تاثیر اصلاحات پارامتریک بر تصمیم گیری های مالی در تامین مالی تعهدات بلندمدت
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Hadi Farhadi
1
,
Babak Jamshidinavid
2
,
Mehrdad Ghanbari
3
,
Rohollah Jamshid Pour
4
1 - Employee of the General Office of the Social Security Organization of Hamadan Province
2 - Deputy for Management and Resources Development
3 - Department of Accounting,Kermanshah Branch,Islamic Azad University,Kermanshah,Iran.
4 - Department of Accounting.kermanshah Branch.islamic Azad university.Kermanshah.Iran
تاریخ دریافت : 1400/01/16
تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/24
تاریخ انتشار : 1400/11/17
کلید واژه:
"اصلاحات پارامتریک",
"تامین مالی",
"تصمیم گیری مالی",
"اکچوئری",
"تعهدات بلند مدت ",
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از اصلاحاتی که در سالهای اخیر در مورد تصمیم گیری های مالی در پرداخت تعهدات بلند مدت مورد توجه قرار گرفته است سازو کار تعادل در منابع مالی است. زمانی که ریسک های جمعیتی، مانند کاهش نیروی کار و ریسک های اقتصادی، مانند کسری مالی به دلیل عملکرد بازارهای مالی و قوانین و مقررات وجود داشته باشند، تصمیم گیری های مالی برای حفظ نقدینگی و پایداری سیستم در بلند مدت اعمال می شوند. پژوهش حاضر به مقایسه مدلهای پارامتریک موثر در تصمیم گیری های مالی برای تامین منابع مالی تعهدات بلند مدت سازمان تامین اجتماعی با استفاده از دانش اکچوئری می پردازد به منظور دستیابی به اهداف پژوهش با تغییر در پارامترهای اساسی اصلاحات پارامتریک، تاثیر آنها بر منابع سازمان با استفاده از دانش اکچوئری و نرم افزار های محاسباتی مربوطه نظیر، ILO -PENS برآورد شده و سپس تاثیر آنها را در پایداری منابع سازمان در یک بازه70ساله برآورد شده است. طبق نتایج بدست آمده در صورت اعمال هر یک از اصلاحات پارامتریک شامل: تغییر در نرخ حق بیمه، تغییر در سابقه پرداخت حق بیمه برای بازنشستگی وتغییر در سن بازنشستگی، نقطه سر به سری منابع سازمان تامین اجتماعی به ترتیب تا سالهای 1413، 1414و 1416 به تعویق میافتد و به این ترتیب در این وقفه کوتاه مدت برای مدیران سازمان تامین اجتماعی علاوه بر فراهم شدن منابع لازم جهت پرداخت تعهدات بلندت، فرصت کافی برای تصمیم گیری در خصوص چگونگی انجام اصلاحات ساختاری نیز بدست می آید.
چکیده انگلیسی:
One of the reforms that has been considered in recent years regarding financial decisions in the payment of long-term liabilities is the balance of financial resources mechanism. When demographic risks, such as labor shortages and economic risks, such as financial deficits due to the functioning of financial markets and past rules and regulations, exist, financial decisions are made to maintain the liquidity and stability of the system in the long run. Long-term liabilities in payment to pension fund members require regular advice and calculations in different financial periods in order to balance and maintain the intergenerational reserves of the fund. The present study compares the parametric models effective in financial decisions to finance the long-term obligations of the Social Security Organization using actuarial knowledge in order to achieve the research objectives by changing the basic parameters and their impact on the organization's resources using knowledge. Actuaries and related computing software such as ILO-PENS We have estimated and then estimated their impact on the sustainability of the organization's resources over a period of 70 years for financial decision According to the results, if any of the above parametric corrections are applied to the series of resources of the Social Security Organization, respectively, up to years,2035,2036,2037 It is postponed and the necessary resources are provided to pay your long-term obligations. In this short break, there is ample opportunity to decide how to make structural reforms.
منابع و مأخذ:
Ali Naghi Khani, H. (2018). Pension sustainability index 2014. Social Security Journal, 14 (2), 159-189.
Behzadi, H. (2011).Principles and concepts of pension fund actuaries. Qom: Sohofi publications. (In Persian).
Dehghani, M., & Kafi, M. (2017).The role of actuaries on financing methods in social security pension schemes. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Taxes, 40(6), 48-62.
Grishchenko, N. (2016).Pensions after pension reforms: A comparative analysis of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 36(1), 3-9 , Doi: 10.1016.S2212-5671(16)30010-7
Haberman, S., & Zimbidis, A. (2002). An investigation of the pay-as-you-go financing method using a contingency fund and optimal control techniques. North American Actuarial Journal, 6(2), 60-75, Doi:10.1080.10920277.2002.10596044.
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Khaki, G. (2011). Research with emphasis of thesis writing. Fujan publications, Tehran, Iran.
Mahdipour Ghobadloo, Sh. (2017). Stability retirement public and parametric correction deposit. Social security, journal, 50(14), 67-86.
Michaeil, S. (2018). Actuary science, translator Ali Sadegh khani and Haleh Farzaneh the first publisher. Publication institute social security research, 2018, Tehran, Iran.
Mir, S, J. & Ganjeyan, M., & Foruhesh, G. (2014). Challenges of Pension Funds: A Case Study of Agriculture Jihad Pension Fund. Quarterly Journal of Strategic and great Policies, 2(7), 111-139.
Najarpour, H. (2019). Integrated Model for Identifying Effective Challenges on the Implementation of a Multi- Pillar System of Social Security, Social Security Journal, 15(4), 39-54.
Sadeghpoor, B. (2019). Valuation of Cash Balance Pension Plans with Hull-White Method. Social security Journal, 14(4), 43-66.
Shakori, M.)2010). Effects of structural changes in the age of the Iranian population on the National Pension Fund. Insurance Studies and Research Unit. Pension fund auditing institute, 1-31.
Shariffi, M, H. (2019). Comprehensive reports the instability finance in the company of social security reasons and proposals. Statistic office, calculation in economics in social security, Si05df, 10-14.
Tatiana, S. (2019). Social security program throughout the world. Washington, DC 20254SSA Publication, 13-11712, 17-60.
Tork Tabrizi, M. (2018). An overview of financing methods in social security schemes, Office of Economic and Social Planning, in social security organization 97, eca, 63, 1-12.
Vidalmelia C.M. (2009). Boado Pena and O, Automatic balance mechanisms in pay as you go pension systems. The Geneva papers on risk and insurance issues and practice, 34(2), 287-317.
Zobdeh Shirkohee, H. (2020). Providing resources of future design management. Assistant development in management and human resources. Publication institute social security research, Tehran, Iran.
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Ali Naghi Khani, H. (2018). Pension sustainability index 2014. Social Security Journal, 14 (2), 159-189.
Behzadi, H. (2011).Principles and concepts of pension fund actuaries. Qom: Sohofi publications. (In Persian).
Dehghani, M., & Kafi, M. (2017).The role of actuaries on financing methods in social security pension schemes. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Taxes, 40(6), 48-62.
Grishchenko, N. (2016).Pensions after pension reforms: A comparative analysis of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 36(1), 3-9 , Doi: 10.1016.S2212-5671(16)30010-7
Haberman, S., & Zimbidis, A. (2002). An investigation of the pay-as-you-go financing method using a contingency fund and optimal control techniques. North American Actuarial Journal, 6(2), 60-75, Doi:10.1080.10920277.2002.10596044.
Hassan Zadeh Esfahni, M. (2017).ways of financing in social security (designing actuary scheme). Social security, journal 29(3)162-190.
Heandi, H., & Karimi, S., & Ahmadi, S. (2019). Research for disable insurers in Iran and 50 countries in the World. Social security, journal, 53(14), 139-190.
(2014). World social protectic report building bconomic recovery binclusivev development and social justice. Geneva international labour organization, 30(4), 12-18, Doi: 10.1096.42212-2014-30010-7.
Khandan, A. (2017). Funding for retirement pension in Iran: Challenges and corrective strategies. Social Security Journal, 13(5), 53-72.
Khaki, G. (2011). Research with emphasis of thesis writing. Fujan publications, Tehran, Iran.
Mahdipour Ghobadloo, Sh. (2017). Stability retirement public and parametric correction deposit. Social security, journal, 50(14), 67-86.
Michaeil, S. (2018). Actuary science, translator Ali Sadegh khani and Haleh Farzaneh the first publisher. Publication institute social security research, 2018, Tehran, Iran.
Mir, S, J. & Ganjeyan, M., & Foruhesh, G. (2014). Challenges of Pension Funds: A Case Study of Agriculture Jihad Pension Fund. Quarterly Journal of Strategic and great Policies, 2(7), 111-139.
Najarpour, H. (2019). Integrated Model for Identifying Effective Challenges on the Implementation of a Multi- Pillar System of Social Security, Social Security Journal, 15(4), 39-54.
Sadeghpoor, B. (2019). Valuation of Cash Balance Pension Plans with Hull-White Method. Social security Journal, 14(4), 43-66.
Shakori, M.)2010). Effects of structural changes in the age of the Iranian population on the National Pension Fund. Insurance Studies and Research Unit. Pension fund auditing institute, 1-31.
Shariffi, M, H. (2019). Comprehensive reports the instability finance in the company of social security reasons and proposals. Statistic office, calculation in economics in social security, Si05df, 10-14.
Tatiana, S. (2019). Social security program throughout the world. Washington, DC 20254SSA Publication, 13-11712, 17-60.
Tork Tabrizi, M. (2018). An overview of financing methods in social security schemes, Office of Economic and Social Planning, in social security organization 97, eca, 63, 1-12.
Vidalmelia C.M. (2009). Boado Pena and O, Automatic balance mechanisms in pay as you go pension systems. The Geneva papers on risk and insurance issues and practice, 34(2), 287-317.
Zobdeh Shirkohee, H. (2020). Providing resources of future design management. Assistant development in management and human resources. Publication institute social security research, Tehran, Iran.
