Identifying future climatic change patterns at basin level in Baja California, México

محورهای موضوعی : Environment

Teodoro Teodoro Carlón Allende ¹ , Erna López Granados ² , Manuel Mendoza ³

1 - CONACYT-Instituto de Geofísica, Unidad Morelia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, México
2 - Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Morelia Michoacán, México
3 - Centro Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, México

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/06/14 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/26 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/07/09

کلید واژه: Spatial analysis, Climate models, Future climate patterns, (fifth-generation atmospheric general circulation model) MPI ECHAM5, (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 1) HADGEM1,

چکیده مقاله :

Background and objective: The global average surface temperature increased by about 0.6°C, and global sea level increased by 15 to 20 cm during the last century. As the temperature rise, crops and forests will experience failure. In Baja California, Mexico, there is no systematic evaluation of the spatial variability of future temperature and precipitation. The aim of this research was to identify how the precipitation and temperature will change in the basins according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projections.Materials and methods: We used the MPI ECHAM5 model scenarios A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic) of total annual precipitation (TAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) for 2030 and 2050; we also used the HADGEM1 model, (scenarios A2 and B2) of TAP and MAT (2030-2050). All procedures were carried out in a geographic information system.Results and conclusion: We evaluate for the first-time which basins at the peninsula will be more affected by changes in TAP and MAP. The relative increase of MAT per basin depicted a trend north to south. The highest values reaching 6.0° to 6.5°, the minimum values are around 2.0°. The reduction of TAP will be 21 mm from the baseline to 2030. The model also depicted an increase in TAP in the south of the peninsula (12-40 mm). The northern basins will suffer by reduction of water availability, especially for agriculture activities. The southern basins could be affected more by flooding and landslides.

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