ارائه مدلی پویا برای توسعه بهینه و پایدار استفاده از اتوبوس‌های شهری گازسوز (CNG) تهران

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتی

Seyed Jamalaldin Razavinasab ¹ , Mahdi Fadaei Ashkiki ² , Mahdi Homayounfar ³ , Maryam Ooshaksaraie ⁴

1 - PhD student in Industrial Management in Production and Operations, Department of Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/08/05 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/02/11 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/03/05

کلید واژه: پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها, اتوبوس‌های شهری گازسوز (CNG), مدیریت مصرف انرژی,

چکیده مقاله :

امروزه مدیریت مصرف انرژی ازآن‌جهت اهمیت دارد که علاوه بر حفظ ذخایر خدادادی برای آیندگان، سلامت محیط‌زیست، اقتصاد و امنیت انرژی کشور را تضمین می‌کند. در شهر تهران آلودگی هوا به یکی از بحران‌هایی تبدیل‌شده که هرسال جان هزاران نفر را به خطر می‌اندازد. از سوی دیگر تأمین سوخت گازوئیل در شرایط سیاسی فعلی کشور و پرداخت یارانه کلان به این سوخت، دولت را دچار چالش نموده است. یکی از راه‌های جلوگیری از این مشکلات، استفاده از خودروهای گازسوز (CNG) در سیستم حمل‌ونقل عمومی شهری است. متأسفانه در سال‌های اخیر استفاده از اتوبوس‌های گازسوز (CNG) در سیستم حمل‌ونقل عمومی کم شده است. این مقاله به استناد رهیافت‌های تاریخی و با استفاده از روش پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها، عوامل و بازخوردهای مؤثر بر افزایش پایدار تعداد اتوبوس‌های گازسوز (CNG) را شناسایی و مدلی پویا برای توسعه بهینه و پایدار استفاده از اتوبوس‌های شهری گازسوز (CNG) ارائه نموده است. پس از اعتبارسنجی مدل و شبیه‌سازی بازه 10 ساله، نتایج نشان داد درصورتی‌که حاکمیت به‌صورت جدی در حوزه خرید اتوبوس‌های گازسوز عمل نکند تا سال 1410 سهم اتوبوس‌های گازسوز (CNG) در ناوگان حمل‌ونقل از 38 درصد به 14 درصد کاهش میابد. در صورت افزایش سالانه 282 دستگاه اتوبوس گازسوز (CNG) به ناوگان اتوبوس‌رانی شهری تهران تا سال 1410 تعداد اتوبوس‌های دیزلی و گازسوز (CNG) برابر و شرایط پایدار نسبی برقرار می‌شود. در این شرایط میزان آلایندگی ناشی از سوخت ناوگان اتوبوس‌ها کاهش و صرفه‌جویی اقتصادی ازنظر پرداخت یارانه سوخت برای دولت به همراه خواهد داشت.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Energy consumption management is essential because the natural resources should be preserved for the future people, and environment, the economy and the energy security of the country are also considered. Air pollution in Tehran has increased very much and thousands of people die every year because of it. In addition, the supply of diesel fuel under the current political circumstances of the country and the allocation of high value of subsidies to it have become a big problem for the government; the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses for public transportation can be a solution to this problem. However, the CNG buses are not widely used in recent years. Based on historical approaches and using system dynamics (SD), the factors and feedback affecting the sustainable increase in the number CNG buses are identified in this paper and a dynamic model is introduced for the optimal and sustainable development of CNG buses. The model was validated and a 10-year period was simulated; according to the results, if the government does not increase the rate of its purchased CNG buses, the rate of the CBG buses being used now will be reduced from 38 percent to 14 percent in 2032. If 282 new CNG buses are purchased annually, the number of CNG buses and the number of diesel buses will be almost the same in 2032. Accordingly, fuel pollution produced by the buses and the fuel subsidies will be reduced.

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