترکیبی بوده و با به‌کارگیری روش برآورد مدل خودرگرسیون برداری به روش هم‌انباشتگی جوهانسون - جوسیلیوس و مدل تصحیح خطای برداری مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفته است.یافته‌ها: نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که نسبت سود سهام پرداختی بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری دارد و همچنین نسبت سود انباشته نیز بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت تأثیر منفی و معنی‌داری دارد و یافته‌ها نشان داد که ثبات در سیاست تقسیم سود سهام بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری دارد.اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش می‌تواند مدیران را در اتخاذ تصمیمات بهینه در خصوص تعیین میزان سود تقسیمی بهینه و اتخاذ سیاست‌های منطقی توزیع سود نقدی سهام با درنظرگرفتن اهمیت حفظ ثبات مالی بانک‌ها یاری رساند به‌طوری‌که امکان پیش‌بینی دقیق‌تر بازده آتی سهام را برای سهامداران و تحلیلگران مالی فراهم نماید.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Purpose: The present study examines the effect of dividend policy on the financial stability of banks. For this purpose, the relationship between the dividend policy and the stability of the dividend policy with the financial stability of banks in the long and short term was tested. Methodology: In this research, 23 banks admitted to the Tehran stock exchange and over-the-counter stock exchange in the period between 2011 and 2019 were examined. The data of the research was collected with the approach of mixed data and using the estimation method of the vector autoregression model by the method of co-accumulation of Johansson-Josilius and the vector error correction model and it was statistically analyzed with the help of Eviews software.Findings: The results of the research show that the ratio of dividends paid has a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of banks in the long term, and the ratio of accumulated profits also has a negative and significant effect on the financial stability of banks in the long term, and the findings showed that stability in the distribution policy Dividends have a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of banks in the long term.Originality/scientific added value: The importance of the financial stability of banks in the monetary system has made it necessary to study the effect of profit sharing policies on the financial stability of banks. Dividends can have a great impact on the cost of capital, financial risks and the future price of banks' stocks.

منابع و مأخذ:

Adusei, M. (2015). The impact of bank size and funding risk on bank stability. Cogent Economics & Finance, 3(1), 1111489.

Agyei, S. K., & Marfo-Yiadom, E. (2011). Dividend Policy and Bank Performance in Ghana. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(4), 202-207.

Ali, M. S. (2020). Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Bird-in-Hand-Dividends Policy in the Stability of Jordanian Listed Banks. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(4), 96-110.

Azadeh, S., Aslizadeh, A., & Khakzar bafruei, M. (2022). Dynamic analysis of the performance of the iranian banking system in uncertainty condition. Advances in Finance and Investment, 3(8), 31-60. [In Persian]

Badavar Nahandi, Y., & Safarpour, M. (2017). A Conceptual Study of Profit Sharing Theories and Its Application in Financial Theories. 4th International Congress on Modern Research in Management, Accounting and Economics Studies, Shiraz, 220-232. [In Persian]

Carlson, M., Correia, S., & Luck, S. (2022). The Effects of Banking Competition on Growth and Financial Stability: Evidence from the National Banking Era. Journal of Political Economy, 130(2), 462-520.

Correa, R., Garud, K., Londono, J. M., & Mislang, N. (2020). Sentiment in Central Banks’ Financial Stability Reports. Review of Finance, 25(1), 85-120.

Esavi, M., Tari, F., Ansari Samani, H., & Amouzad Khalili, H. (2017). The relationship between stability indicators and technical efficiency of Iranian banks during the years (2004-2016). Financial Economics, 12(44), 1-20. [In Persian]

Etemadi, H., Chalaki, P. (2005). The relationship between performance and cash dividend distribution in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 1998-2002. Accounting and Auditing Reviews, 12(1), 31-47. [In Persian]

Fadare, S. O. (2011). Banking Sector Liquidity and Financial Crisis in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 3-11.

Farzinvash, A., & Ghorban Shiran, A. (2012). Creating Financial Stability Index and Survey in the Developing Countries. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies, 0(22), 3-28. [In Persian]

Haghighat Monfared, J., & Saraeenia, E. (2011). The Strategy Formulation for Customer Relationship Management System with Balance Score Card Approach (CRM SCORE CARD) in Sapco Company. Jounal of Marketing Management, 6(10), 119-144. [In Persian]

Heidarzadeh Hanzaei, A. (2022). Investigation the Effect of Credit Risk on Financial Stability in the Islamic Banking System. New Approaches to Jihadi Management and Islamic Governance, 2(2), 105-123. [In Persian]

Imran, K., Usman, M., & Nishat, M. (2013). Banks dividend policy: Evidence from Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 32, 88–90.

Izadkhah, M., Izadkhah, M., & Raei, R. (2022). Investigating the Impact of Liquidity Creation on Profitability and Financial Stability of Banks. Financial Management Perspective, 12(38), 51-73. [In Persian]

Jepkemoi, A., Odoyo, F., Simiyu, R., & Onyango, R. (2019). The influence of financial performance on dividend payout of commercial banks listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya. Strategic Journal of Business & Change Management, 6(3), 371-387.

Kaviani, M., & Ashraf, R. (2020). Diversification of loan portfolios, market structure, and financial stability of banks. Journal of Monetary and Banking Researches, 12(42), 601-628. [In Persian]

Khoshkar, F., Nemati, N., & Salimi Tazehkand, A. (2018). Investigating the effect of financing methods on dividend policy in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Research in Accounting and Economic Sciences, 3(4), 21-32. [In Persian]

Kim, H., Batten, J. A., & Ryu, D. (2020). Financial crisis, bank diversification, and financial stability: OECD countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 65, 94–104.

Luvembe, L., Njangiru, M. J., & Mungami, E. S. (2014). Effect of Dividend Payout on Market Value of Listed Banks in Kenya. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development, 3(11), 1-21.

Maleki, Gh. (2018). The Impact of Corporate Governance on Financial Stability. Journal of Modern Research Approaches in Management and Accounting, 3(9), 73-85. [In Persian]

Mirbagheri Hir, M. N., Nahidi Amirkhaiz, M. R., & Shokohifard, S. (2017). Assessment of Financial Stability and Factors Affecting the Financial Stability of the Country's Banks. Quarterly Journal of Financial and Economic Policies, 4(15), 23-42. [In Persian]

Mustahsan, E., Habib, A., Muhammad, S. U., Haq, & Ali, S. (2021). The Impact of Operating Cash Flows on Financial Stability of Commercial Banks: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Asian Finance, 8(11), 223-234.

Oktaviyanti, D; & Purnawan, M. E. (2019). The Behaviour of Banking Financial Stability in ASEAN‐5. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 38(4), 329–344.

Pourebrahimi, M. R., Vatankhah, P., & Khosrowshahi, S. A. (2011). Stock market liquidity, firm characteristics and dividend yield. Financial Management Perspectives, 2(5), 125-137. [In Persian]

Ramezanzadeh Zeidi, A. (2009). Investigating the effective factors on the dividend policy of chemical and pharmaceutical companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. Management Quarterly, 6(16), 80-87. [In Persian]

Rezanejad, A. (2010). Financial ratios of performance in banks / the second part. Bank and economy, 110, 45-50. [In Persian]

Safarzadeh, M. H., Eskandari, R., & Jafarimanesh, I. (2020). Design and Examination of a Model for Stabilization of Banks Based on Financial Reporting Quality. Journal of Asset Management and Financing, 8(3), 25-52. [In Persian]

Shafiee, S., Khan Mohammadi, M. H., Karami, A., & Ghoroghi, M. (2022). The role of operational risk events database in bank risk management. Advances in Finance and Investment, 3(6), 153-178. [In Persian]

Taheri, S. N., Bijan, B., Zandi, F., & Rabiei, M. (2022). Investigating the effect of stability in the banking industry on the efficiency of the banking system of the Iranian economy. Economic Strategy, 10(39), 695-726. [In Persian]

Trinh, V. Q., Kara, A., & Elnahass, M. (2022). Dividend payout strategies and bank survival likelihood: A cross-country analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 102129.